Add Purdue Over Northwestern to Your College Football Picks

Thursday, November 20, 2014 8:47 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 20, 2014 8:47 PM UTC

I long ago learned in this industry when it looks this easy you must look the other way. Don't miss out as we bring you our free college football picks for Northwestern vs. Purdue.

Northwestern vs. Purdue 
Each week in the Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter, I seek a contest in which one team has caught the public’s eye, while another team has fallen out of favor with college football odds linemakers and bettors. Last week in this very space, we used the same thinking in isolating Oregon St. as our PERCEPTION/REALITY winner in their home dog upset of Arizona St. That victory keyed a 6-0 ATS weekend on our 6 Best Bets in the Pointspread Prognosis.

Last week’s play against team was Arizona St. You recall that one of the main reasons for the play against was the fact that the Sun Devils had just upset Notre Dame in the previous week. At that time, I mentioned that Arizona St. fell under the post-Notre Dame letdown in which we look to fade favorites who had just defeated the Fighting Irish in the previous week. That is exactly what Northwestern did, as they rallied from a 40-29 deficit to defeat the Fighting Irish (43-40). To make that happen, the Wildcats had to recover a late game fumble that resulted in a game tying field goal and eventual OT victory.  Now, this Jekyll and Hyde, Wildcat team, takes to the road to meet an opponent who will surely not inspire them. Remember, this a Northwestern team that holds the scalps of Penn St. and Wisconsin in early season victories. But, it is also a team who was bad enough to go 0-4 SU ATS against middle-range Big 10 opposition. Sure, at 4-6 SU, there is motivation for a 6-6 SU season and Bowl bid.  But will they be able to avoid the inevitable letdown? 

This is a Purdue team who is going nowhere with victories against only W. Michigan, Southern Illinois and Illinois on their resume. They have played valiantly in the most recent 4 weeks, but have still allowed 34 or more PPG in losing to Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Michigan St.  LHG motivation is what drives this team, who is on a run of 4-19 SU in their previous 23 Big 10 games. A true PERCEPTION/REALITY play as Purdue pulls the mini-upset! 

Since I originally wrote this selection, a syndicate of smart money has pushed this line to a pick ‘em situation or even showing Purdue to be the favorite. This is not public money, but rather an informed source making this a positive indicator on the selection. Do not be surprised if public money later in the week pushes this line back to its original level.  For your college football picks this week all you need to know from this is that Purdue is the winning SIDE.

College Football Picks: Purdue at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":294440, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here