Battle of Tigers in Baton Rouge Will Go to Visiting Auburn

auburn lsu

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, October 10, 2017 9:05 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2017 9:05 PM GMT

Auburn makes the trip over to Baton Rouge for a Saturday afternoon SEC affair with LSU which will be nationally televised on CBS. With LSU off a much-needed victory in so many ways, the home Tigers go after two straight.

No. 10 Auburn at LSU (+6.5)

There has been a lot of hand-wringing about the results in Ed Orgeron's first season. At 4-2 (1-5 ATS based on closing line), LSU played three crappy games before putting together a strong performance against Florida for 40 minutes before reverting to old ways. Auburn arrives on a four-game winning streak (5-1 and 2-3-1 ATS) and is playing how we thought it might back in August: with a stingy defense and potent running game.

At last look of college football odds, Auburn was a -6.5-point favorite with total of 44.5.

 

Auburn Wins and Cover By ....

With the ground game working and touchdown-machine Kerryon Johnson finding the end zone at warp speed (11 TDs in three SEC games), the Auburn run game is averaging 228 yards a game, 22nd nationally. Though LSU will be fired up in Tiger Stadium, it has permitted 194 or more rushing yards in three of the last four games, very un-Tiger like. LSU is not getting those NFL-type defensive linemen anymore, and while these players are fast and quick they are also thinner weight-wise and being pushed around.

On defense, Auburn gave up a bunch of junk yards after building 35-3 lead against Ole Miss last week, yet is still 12th in total defense in the country and should be able to contain QB Danny Etling and a very average LSU offense, fraught with indifferent line play and ordinary wide receivers.

 

LSU Covers and Possibly Pulls Upset By ...

Running back Derrius Guice is not 100 percent healthy, but he and his fellow running backs are going to have run with a purpose to knock off Auburn. LSU does not have to average their 4.8 yards on every carry, it just needs to have be average over 40 totes on the game. That would include some big plays mixed in. If the run game works, Etling is a far better play-action passer than straight drop-back type and a run game allows that to occur.

The LSU defense has to limit 20-plus-yard gains and put QB Jarrett Stidham in third-and-long situations, since other than slant patterns at 8-12 yards, he's not been accurate down the field and has shown tendency to put head down and try to run with steady pass rush.

 

Outcome and What To Look For

Not everyone is aware that LSU wins almost 80 percent of night games at Tiger Stadium, but close to two-thirds in the daylight. With this mind, for college football picks I cannot overlook the boys from Baton Rouge figure to have a hard time moving the ball on Auburn. Add in AU under coach Gus Malzahn is one of those types of teams that runs hot and cold, and when rolling the visiting Tigers are 7-0 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more in three straight games.

Free NCAAF Pick: Auburn -6.5Best Line Offered: BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3187733, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,169,1275,19], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here