Auburn Tigers College Football Betting Schedule Analysis for 2015-16 Season

Thursday, July 9, 2015 4:15 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 9, 2015 4:15 PM UTC

What follows, is the Auburn Tigers' 2015 betting schedule analysis that is informed by data since 2009. The sole purpose of this is to give you a heads up on their schedule so you can place your picks accordingly.


<p>Because we find it so compelling, we have written a lot about judging college football coaches by the sports-betting metric, margin-of-victory (MOV) against-the-spread (ATS).  The per-game MOV ATS for Gus Malzahn as a head college football coach is 4.44. Putting that into context, that is half-a-point per-game better than Urban Meyer and 1.89 points-per-game better than Nick Saban (at Alabama). What that means is, throughout Coach Malzahn’s 39-game head-coaching career, his teams have averaged beating the spread by 4.44 points PER GAME- a truly remarkable record. Although this is just <a href="" target="_blank" title="Can The Auburn Tigers Shake Up The SEC?">Auburn’s third season with Gus Malzahn as their head coach</a>, we chose to use college football betting data from 2009-2014, partly because Malzahn was their offensive coordinator from 2009-2011, and partly because the Tigers’ betting data in Malzahn’s first two years as a head coach seemed too small a sample size.<br />  </p> <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width:85px;height:34px"> <p align="center"><strong>DATE</strong></p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:34px"> <p align="center"><strong>OPPONENT</strong></p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:34px"> <p align="center"><strong>LOCATION (STADIUM)</strong></p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:34px"> <p align="center"><strong>NOTES (Auburn Since 2009)</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:40px"> <p align="center">9/5/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:40px"> <p align="center">Louisville</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:40px"> <p align="center">Atlanta, GA</p> <p align="center">(Georgia Dome)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:40px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Auburn is just 2-4 ATS in season-openers. Including Bowl games, the Tigers are 4-3 ATS in neutral site games. In those seven games, only once did the line direction (from opening to closing) suggest the correct side.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in"><strong>In the six season-openers, the Over is 4-2, but one of the two Unders was the year Malzahn left to coach Arkansas State (2012).</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:13px"> <p align="center">9/12/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:13px"> <p align="center">Jackson State</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:13px"> <p align="center">Auburn, AL</p> <p align="center">(Jordan-Hare Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:13px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Although Auburn has not played Jackson State, they have played six other FCS teams. The Tigers’ record against those FCS schools is 2-4 ATS, and one of their two ATS victories was when Malzahn was coaching at ASU. <strong>The Tigers are just 2-4 ATS in Home-openers, but the Over is 5-1, exceeding the number by an average of 10.75 points per game. </strong>Keep this in mind when looking at the <a href="" target="_blank" title="See College Football Odds here">college football odds</a>.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:24px"> <p align="center">9/19/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:24px"> <p align="center">LSU</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:24px"> <p align="center">Baton Rouge, LA</p> <p align="center">(Tiger Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:24px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Auburn is 4-2 ATS in both <a href="" target="_blank" title="Hard to Bet Against the SEC">SEC-</a>openers and versus LSU. AU is, however, just 1-2 ATS in Death Valley, making the Home team 5-1 ATS in this series. <strong>The line direction (from opening to closing) indicated the wrong side every time.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The Under is 4-2 in this series, but the Over is 2-1 in Baton Rouge.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:21px"> <p align="center">9/26/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:21px"> <p align="center">Mississippi State</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:21px"> <p align="center">Auburn, AL</p> <p align="center">(Jordan-Hare Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:21px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Auburn is 3-3 ATS versus MSU, but the Bulldogs have won the last three games ATS (including last season’s by 17.5 points). <strong>As an SEC head coach, Malzahn is 0-2 ATS versus MSU, but 11-4 ATS versus all other <a href="" target="_blank" title="SEC Schedule Analysis &amp; Team Win Total Predictions">SEC</a> competition.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Based on closing numbers, the Under is 4-2 in this series. Interestingly enough, the Totals’ line direction (from opening to closing) has indicated the correct outcome every time the game was played in Auburn, while it was wrong every time they played in Starkville.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:21px"> <p align="center">10/3/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:21px"> <p align="center">San Jose State</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:21px"> <p align="center">Auburn, AL</p> <p align="center">(Jordan-Hare Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:21px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The Tigers played SJSU last season (also in Auburn). AU closed as 34-point favorites and still beat the spread by 12 points. <strong>The Tigers have been favorites of 28 points or more, 12 times. Their ATS record in those games is 4-8.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Totals were available for 11 of those games. The Over went 7-4, and that includes the SJSU game when the Over exceeded the 67-point Total by five points.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:19px"> <p align="center">10/15/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:19px"> <p align="center">Kentucky</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:19px"> <p align="center">Lexington, KY</p> <p align="center">(Commonwealth Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:19px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Auburn is 4-5 ATS after a bye week, including 2-3 ATS with Malzahn as head coach.