Air Force the College Football Pick, as Warriors Won't Fight Back

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, October 27, 2015 6:53 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2015 6:53 PM UTC

The Falcons will face the Warriors, and they're the perfect example for the Super Surger vs. Towel Tosser concepts. Join in to find out the free pick and review the analysis. 

Air Force vs Hawaii
Air Force visits Hawaii for this mid-season Mountain West contest. It is a great example of a Super Surger vs. Towel Tosser which perfectly represents this week’s article of the same name. These teams have not met since 2012, when Air Force recorded a 21-7 victory. The Rainbow Warriors have not seen the triple-option since 2013. And, they won’t like what they will see today. This fundamental advantage for Air Force, along with our concept of Super-Surger vs.Towel-Tosser, at a great value price makes this an outstanding example of the theory.

Let’s turn to the fundamentals first, as they always serve for the basis of the handicap. Hawaii has been beaten from pillar to post at the point of attack. They have a bottom 10% rushing defense which allows 229 RYPG. They have allowed 185 RY to every run defense among their lined opponents. No way, they stop the Air Force triple-option, which is averaging 333/5.4 overland and comes off a performance in which they ran for 458 yards against a similar Fresno St. defensive front in a (42-14) victory against Fresno. It would be a total surprise from a fundamental perspective, if Air Force does not double rush a Hawaii ground game that averages just 97/3.1. And, don’t worry about Hawaii making up the difference in the airways! Supposed savior, USC transfer QB Wittek is performing far below expectations with his 3 INTs last week vs. Nevada.  An injured knee does not help his cause! Hawaii averages only 17 PPG on 294/4.6 YP play. 

Working hand in glove with these fundamentals is today’s situation. At 4-3 SU for the season and 3-1 SU in conference play, the Falcons are in the thick of it for conference superiority (Boise has already lost) and another post-season invite. This week’s victory against Hawaii and next week vs. Army are “must wins,” as they still must face top of the conference teams, Utah St. and Boise St. Expect full focus from the Falcons, who enter with solid momentum off the Fresno win. For the Rainbow Warriors, it is a far different story! The 4-year experiment that was HC Chow is now drawing to an end, as he approaches “lame duck” status. At 2-6 SU, winless in the league and on a 5-game losing streak, Hawaii enters at 2-6 SU. Any hope of a Bowl game quickly dissolves once they fall behind the Air Force ground game. Last week, Hawaii suffered the FCB (final crushing blow). A 17-0 lead at Nevada evaporated into a 30-20 loss, as they returned to the Islands with their tail between their legs.   

This is a great example of a Super-Surger vs. a Towel-Tosser! With fundamentals confirming the selection, and a line that is the “same as it would have been opening week, despite a (-62) net AFP differential for Hawaii,” we comfortably step in with our college football pick on Air Force (-7) as our Super Surger vs. Towel Tosser of the week. Put the college football odds in your favor in joining me for this late night winner.

Free College Football Pick: Air Force -7 at at Bookmaker

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