Alabama vs. Arkansas Picks, Predictions College Football Week 5: Line Moves in Favor of the Tide

Henry John

Last Updated: October 1, 2022 2:40 AM EDT • 3 min 12 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Jahmyr Gibbs of the Alabama Crimson Tide rushes away from Quae Drake of the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks during the first quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium on September 17, 2022. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images via AFP.

The No. 2 Alabama Crimson are 4-0 on the season but were challenged in their only test of the season thus far heading into Saturday's matchup with the No. 20 Arkansas Razorbacks. Check out our top Alabama-Arkansas picks below.

The Crimson Tide took care of pushover opponent Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe, and Vanderbilt by a combined score of 173-10 and covered the spread each time, but they narrowly avoided an upset in a 20-19 win over Texas in Week 2. Alabama will look to continue its domination of Arkansas, though the Razorbacks looked good until a 23-21 loss to Texas A&M on a neutral field last week.

Check out all of our top college football Week 5 picks here.

Here are our picks for the Week 5 matchup between Alabama and Arkansas (odds via PointsBet and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Alabama vs. Arkansas Game Info

Date: Saturday, Oct. 1, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Weather: 83℉, 0% chance of precipitation, 9-11 mph winds NE

Alabama vs. Arkansas Odds

Alabama vs. Arkansas Odds Analysis

Alabama has grown from a -15 favorite to -17.5 as of Saturday morning despite 53% of the cash on 60% of the tickets backing underdog Arkansas.

The Over/Under has also seen reverse line movement. The line has dropped from 62.5 to 61 despite over 80% of the cash and tickets being placed on the Over.

Alabama vs. Arkansas Picks

Alabama vs. Arkansas ATS Pick

Alabama -17.5 (-107) ★★

As far as one can tell, there are really only two major arguments against laying the points with Alabama in this spot. First is the fact that the best of the number is long gone following the 3-point line move. This is a fair argument, but it seems the spread is more likely to continue getting bigger than to move back in Arkansas’ favor.

The other element that is clearly on the minds of many public bettors is how the Crimson Tide struggled in their first road game of the season against Texas. The issue with this line of thinking is that this spot is drastically different.

The Longhorns were beyond jacked up to host the No. 1 team in the land in a prove-it game. On the flip side, Arkansas just played arguably the third-best team in the SEC just last weekend. The dramatic and gut-wrenching nature in which the Razorbacks lost that game could wind up negatively impacting how they prepare for Saturday’s contest.

From a personnel standpoint, it’s fair to question how Arkansas will be able to move the ball on the Alabama defense. With star running back Raheim Sanders and dual-threat quarterback K.J. Jefferson, the Hogs are clearly a run-first offense. Moving the chains and putting up points in this nature won’t be easy against the stacked Alabama defensive front.

On the season, the Tide have allowed just 62.5 rushing yards per game, the second-fewest in the country. ‘Bama held Texas’ star back, Bijan Robinson, to just 2.7 yards per carry. If the Razorbacks are unwilling and/or unable to throw the ball with success, it’s tough to envision them keeping pace for four quarters.

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Alabama vs. Arkansas O/U Pick

Over 60 (-110) ★★★

Bryce Young set an Alabama school record for single-game passing yardage in last year’s matchup against Arkansas. Of course, three of the top receivers as well as the top tight end from last year’s Crimson Tide team are now gone. Young may not have a true go-to target just yet, but the young receiving corps continues to flash great potential.

Each of Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja’Corey Brooks, and Traeshon Holden have all shown glimpses of what the 2022 Alabama passing attack could eventually morph into. Alabama head coach Nick Saban and his coaching staff will undoubtedly have a strong game plan to attack the Arkansas defense.

Struggles from the Texas game will be corrected, and the Razorbacks are also a familiar and annual opponent.

Alabama vs. Arkansas Prop Pick

Arkansas team total between 21-30 (+180) ★★★

With the expectation that Alabama will be able to put up some points, the onus will be on Jefferson and the Arkansas offense to try and keep pace. The Hogs are talented enough to do so to an extent, but surpassing 30 points seems unattainable.

Going back to last year’s meeting between these teams, Arkansas actually didn’t go over the 30-point mark until the final two minutes of the game. A late touchdown rounded out the scoring in the 42-35 decision.

Jefferson threw for over 300 yards in that game as well, but the Razorbacks lost three of their top four receivers from a year ago. Coming into Week 5, Arkansas has averaged 185.3 passing yards per game which ranks just 104th in the country. In essence, it almost seems more likely that the Hogs will fall short of this 21-30-point band than surpass it.

Where to Bet on Alabama vs. Arkansas Picks

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Alabama-Arkansas picks made 9/28/2022 at 3:15 p.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.