ATS Betting Angle for Defensive Underdogs in College Football

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, September 1, 2015 5:59 PM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2015 5:59 PM GMT

We highlight some very talented defenses that need to be on your radad when betting college football.  These teams are great ATS winners week in and week out.

Many of the 2015 football articles I have written to date have focused on the offense.  More specifically, they have dealt with the importance of successfully running the football as being a direct correlation to pointspread success.  Today, we shift gears and talk about how handicapping the defensive side of the football can provide plenty of profit in the upcoming College Football season.

It is often said that defense wins football games, and maybe even weekly College Football Picks.  The list of teams that I will provide below is a clear example of that in the 2014 college football season.  Along with their SU and ATS success comes a pointspread role in which they have perennially been a solid money maker.  

As I mentioned before in this year’s articles, scoring has notably increased to an average of 28 PPG.  With it has come an attendant increase in yardage.  To accommodate for that change, the parameters for our Defensive Dandies has changed accordingly.   Some 20 years ago, to qualify for this list, a team needed to allow 17 or less PPG and 300 or less YPG.  The new parameters for this year’s article, however, provide profits which are just as healthy. The chart below lists the 17 teams who were Defensive Dandies last year.  Their common characteristics are that they all allowed 22 or less PPG, 350 or less YPG and 140 or less RYPG.  At the conclusion of the chart, I will share the role in which these teams provided 60% profit.  

 

TEAM

2014

SU

2014

ATS

DOG

ATS

DEF

PTS

DEF

YDS

DEF

RY

DEF

RTN

DL

RTN

Alabama

12-2

6-7

0-0

18

328

102

7

3

Arkansas

7-6

9-3

4-2

19

323

114

6

2

Boston College

7-6

7-5

5-2

21

324

94

6

2

Clemson

10-3

5-7

2-1

17

261

104

3

0

Florida

7-5

6-5

3-2

21

328

114

6

2

Louisville

9-4

6-6

2-2

22

310

111

6

3

Memphis

10-3

7-5

2-1

19

350

123

3

2

Michigan

5-7

5-7

2-2

22

311

117

9

3

Michigan St.

11-2

8-4

1-1

21

316

89

1

1

Mississippi

9-4

8-4

3-1

16

329

137

7

3

Missouri

11-3

9-4

5-2

21

346

133

6

1

Ohio St.

14-1

10-5

4-0

22

342

140

7

2

Penn St.

7-6

7-6

3-2

19

279

101

7

2

Stanford

8-5

6-6

1-1

16

282

104

4

0

TCU

12-1

10-2

2-0

19

342

109

6

3

UCF

9-4

7-5

2-1

19

298

104

4

1

Wisconsin

11-3

6-7

1-1

21

294

126

6

1

The records of the 17 teams above are very impressive at 159-65 SU (70.9%) and 122-88 ATS (58.1%).  But, the real money occurs when the linemaker shows a lack of respect in anointing one of these teams in the underdog role.  In that case, you will know what to do this 2015 football season.  

Play any Defensive Dandy as underdog, if they allow 22 or less PPG, 350 or less YPG and 140 or less RYPG - 42-21 ATS (67%)

Along with your underrated and overrated list of teams I have provided for you, your potential Double Rushers and 200 Club Members, you are building quite an arsenal for statistical handicapping that will lead you to pointspread success this CFB season.  Do not be lured into the belief that the fancy passing statistics of this year’s high-scoring teams will lead you to ATS success.  As proven year after year, that comes with the ground game and the defense.

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