Back Ohio to Cover -16.5 vs. Miami (OH) With Your College Football Picks

Mark Lathrop

Friday, October 9, 2015 10:00 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 10:00 PM GMT

It’s week 2 of the MAC schedule and we already have a matchup between a conference favorite in Ohio and cellar dweller, Miami (OH). Who should we back with our college football picks?

Miami (OH) started the season well enough, with a win over the Big South Presbyterian Blue Hose. I really can’t believe I didn’t know there was a team called the Blue Hose until just now, but there it is. The “Blue Hose” have since gone on to a 1-4 start, so any type of quality gleamed from that win for the RedHawks is out the window. The RedHawks proved my point in the next week by getting shelled by Wisconsin 58-0. The RedHawks put up 157 total yards and 160 yards passing. The only way to do that is by having negative rushing yards for the game, -3.

The RedHawks followed the Badger attack with the best game they’ve had all season against Cincinnati, which would be pretty easy to do actually. Following up a -3 yard rushing game with 220 yards rushing was a big part of it. Still, the RedHawk defense gave up 33 first downs and 545 total yards and blew it with 1:17 remaining in the game. They must have been pretty upset with the loss as they failed to show up the next week against Western Kentucky. In that game Miami (OH) was down 49-7 at half and gave up 464 yards passing. Ugly. And finally, last weekend against Kent State. The RedHawks were listless through 3 ½ quarters before finally waking up in the last six minutes to score two TD’s to make the final score a respectable 20-14.

Reading the above takes care of the explanation of why Miami (OH) is a 16.5-point underdog to Ohio this weekend. But unfortunately for the RedHawks, there’s more. Miami (OH) is 3-22 SU in their last 25 games, and 1-8 SU in their last 9 games against Ohio. Ohio has one of the best defenses in the country, allowing only 18.2 PPG, and scores at a 27.8 PPG clip. The RedHawks give up 35.6 PPG and score only 17.4 PPG – good for 121st in the country.

Ohio could be 5-0 this season, but failed on a Hail Mary attempt versus Minnesota in Week 4. Ohio was up late in that game as well until Minnesota scored the winning touchdown with two minutes and change on the clock. I don’t know if a win for Ohio would have meant they were amazing or Minnesota is terrible, but it definitely means Ohio is better than Miami (OH). Ohio followed that game up with a tough defensive win on the road in their MAC opener at Akron 14-12. They only gave up 88 rushing yards in that game, but their rushing attack was stifled as well. Sophomore running back Papi White was the leading rusher for Ohio with only 29 yards on 5 attempts. He added 56 yards on 4 receptions so his overall line wasn’t drastically bad.

If this game was at Miami (OH) I might have an inclination to back the RedHawks in playing spoiler in this one, but this being a home game for Ohio their defense should be too much to handle. Ohio’s defense is the squad most trustworthy coming into this matchup and could potentially pitch a shutout against the RedHawks. We are going to eat a lot of points here, but as long as the line stays under 17 we should be alright. Take Ohio at -16.5 college football odds as one of this week’s college football picks.

College Football Picks: Ohio -16.5 at Bovada

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