Arkansas QB Situation Influences NCAAF Odds at Missouri

Ross Benjamin

Monday, November 24, 2014 4:22 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 24, 2014 4:22 PM GMT

It’s a huge week on the college football schedule & one of the biggest games comes in the SEC battle between Arkansas and Missouri on Friday. Join us in reading are early betting preview on this contest.

Friday Afternoon SEC Showdown
The 17th ranked Missouri Tigers will host the Arkansas Razorbacks on Friday afternoon. This game will be televised nationally by CBS, and the opening kickoff is slated for 2:30 PM ET. At the time of this writing there was no line posted on this contest by any of the major sportsbooks, and this is due to the uncertain status of Arkansas starting quarterback Brandon Allen (hip). This will be the first meeting ever between these teams as members of the SEC. They last met in a bowl game in 2008.

 

Most Undervalued Team in the Country
The Arkansas Razorbacks are undoubtedly the best 6-5 team in the nation. If for anything else, they’re definitely undervalued. All you have to look at is their 9-2 ATS record to confirm that fact. Consider the fact that 3 of their 5-losses were 45-38 in overtime versus Texas A&M, a narrow 14-13 defeat to top ranked Alabama, and 17-10 at #4 ranked Mississippi State. When you take that into account, this team is a lot closer to being a 9-2 team, rather than one teetering around the .500 mark. Additionally, the Razorbacks are coming off a pair of shutout wins versus very good teams in Ole Miss (8-3) and LSU (7-4). They combine a strong running attack with a solid defense, equating to a very good underdog value, and not an easy team to beat straight up for that matter.

Understand where the betting odds have been inflated for Week 14 matches.

Huge Game for Missouri
SEC fans scoffed when Missouri joined the SEC in 2012. They’re not criticizing the move anymore. The Tigers are on the verge of reaching the SEC Championship Game in 2 of their first 3-years since joining the most elite college football conference in the country. However, in order to accomplish that feat, they must win their upcoming game versus a red-hot opponent (Arkansas). The Tigers enter this week with a 9-2 overall record, and ironically their two losses have both come at home. A loss by the Tigers will send the Georgia to the conference title game. The Bulldogs own the tiebreaker based on their 34-0 win over Missouri back on October 11th.  Winning the turnover battle will be the key to success for Missouri in Week 14 of the College Football schedule. In their 9-wins they’re a +15 turnover differential, and in their two losses they’re a -6.

 

Final Analysis
My personal NCAAF power rankings have Arkansas being a 5.0 point road favorite in this game. I’m more inclined to believe that Missouri will be installed as a small favorite of 2.5 or less when the line is finally posted. If Brandon Allen plays for Arkansas, my lean will definitely go to the Razorbacks. If he doesn’t, it will be a game I will not place any College Football pick on.

 

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