Arkansas +10.5 vs. Mississippi State for College Football Picks

Darin Zank

Tuesday, October 28, 2014 2:09 PM GMT

Arkansas has lost 16 SEC games in a row, going 6-10 ATS in the process. The Razorbacks might have a tough time snapping that streak this week, when they travel to Starkville to take on the top-ranked team in the land, Mississippi State, Saturday night.

 

Hogs-'Dogs Betting Odds
Most college football odds opened Mississippi State at right around -11.5 over Arkansas, but as of Tuesday many had dropped the Bulldogs to -10.5 and -10.

Bettors who believe the Razorbacks might pull the upset here could get a price of +344 on the college football moneyline at Pinnacle.

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Hogs-'Dogs: The Situation
With 16 starters back from a team that went 7-6 last year the Bulldogs hoped to contend in the SEC West this season. And so far that's just what they've done, with their 7-0 start, 4-0 in SEC play.

Mississippi State began this season with a 49-0 win over Southern Miss, then beat UAB 47-34, then beat South Alabama 35-3. The Bulldogs then opened SEC play with a 34-29 victory at LSU, their first win at Death Valley since 1991. They then topped Texas A&M 48-31, then knocked off defending SEC champion Auburn 38-23.

Last week MSU won at Kentucky 45-31, pushing the spread as a 14-point favorite. The Bulldogs outgained the Wildcats 542-504, outrushed them 326-103 and won time-of-possession by a 34/26 margin.

For the season Mississippi State, led by RB Josh Robinson (887 yards) and QB Dak Prescott (664 yards), has outrushed opponents by a 273-118 yards-per-game margin.

With 14 starters returning from a team that went 3-9 last year the Razorbacks just hoped to make progress, possibly make it back to a bowl. At 4-4 Arkansas needs two wins in its last four games to become bowl-eligible.

The Hogs opened this season with a 45-21 loss to Auburn, although that game was tied at 21-21 at halftime. They then beat Nichols State 73-7, won at Texas Tech 49-28 and topped Northern Illinois 52-14. But then the SEC slate re-started, and it's been same-old, same-old for Arkansas since.

The Razorbacks lost 35-28 in overtime at Texas A&M, but covered as nine-point dogs. They then lost at home to Alabama 14-13, outgaining the Tide by over 100 yards but missing an extra-point attempt, covering again as nine-point underdogs. They then got blown out at home by Georgia 45-32 in a game that wasn't as close as that score might indicate.

Last week Arkansas stepped back out of SEC play to beat Alabama-Birmingham 45-17, outgaining the Blazers 484-195, covering the spread as a 24-point favorite.

So while the Hogs are 4-4 SU, they're also 6-2 ATS.

For the season Arkansas, led by the running back combo of Jonathan Williams (830 yards) and Alex Collins (747 yards), has outrushed opponents by a 259-138 yards-per-game margin.

 

Hogs-'Dogs Recent History
Arkansas had beaten Mississippi State 15 of 17 times from 1995-2011, but the Bulldogs have won the last two meetings, including a 24-17 overtime decision in Little Rock last year. The Hogs outrushed the 'Dogs 225-191, but MSU outgained Arkansas 488-339.

That game played UNDER its total of 50.

 

Hogs-'Dogs Betting Trends
These teams are a combined 10-5 on the totals this season.

Mississippi State is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 SEC home games.

Arkansas is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 SEC road games.

 

Hogs-'Dogs Free Pick
Mississippi State is the better team in this match-up, but if Arkansas can move the chains on offense, control some clock and avoid turnovers, it can keep this one close. And we think that's possible. So while the Hogs probably won't get that much-desired SEC victory, we like them plus the points for our college football picks.

Free College Football Pick: Arkansas at +10.5 at 5Dimes