Arizona vs. Oregon Free College Football Picks for Week 4

Off a very successful non-conference slate, the Oregon Ducks are up to third in the latest AP Top 25 as they open Pac-12 play Saturday night at home vs. unranked Arizona. Which way to lean at SBR’s top-rated sportsbooks? 

Arizona Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks

Saturday, September 25, 2021 - 10:30 PM EDT at Autzen Stadium 

No Pac-12 school has reached the College Football Playoff since the University of Washington following the 2016 season. That drought could very well end this year with Oregon up to No. 3 in the latest Associated Press Top 25.

If the Ducks run the table the rest of the way and in the Pac-12 Championship Game, and they likely will be favored at SBR’s top-rated books in all of those, they can punch their second-ever ticket to the playoff. Oregon made the first one following the 2014 season and lost in the title game to Ohio State.  

To win the Pac-12, the Ducks are +120 at (visit our Sportsbook Review). Arizona, meanwhile, is a +25000 long shot as the schools meet Saturday night in the league opener for both.

https://twitter.com/oregonfootball/status/1439762095625543680?s=20

Because they are in separate divisions, these schools don’t play every year. They last did in 2019 when Oregon was ranked sixth and beat Arizona 34-6 also in Eugene. Justin Herbert, now a star quarterback for the Chargers, threw for 333 yards and four scores. The Wildcats were held to only 240 yards.  

Oregon leads the all-time series 27-17 and Top 10-ranked Ducks teams have lost three of the last five times against unranked Wildcats teams, though. The home team is 4-0 ATS on the NCAAF picks in the past four. The total has gone under in seven straight. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0-UntCd9Dc

Arizona Is Totally Broken 

The Arizona program is simply a mess right now in all honesty. The Cats were 0-5 last year and fired Coach Kevin Sumlin, but I’m not sure they are going to win a game this year under Jedd Fisch. He was previously the quarterbacks' coach of the New England Patriots. Fisch and San Jose State coach Brent Brennan were the two finalists for the opening and most Arizona fans wanted Brennan.  

There’s no shame in losing to BYU or San Diego State like Arizona did the first two games but it was embarrassed at home on Saturday by FCS little brother Northern Arizona, 21-19. That’s 15 straight losses, a school record, for the Wildcats.  

"It's embarrassing," said Arizona' Stanley Berryhill III, who had 11 catches for 94 yards. "You don't want to lose to what you'd consider your little brother."  

Stanley Berryhill III #1 of the Arizona Wildcats runs ahead. Ethan Miller/Getty Images/AFP

Arizona, which was a 27-point favorite, outgained the Lumberjacks 363-240 but both teams turned it over three times, and Northern Arizona dominated time of possession. The Cats had two targeting penalties on NAU’s go-ahead drive. It was Arizona’s first loss to NAU since 1932 and their first loss to a team not currently playing at the FBS level since falling to West Texas A&M in 1961. 

Will Plummer started at QB vs. NAU but was pulled after throwing two picks for USF transfer Jordan McCloud, who was 6-for-7 for 66 yards with a TD. I wouldn’t be surprised if McCloud starts this game. Arizona is 1-12 ATS on the NCAAF odds in its past 13 after a loss. 

Ducks Sloppy vs. Overmatched Foe 

I really don’t know what Oregon (3-0) was doing playing tiny Stony Brook this past Saturday with the Ducks as 42-point favorites – they didn’t cover in a 48-7 victory. Essentially, it was a scrimmage and Stony Brook probably made its entire athletic budget just to travel to Eugene for a big check. It was only 10-7 after one quarter. It was Oregon’s 14th straight home victory, the fifth-longest active streak in the country.  

Superstar pass-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux missed his second straight game due to injury. Linebackers Justin Flowe and Dru Mathis (both out indefinitely) also sat. Five Oregon players made their first defensive start of the season. 

Quarterback Anthony Brown didn’t play in the second half after taking sacks on the last two plays of the first half but is expected to be fine. Brown was 14-of-18 for 159 yards with touchdowns passing and rushing in the first half. True freshman Ty Thompson replaced him even though Thompson was listed No. 3 on the depth chart behind Brown and Robby Ashford. 

https://twitter.com/GoDucks/status/1440099706038747137?s=20

"He took a pretty good shot there at the end of the half," Coach Mario Cristobal said of Brown. "We were just making sure he was OK. We expect him to be OK and he looks good, so we expect him to be healthy for the week." 

Despite playing without Thibodeaux and a few other key defenders, Oregon forced a season-high four turnovers and held an opponent to single-digit points for the first time facing Arizona last in 2019. My guess is Thibodeaux is held out again, though, as Oregon doesn’t need him to beat the Wildcats. 

Oregon jumped Oklahoma on Sunday to rise to No. 3 in the AP poll after the Sooners struggled at home in a win over Nebraska on Saturday.  

The Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their past five as favorites and I think Arizona gets a late backdoor cover here. 

NCAAF Pick:  (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.