Appalachian State-Arkansas State: Expect Points, Points & More Points

Sunday, October 7, 2018 10:36 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 7, 2018 10:36 PM UTC

We have Tuesday college football this week, and it’s Appalachian State visiting Arkansas State from the Sun Belt Conference and on ESPN2.

Matthew's 2018 NCAAF ATS Record: 7-6

Appalachian State (3-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) at Arkansas State (3-2, 1-3 ATS)Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)Free NCAAF Pick: OverBest Line Offered: JustBet

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The smaller FBS schools will basically do whatever is necessary to get their program some national exposure, and that’s why Appalachian State is visiting Arkansas State in Sun Belt action on Tuesday: ESPN2 will telecast the game.

It’s possible this is a preview of the Sun Belt Conference title game. I believe Appalachian State is the best team in the conference, but Troy is also pretty solid and in the same East Division. They play in Boone, N.C., to close the regular season. App State has one of the rising stars in the coaching profession in Scott Satterfield. He’s 40-15 at the school and has led the fairly new FBS program to three straight bowl victories. Don’t be surprised if some Power 5 school comes calling for Satterfield. How about the University of North Carolina? Not sure Larry Fedora survives there.

Arkansas State is in the much weaker West Division. where every team already has at least one conference defeat. The Red Wolves also have a highly-regarded coach in Blake Anderson and they have played in a bowl each of the past seven years.

It’s just the third all-time meeting between these programs and they have split. They last played in 2015, a 40-27 Arkansas State road victory. The last time Appalachian State played on a Tuesday was on Oct. 27, 1942, when it lost 7-0 to something called Catawba.

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Two High-Powered Offenses

Arkansas State has one of the best quarterbacks you may have never heard of in Justice Hansen – NFL scouts know about the senior from Oklahoma. Last year, he threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 37 touchdowns while rushing for 422 yards and seven more scores in being named Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year and setting several school and conference records. This season, Hansen’s completion percentage is down (57.9) and he has thrown for 2,719 yards and 19 scores with 131 yards rushing and a TD.

A-State comes off a Sept. 29 38-21 loss at Georgia Southern as the Eagles scored the winning touchdown, a 47-yard reverse, with 19 seconds left. How does one allow a 47-yard TD run that late in the game? Hansen was sacked for the sixth time of the game when attempting a Hail Mary from around midfield to end it. He had 376 yards through the air and a TD while also rushing for a score. Hansen’s next TD pass will set the career school record (tied at 67 with Ryan Aplin). The Red Wolves had nearly 500 yards offense but allowed one-dimensional Georgia Southern to run for 348.

Appalachian State, which probably should have won at Penn State, in Week 1, brings a three-game winning streak into this one, winning those by a combined score of 169-23 – the Mountaineers had one game canceled by Hurricane Florence. They cruised by South Alabama 52-7 on Sept. 29. App State has scored at least 45 points in three straight games for the first time in school history and allowed single-digit points in three straight games for the first time since 1998.

Dual-threat QB Zac Thomas has thrown for 896 yards and three scores while rushing for 157 yards and five more TDs. Tailback Jalin Moore is averaging 6.6 yards per carry. App State leads the Sun Belt and is third nationally in scoring offense (51.8 ppg) and also leads the conference in scoring defense (17.0 ppg, 18th nationally).

  • Mountaineers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in Mountaineers last 4 games overall.
  • Over is 9-4 in Red Wolves’ last 13 games in October.

A-State has failed to cover its past five at home so we will roll with Appalachian State and the over for a Tuesday NCAAF pick.

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