Friday Night Lights: UNLV Has No Quarterback or Chance vs. Air Force

Wednesday, October 17, 2018 11:24 AM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 17, 2018 11:24 AM UTC

Our Mountain West Conference expert, Mark Lathrop, breaks down the two Friday night games with an eye on a parlay payout as he makes his Friday Night Lights picks.

2018 NCAAF Record: 19-12, +11.61u
*Note: Record includes official Twitter selections (@mlathrop3)

Colorado State Rams (3-4 SU) @ Boise State Broncos (4-2 SU)Friday, 9 PM EST (ESPN2)Free NCAAF Pick: UnderBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Colorado State Rams beat New Mexico at home last week to break an eight-game losing streak. Here they will try to beat the Boise State Broncos for the first time ever as they travel to Boise as 23.5-point underdogs. They’ve had their close calls too, with last year being a prime example. After being up 35-17 at halftime last November, the Rams lost in overtime in a thrilling 59-52 Broncos win with Boise State being a 6.5-point favorite.

Even though the Rams are giving up 35.1 points per game the market seems to be discounting their defense, as Colorado State has cashed Unders at a nifty 5-2 clip. Just kidding! In Colorado State’s losses they have given up an average of 42.7 points per game. It just so happens that the Rams couldn’t score in those games either. Their offense will face a Boise State team allowing a paltry 13 points per game at home, laden with seniors, and who can’t afford another loss in conference play. I’ll back the Under here and look to cash another Under with Boise State after last week’s profitable play with Boise State at Nevada.

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Hostile environment, big plays and a big win for Boise State Football.

Check out the highlights from the Broncos’ 31-27 win over the Wolf Pack Saturday night!#BleedBlue pic.twitter.com/8kGUvI0KWB

— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) October 16, 2018
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Air Force Falcons (2-4 SU) @ UNLV Rebels (2-4 SU)Friday, 10 PM EST (CBS Sports Network)Free NCAAF Pick: UnderBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The big news for this game is that UNLV will be missing the services of Armani Rogers, who will miss 6-8 weeks with a broken foot. The offense is one dimensional without him, and running back Lexington Thomas is not going to be able to pick up the load. After all, Thomas has 552 rushing yards over 6 games and Rogers had 488 through 6 games. Rogers’ replacement is Max Gilliam, who is completing passes at 47.2% and averaging just 124.3 yards per game.

This game seems to come down to Air Force being able to execute on offense, as their defense looks to have a fairly easy assignment with UNLV being shorthanded. The Falcons are 0-3 in conference play, but have played some stiff competition. They seem to have the recipe to run on UNLV at least and put up 401 yards rushing against the Rebels last year. UNLV is giving up an average of 208.8 yards on the ground this year, so it looks like we have a strength versus weakness matchup going. With two teams going at it on the ground the Under has value, but with UNLV being hapless I will buy this line down to -11 and side with the fly boys as one of my Friday night picks.

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