Analyzing Alabama vs. Clemson As Odds Hit The NCAAF Betting Market

Ross Benjamin

Friday, January 1, 2016 7:11 PM GMT

Friday, Jan. 1, 2016 7:11 PM GMT

Our college football handicapping professional provides us with an early outlook on the National Championship Game between Alabama and Clemson.

National Championship Early Wagering Preview
The college football playoff semifinals are now behind us, and it’s time to focus on the upcoming national title game. Unless you’re a fan of, or had a lot of money on Clemson or Alabama, there’s a good chance the entertainment value of the two semifinal contests was a huge disappointment. After all, the Crimson Tide and Tigers outscored their opponents by a cumulative score of 75-17.

 

The Point Spread
Current college football odds at The Greek, indicate that Alabama opened as a 7.0 point favorite, and that line has remained unchanged at the time of this writing (1/1/2016).

Alabama has gone a terrific 5-1 SU&ATS in their six games this season as a favorite of 12.0 or less. Alabama held Michigan State to a paltry 239 yards of total offense in their semifinal win. The Crimson Tide defense has now allowed 239 yards or less in each of their previous four games. Saban’s Alabama teams are 26-12 ATS following three straight games in which they allowed 250 yards or less, and had a massive +21.2 point per game differential in those outings.

On the other hand, Clemson was a favorite in each of their first thirteen games this season, and they’ve now been tabbed as an underdog for their second straight time. Clemson will be facing a staunch Alabama defense that’s allowing just 71 yards rushing per game. Under the guidance of head coach Dabo Swinney, Clemson has gone 15-5 ATS versus opponents that allow 120 or less rushing yards per game, and they possess a substantial +12.0 point per game differential in those contests.

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The Total
Depending on what major sportsbook you’re looking at, the total in this contest is currently between 52.5 and 53.5.

Despite Alabama’s terrific defensive numbers this season, this will be the eighth time in fourteen games they’ll have seen a total of 50.0 or more. They went 4-3 under the total on the first seven occasions. Alabama has gone 15-6 over the total when playing on a neutral field with Nick Saban as their head coach, and 14-3 if they were a favorite in those games.

Clemson has seen a total of 50.0 or more in all but three games this season. They’ve gone 6-2 over the total in their last eight games when there’s a total of 50.0 or more.

When you’re considering your college football picks on this contest, there’s a pertinent betting system that’s applicable to this total. Any neutral field team (Clemson) with a total of 49.5 to 56.0, and they outrush their opponents by an average of 100 yards or more per game, resulted in those contests going 45-17 (77.6%) under the total during the past ten seasons. Since Clemson is outrushing their opponents by 103 yards per game this season, they fit within all the parameters of this betting angle. However, I wouldn’t advise jumping on a total play this early in the process.

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