Army vs. Navy: Clock Management & Defense Make 'Under' the College Football Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, December 10, 2015 6:35 PM GMT

The Black Knights of the Hudson meet the Middies of Annapolis in the annual season-ending game for the regular season of College Football. Check our free college football inside.

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College Football Pick: Under 50.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

Army vs. Navy 3:00PM ET (Philadelphia, PA)
The history is well-documented with Navy winning this contest 13 consecutive years. Once again, we need look no further than the betting line to see that Navy is the odds on  favorite to capture the most prestigious game on the schedule for each team. 

Army vs. Navy Betting Props

Betting Analysis
Unlike previous seasons, the setup is a bit different for this contest. This year, the Navy football program has become a conference affiliate for the first time in the school’s history. Not only did they join the AAC (American Athletic Conference), but they also played in the league title game 2 weeks ago. That contest saw Houston emerge with a victory, when they held the vaunted Navy ground game to just 147 rushing yards. Nonetheless, Navy enters the contest having clinched the CIC (Commander in Chief) Trophy. Still, much as is the case in previous seasons, Navy will be looking forward to their own Bowl game while this is the Super Bowl for Army. As pointed out above, that has not mattered this millennium.

This is a very young Army team, who enters the contest on a 4-game losing streak with a 2-9 SU record. They average just 22 PPG with neither QB Bradshaw (often injured) nor QB Schurr showing any ability to jumpstart the attack unit. In 2 years at the helm of the Black Knights, HC Monken, has just a 6-17 SU record. This includes a downgraded schedule this season against the likes of Fordham, Bucknell, E. Michigan and Rice. Against the Air Force, Army lost a (20-3) decision, while Navy was defeating the Fly Boys (33-11).

There is far more to like about this Navy team. They are headlined by highly successful HC Niumatalolu and record-breaking, 4 year starter, QB Reynolds. Extra motivation for Reynolds in this one may come from his Heisman snub. What could have been more appealing for CBS viewers than the site of QB Reynolds being flown in by helicopter to the ceremony directly from his performance in the Army/Navy game.

For all the obvious dominance by Navy in this series, note that Army has covered 4 of the last 6 contests, many against bloated spreads such as this. The real value in the contest remains on the UNDER. Nine consecutive Army/Navy games have gone UNDER the posted total with the average O/U line being 52 PPG, the average points scored being 36 and no game totaling more than 48 points. That’s what happens when 2 ground-oriented, clock-eating attacks (which are highly familiar to the opposing defenses) get together in an annual rivalry game. I invite you to put the college football odds in your favor with my college football pick on the UNDER 51.