Arkansas at Alabama: The Tide Sweeps the Hogs Out to Sea

Free Picks College Football

David Schwab

Thursday, October 12, 2017 1:14 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 12, 2017 1:14 PM GMT

The 2-3 Arkansas Razorbacks will get their chance to knock off the top team in the nation this Saturday night when they travel to Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa to tangle with the 6-0 Alabama Crimson Tide as prohibitive underdogs. Game time for this SEC West Division clash is set for 7:15 p.m. (ET) with ESPN carrying the national broadcast.

Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide
Pointspread: Alabama -30
Total Line: 55.5

Arkansas at Alabama Game Overview

The Razorbacks started the season with a 42-point romp over Florida A&M, but it has been pretty much downhill since then with just one more straight-up victory in their last four games. Even worse for bettors, they have failed to cover against the spread in all five contests. Last Saturday, Arkansas lost to South Carolina 48-22 as a three-point road favorite in what may be the low point in this current slide. The total has gone OVER in its last three games.

To have any hope at keeping this game closer than four touchdowns, the Razorbacks will need a huge effort from its ground game. This has been the only bright spot in a rather dismal showing overall with an average of 185.4 rushing yards a game. Chase Hayden has led the way with 274 yards and four touchdowns on 50 carries, but both Devwah Whaley and David Williams have rushed for more than 200 yards as well. Quarterback Austin Allen injured his shoulder in last week’s loss, but he has been upgraded to probable for Saturday night.

Alabama continues to roll towards another SEC title and national title run at 6-0 SU, but it has not been one of the best betting teams in the nation at 3-3 ATS. The Tide failed to cover the betting lines last Saturday as 25.5-point road favorites in a 27-19 victory against Texas A&M after covering double-digit spreads in other SEC victories against Vanderbilt on the road and Ole Miss at home. The total has gone OVER in three of their last four games.

The biggest concern for Alabama come Saturday night is looking past this game as such a heavy favorite at home, but given the past rivalry between these two teams it is highly unlikely that head coach Nick Saban would allow that to happen. The Tide can also run the ball as the seventh-best rushing team in the nation with 301.7 yards per game and their defense is ranked fourth in points allowed (10.3).

Arkansas at Alabama Game Betting Trends

-The Razorbacks have failed to cover ATS in their last six games against a team with a SU winning record and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven games on the road.

-The Crimson Tide are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games, but they have failed to cover in five of their last seven games at home. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of their last 13 October games.

-Head-to-head in this SEC division clash, Alabama has covered the spread in four of the last six meetings while winning all six games SU. The total has gone OVER in four of those six games.

Arkansas at Alabama Free NCAAF Pick

Arkansas is a bad team facing the best team in the country so it all comes down to just how bad it loses this game. While Alabama has had trouble covering huge spreads this season, it has covered against the Razorbacks in four of the last five meetings where the Tide closed as double-digit favorites. The betting public has driven the spread up to 30 points after opening at 28 at SBR Odds, but my top NCAAF pick in this one is Alabama ATS.

Alabama -30 is Your Free College Football Pick
Best Line Currently Found at Heritage Sports (-105)

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