Back Tigers +5.5 with NCAAF Picks in Missouri vs. Texas A&M

Darin Zank

Monday, November 10, 2014 2:44 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 10, 2014 2:44 PM GMT

The Missouri Tigers have won and covered the spread eight road games in a row. They also own a share of the lead in the SEC East. Can Mizzou stretch those streaks to nine, and keep pace with Georgia in the divisional race, when they take on Texas A&M Saturday night at Kyle Field?

Tigers-Aggies Betting Odds
In the very early betting most of the college football betting odds market was chalking A&M at -5.5 over Missouri. The Tigers could also be found getting +180 on the moneyline at Sport Bet.

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Tigers-Aggies: The Situation
With just eight returning starters from last year Missouri went off this season as a 33/1 shot to win the SEC, with a wins OVER/UNDER of 7.5. But as the season nears its end the Tigers are tied for the lead in the SEC East, and at 7-2 they need just one more win in their last three games to play OVER their total.

Missouri started 3-0 this season, but then got upset at home by Indiana 31-27, losing outright as a two-touchdown favorite. The Tigers then opened SEC play with a 21-20 upset of South Carolina, winning straight-up as six-point dogs on the road, but then came home and got blanked by Georgia 34-0. But Mizzou picked up the pieces after that debacle and has since won three in a row, winning at Florida 42-13, beating Vandy 24-14 and most recently topping Kentucky 20-10. The Tigers then had last week off.

After getting outgained three games in a row Missouri outrushed and outgained both the Commodores and Wildcats.

At 4-1 in conference play the Tigers are basically tied for the lead in the SEC East with Georgia, although the Bulldogs own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Meanwhile, with 14 returning starters, although none of them named “Manziel,” Texas A&M went off this season getting 25/1 to win the SEC, with a wins OVER/UNDER of seven. At 7-3 overall and 3-3 in SEC play the Aggies won't win the conference championship, and still need one win in their last two games – they finish with LSU Nov. 27 – to play OVER their total.

A&M opened this season 5-0, including that 52-28 romp at South Carolina and later a 35-28 overtime victory over Arkansas. But the schedule got a little tougher, and the Aggies lost three games in a row, falling at Mississippi State 48-31, at home to Ole Miss 35-20 and at Alabama 59-0. A&M then made a change at quarterback, suspending Kenny Hill, installing freshman Kyle Allen, for a less-than-inspiring 21-16 victory over Louisiana-Monroe. But last week the Aggies jumped up and bit Auburn, upsetting the Tigers on their home field 41-38 as 23-point underdogs.

A&M grabbed an early two-touchdown lead last week, then, with the Tigers trying to claw their way back into the game, blocked a field goal and returned it for a score on the last play of the first half to take a 35-17 advantage into the locker room. Auburn later got within a field goal with six minutes to play, but fumbled the ball away twice in A&M territory, including once at the Aggies two-yard line.

In the end A&M had been outrushed by the Tigers 363-176 and outgained 582-453.

At 3-3 in conference play the Aggies are tied for fifth place in the SEC West, 2.5 games behind first-place Mississippi State.

 

Tigers-Aggies Recent History
These former Big 12 rivals have met each of the last four seasons, Missouri winning and covering three of four games. Last year the Tigers broke a 21-21 tie on a 57-yard TD run by Henry Josey with four minutes to go for a 28-21 victory in Columbia, covering as four-point home favorites. Mizzou outrushed A&M 225-184 and outgained them 463-379.

That game saw seven touchdowns scored, and over 800 yards of offense, and yet came nowhere close to its total of 72.

 

Tigers-Aggies Betting Trends
These two teams are a combined 7-12 on the totals this season.

As mentioned above, and it's worth repeating, Missouri is 8-0 both SU and ATS in its last eight road games.

 

Personnel Update
Hill is eligible to play in this game, but as of this writing we don't know who will quarterback the Aggies. Last week, in the win over Auburn, replacement Allen hit on 19 of 29 throws for 277 yards and four touchdowns. Ultimately, though, the A&M quarterback situation will not affect how we decide to place our College Football picks in this contest.

 

Tigers-Aggies Free Pick
Texas A&M owns the advantage on offense, while Missouri owns the edge on defense. In close calls such as this we usually go with the better defense. And after their upset of Auburn last week the Aggies might be in line for a letdown. So we like the Tigers and the points in this spot.

Free College Football Pick: Missouri +5.5 at Pinnacle

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