Add 'Under' to Iowa-Wisconsin College Football Picks: Expect Defense to Dominate

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 11:38 AM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 30, 2015 11:38 AM UTC

Our college football handicapping professional provides us with an early betting preview on Saturday’s game between Iowa and #19 Wisconsin. Go inside to find who he likes in this contest and why.

Big Ten Opener for Hawkeyes and Badgers
The #19 ranked Wisconsin Badgers (3-1) will host Iowa (4-0) in what will be the Big Ten opener for both teams. The opening kickoff at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin is slated for Noon ET. At the time of this writing, college football odds indicate that Wisconsin is anywhere from a 6.0 to 7.0 point favorite. The posted total in this game is 48.0 everywhere but ‘The Greek” who has it at 47.0. Wisconsin has defeated Iowa three consecutive times, and that includes a narrow 26-24 win on the road last season.

Great Start for Iowa
Granted the level of competition (Illinois State, Iowa State, Pittsburgh, & North Texas) hasn’t been awe inspiring thus far, but Iowa has started 2015 with four consecutive wins. This is the first time since 2009 that the Hawkeyes have been able to get off to a 4-0 start. As a matter of fact, it’s just the eighth time this has transpired since 1980. You may be surprised to know, Iowa has gone 7-3 straight up, and 8-2 ATS on the road since 2013.


Dominance at Camp Randall
Since the beginning of the 2004 season, Wisconsin has gone a superb 70-7 (.901) at home. It must be noted, two of those seven losses came at the hands of Iowa. Wisconsin has gone an extremely profitable 13-5 during that time span as a conference home favorite of 10.0 or less.


Offense sells Tickets and Defense wins Games
Both of these teams have racked up some impressive offensive numbers this year. Wisconsin has averaged 32.7 points per game, while Iowa is an even better 37.7 per contest. The Badgers are averaging 408 yards of total offense per game, and the Hawkeyes 439 per contest.

The aspect of each team’s game that’s gone virtually unnoticed is their play defensively. Wisconsin has allowed just 9.5 points and 292 yards per game thus far. They gave up 35 points and 502 yards to Alabama in their season opener, and since that time their stop unit has been impenetrable. They’ve outscored their last three opponents (Miami-Ohio, Troy, & Hawaii) by a combined margin of 114-3, and allowed an average of only 222.3 yards per game.

Iowa’s defensive numbers aren’t as gaudy, but their very good nonetheless. They’ve allowed just 17.7 points and 295 yards per game.


Final Analysis
This will be a stern test for both of these offenses, and I believe each stop unit will dominate the contest. I’m calling for a low scoring game, and one of my college football picks will reflect that prediction.

Free College Football Pick: Play on Iowa and Wisconsin Under 48.0 (-105) at Heritage.

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