Badgers Keep It Close With LSU At Lambeau Field

Wisconsin Badgers during practice

Doug Upstone

Thursday, September 1, 2016 4:06 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 1, 2016 4:06 PM GMT

If you have grown up playing football in the Midwest or Wisconsin specifically, being able to set foot on historic Lambeau Field is a dream come true. LSU and Badgers will be facing each other on Saturday and we have the best NCAAF pick.

Saturday afternoon at 3:30 Eastern on ABC, both Wisconsin players and those from LSU get to charge out of the hallowed tunnels, with many not fully understanding what that means at their ages.

While this is really cool for certain individuals, for most making college football picks, they will give nod to the moment, think, "That's cool" and wonder if they should make the first half bet on the side or total quickly to match spread or totals play they have on the game.

Let's break down both teams.

 

How LSU Wins and Covers
Given LSU's lofty status in the rankings, hard to imagine coach Les Miles is on the hot seat, but he is, seeing he was basically fired, but found enough support to get one more year. The Tigers are loaded with talent but are not unbeatable.

For LSU to beat the college football odds and live up to sportsbooks elite status given for NCAAF futures, the offensive line has to control Wisconsin's defensive front. If Leonard Fournette (presuming ankle is 100%) can be established, this opens up other options. However, the options are only good if QB Brandon Harris completes passes. If he does and the running game is working, the Tigers are great shape.

On defense, new DC David Aranda comes from Wisconsin, where the Badgers led the nation in scoring defense. Aranda prefers 3-4 defense and has more than enough athletes to make it work. He also can help LSU breakdown Wisconsin weaknesses.

 

How Wisconsin Covers and Could Engineer Upset
It might not be Camp Randall, but it will feel like it in Green Bay. It will be imperative for the Badgers to create defensive leverage up front and have linebackers fill gaps to take away LSU's run game on first and second down. Ideally, coach Paul Chyrst and his defensive staff want to have Harris throw 30 or more times, believing that give them an edge. If you here the names Vince Biegel and Chikwe Obasih a lot, the defense is working.

Because of numerous coaching changes, the Badgers do not have All-American offensive linemen being top draft choices anymore. That does not mean the group cannot come together, but Wisky is coming off lowest rushing yards total in 20 years. Having senior RB Corey Clement back from injury will be positive and he will need to make some big plays. Bart Houston is a senior quarterback whose never shined despite talent and he will require a strong passing game and mistake-free outing for Wisconsin to hang with Tigers.

 

Compare Markets For College Football Champion From Top Sportsbooks

 

Odds and Outcome
Just Bet (Have to see Live Betting options, awesome) has LSU as 10-point favorite and original total of 48 and crumbled to 44.5.

Count me as not convinced Fournette is 100 percent and while Harris should be a better passer as a junior, he still has to do on the gridiron. The Wisconsin defense will keep them in this contest and if the more mature offensive line does their job in conjunction with Houston making plays at quarterback, this could be fun.

Cannot ignore Bucky Badger is 30-10-1 ATS as underdogs of seven points or more. Not an easy call, as I see LSU winning by anywhere from 6 to 17 points based on big plays and turnovers, but I will lean with the former.

 

Free NCAAF Picks: Wisconsin +10 -110
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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