Sugar Bowl: Baylor vs. Ole Miss College Football Picks

Baylor and Ole Miss meet to conclude the college football festivities on New Year's Day. Read on for our Baylor-Ole Miss Sugar Bowl picks.

Two high-flying offenses are set to ignite scoreboard fireworks during the Sugar Bowl when the Baylor Bears and Ole Miss Rebels meet on New Year's Day.

No. 7 Baylor is fresh off causing College Football Playoff chaos with its thrilling 21-16 upset victory over Oklahoma State that came down to inches and a pivotal goal-line stand.

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Meanwhile, eighth-ranked Ole Miss finished its season with four straight wins by 10 or more points.

So which side will get the edge in this matchup between two of the nation's top teams? And can either offense be slowed?

Here are my picks and predictions for the Sugar Bowl matchup between Baylor and Ole Miss (odds via DraftKings SportsBook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Baylor vs. Ole Miss Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LAWeather: Indoors

Baylor vs. Ole Miss Odds Analysis

The spread was close when it opened, and there's been little to no movement since. Ole Miss is widely the narrow favorite at -1.5, which was also the opening line at most sportsbooks. However, DraftKings and BetMGM differ slightly while listing Ole Miss at -1. The common play so far has been to back the Rebels, with 72% of the cash and 65% of the tickets coming in on Ole Miss.

Meanwhile, the total typically opened at 50.5, and it has since jumped up to 55 or 55.5. The Over is overwhelmingly drawing the action while getting 91% of the handle and 83% of the tickets.

Baylor Betting Preview

Record: 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS, 6-7 O/UKey Players: QB Gerry Bohanon, RB Abram Smith, WR Tyquan ThorntonNotable Trend: 4-1 against the spread this season when underdogs of 1.5 or more pointsBowl History: 13-12 all-time record; 2020: Lost 26-14 to Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

Baylor has rebounded swiftly after a disappointing 2-7 campaign in 2020 during Dave Aranda's first season as head coach. The Bears dropped only two contests straight up this year, and a buzzsaw offense scored 54 touchdowns.

Running back Abram Smith is a central cog in the offense. He posted the eighth-most rushing yards in the nation (1,429) while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. His season featured an incredible six games with 120-plus rushing yards and a 188-yard eruption against BYU.

Defensively, lineman Gabe Hall (six sacks) and linebacker Terrel Bernard (86 tackles) lead a unit that can swarm and smother.

Ole Miss Betting Preview

Record: 10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS, 3-9 O/UKey Players: QB Matt Corral, WR Dontario Drummond, LB Chance CampbellNotable Trend: 9-2 straight up as a favorite under Lane KiffinBowl History: 25-13 all-time record; 2021: Won 26-20 over Indiana in the Outback Bowl

The Rebels also dropped just a pair of games straight up this season, one of which was to the powerhouse Alabama Crimson Tide. The average margin of victory during their 10 wins this season was 16.3 points.

Much of the team's offensive exploits are tied to Corral and his brilliance. The likely first-round pick who has gone as high as the top 10 in NFL mock drafts is aggressive with a quick release. Those traits have led to 20 touchdowns with just four interceptions this season and a quarterback rating of 157.5.

SEE ALSO: College Football Odds, Betting lines, and Picks

Baylor vs. Ole Miss Picks

Baylor +1.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ???Over 55.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ????Baylor Over 27.5 (-104 via Fanduel) ???Baylor first half Over 13.5 (-115 via Draftkings) ????Winning margin: Baylor by 7-12 (+500 via DraftKings) ??

SEE ALSO: All College Football Picks

Baylor vs. Ole Miss Predictions

Baylor +1.5 (-110)

Both teams will boast nitro-fueled offenses capable of doing a whole lot of scoring. The difference will lie in the margins, and which squad can get a stop at a critical moment while limiting the opposition's offensive outbursts.

Baylor's defense can do just enough to be that difference-making unit at a crucial time. The Bears ranked 13th in the nation while surrendering an average of 19.2 points per game this season. That's significantly better than the Rebels' defense, which averaged 25.0 points allowed per game (54th).

There will still be plenty of scoring, but the Bears have shown this season they can contain a talented offense enough. They did that while holding then-No. 8 Oklahoma to 14 points, and the Sooners finished with the nation's 10th-ranked offense at 38.4 points per game.

Over 55.5 (-110)

Meanwhile, the Rebels rank 16th while averaging 35.9 points per game. Corral leads the way with both his arm and overall athleticism after running for 597 yards this season, including a 195-yard explosion against Tennessee.

He leads the nation's 20th-ranked passing offense that produced 282.4 yards per game. He can expose a Baylor pass defense that struggled at times and do it while leaning on Drummond, who's fresh off 14 catches for 138 yards against Mississippi State.

Baylor's offense isn't quite on the same level, but the Bears still sit among the country's top 40 while recording 32.5 points per contest. They regularly capitalize on their opportunities, resulting in a climbing point total. The Bears finished the regular season with a .877 red-zone percentage, and their quality pass protection helps them sustain drives to get there. Baylor gave up only 18 sacks all season, and the team is well-positioned to contain the Rebels' strong pass rush.

Baylor Over 27.5 (-104)

The Bears sailed over this total eight times in 2021. They fell below it in four straight games, but Bohanon sat out for two of those contests.

Abram leads a 16th-ranked rushing offense that can frequently gash opponents, and there will be lots of running room against an Ole Miss defense coughing up 182.2 rushing yards per game. Supporting Abram in the backfield is Trestan Ebner, who's versatile and tallied 1,047 yards from scrimmage in 2021.

Combine that offensive firepower and Bohanon's health with the team's red-zone efficiency and a leaky Ole Miss defense, and there's the recipe for a climbing number on Baylor's half of the scoreboard.

Baylor first half Over 13.5 (-115)

The Bears surge ahead often, most notably and recently against the then-No. 5 Cowboys in the Big 12 title game while scoring all 21 of their points in the first half.

Baylor averaged 18.5 first-half points throughout the season, and the Bears can start hot again while taking advantage of a susceptible Ole Miss defense.

Baylor to win by 7-12 (+500)

There will be no shortage of offensive displays during the Sugar Bowl, with Corral surely boosting his draft stock, and the Bears leaning on their rushing attack.

However, if the Bears can hold back Ole Miss enough and their offensive line remains steady, there's an opportunity for Baylor to pull away a bit. Connecting those dots doesn't require a leap of faith, and the value here is appealing.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Baylor-Ole Miss picks made on 12/28/2021 at 4:12 p.m. ET.