Air Force Adds Some Chalk For Arizona Bowl Against South Alabama

Jason Lake

Tuesday, December 27, 2016 5:25 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2016 5:25 PM UTC

The Air Force Falcons are still the popular college football pick for Friday’s Arizona Bowl, but on the moneyline, it’s the South Alabama Jaguars in a landslide.

Record: 12-14-2 ATS, 1-1 Totals

Now that Kris Kringle has left the building, let’s take a look at the 2016 FBS bowl season and see how things are progressing. Hmmm... if I’ve done my math right, underdogs are 5-9 SU and 9-5 ATS at press time, with the UNDER at 9-5. It’s a wonderful life for sharp bettors. This is exactly how things are supposed to go down – in December, at least.

And we’ve still got a few December games on our NCAAF odds board. A couple weeks back, we previewed Friday’s Arizona Bowl matchup (5:30 p.m. ET, ASN) between the Air Force Falcons and the South Alabama Jaguars; the Falcons were 13.5-point favorites at the time, now they’re –14, with two-thirds of bettors still on board. But over on the moneyline, the Jaguars remain the preferred college football pick at +415 after dipping briefly to +400. That pick is our pick, too.


Air Mail

The logic behind the pick is even better than it was two weeks ago – if only slightly. ESPN’s Football Power Index now has Air Force projected to win 77.1 percent of the time, down from 77.5 percent when we made our recommendation. Plug that percentage into our SBR Betting Odds Converter, and you get –337, down from –345. We’ll take every precious cent, thank you kindly.

There aren’t too many complicating factors interfering with our betting value. This game is being held at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, where Friday’s forecast calls for mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the high 60s. South Alabama will be trying to win their first bowl game; the Falcons might be somewhat disinterested in the Arizona Bowl, which isn’t even on national television, and they’re 2-7 ATS this year when favored by seven points or more. The Jags are 3-1 ATS when getting at least seven points. Let’s add them ATS alongside our moneyline pick now that they’ve reached the magic +14, and may the prolate spheroid be with you in 2017 and beyond.

Free NCAAF Pick: USA +14 (–105)Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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