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Auburn has not played Kentucky since 2010, which means Gus Malzahn has not head-coached the Tigers against the Wildcats. That said, Auburn is 0-2 ATS versus UK. <strong>In both games there was reverse line movement (RLM), and both times the RLM side (Kentucky) was correct.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The Totals were split the two times these teams met.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:29px"> <p align="center">10/24/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:29px"> <p align="center">Arkansas</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:29px"> <p align="center">Fayetteville, AR</p> <p align="center">(Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:29px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The Tigers are 3-3 versus the Hawgs. The Home team is 4-2 ATS, and <strong>the side getting the minority betting is 5-1 ATS</strong>.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The Totals have been split 3-3, but the Under has prevailed in three of the last four. The closing line has differed from the opening line in only three of the six games, but in all three of those games the Totals’ line direction suggested the wrong side.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:17px"> <p align="center">10/31/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:17px"> <p align="center">Ole Miss</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:17px"> <p align="center">Auburn, AL</p> <p align="center">(Jordan-Hare Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:17px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in"><strong>The Tigers are 5-1 ATS versus the Rebs, but that one Auburn ATS loss was the one year Malzahn was at Arkansas State.</strong> With Coach Malzahn at AU (in some form), the Tigers have beaten the spread versus Ole Miss by an average of 11.2 points per game.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The Over is also 5-1 in this series. Take this into consideration when placing your <a href="" target="_blank" title="NCAAF Season is right around the corner, and we have free picks &amp; updates here!">college football picks</a>! The Total has gone Over by an average of 15.5 points per game when played in Mississippi, but when played in Auburn, the Total has gone Over by an average of just 2.83 points per game.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:22px"> <p align="center">11/7/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:22px"> <p align="center"><a href="" target="_blank" title="Texas A&amp;M Season Preview &amp; Futures">Texas A&amp;M</a></p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:22px"> <p align="center">College Station, TX</p> <p align="center">(Kyle Field)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:22px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">While Auburn is just 1-2 ATS versus A&amp;M, <strong>the Home team is 3-0 and by no small margin: The Home team has beaten the spread by an average of 23.67 points per game</strong> (based on the closing spread).</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Like the Home team with the spread, the Over is 3-0 and by no small margin: The Total has gone Over by an average of 18.17 points per game (based on the closing Total).</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:18px"> <p align="center">11/14/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:18px"> <p align="center">Georgia</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:18px"> <p align="center">Auburn, AL</p> <p align="center">(Jordan-Hare Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:18px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">While Auburn is just 2-4 ATS versus Georgia, when played in Auburn, the Tigers are 2-1 ATS. <strong>The favorite is 6-0 ATS in this series</strong>.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">For the Totals, the results appear counterintuitive: Each time the Total closed in the 50s, the Under was correct. Each time the Total closed in the 60s, the Over was correct. The only anomaly was last year’s game when the Total closed at 71.5. The Under prevailed by 30.5 points!</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:5px"> <p align="center">11/21/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:5px"> <p align="center">Idaho</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:5px"> <p align="center">Auburn, AL</p> <p align="center">(Jordan-Hare Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:5px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Each season, Auburn schedules at least one non-conference FBS opponent that is at least a 21-point underdog. (In other words, the Tigers schedule at least one “cupcake” FBS opponent.) This season, Idaho fits that bill. Auburn is 4-5 ATS when playing such opponents. The Tigers are 2-4 ATS in games played before the Iron Bowl.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in"><strong>In Auburn’s game before the Iron Bowl, the Under is 2-4.</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:5px"> <p align="center">11/28/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:5px"> <p align="center"><a href="" target="_blank" title="Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Schedule for 2015-16">Alabama</a></p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:5px"> <p align="center">Auburn, AL</p> <p align="center">(Jordan-Hare Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:5px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The Tigers are 3-3 ATS in the Iron Bowl, and 3-2 ATS with Gus Malzahn coaching (in any form). The Home team is 4-2 ATS in this rivalry. <strong>It might be noteworthy that this is the first time (in more than six seasons) that Auburn has not had a bye week before the Iron Bowl.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The Total has gone Over in four out of the six games, but the four Overs were the four most recent matchups. Last season’s Iron Bowl soared Over the Total by 44 to 45.5 points (depending on when the bet was placed).</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p align="center"><strong>©</strong></p>
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