Add 'Over' to Your NCAAF Picks for Baylor vs. Texas Tech

Willie Bee

Wednesday, November 26, 2014 1:26 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2014 1:26 PM GMT

Art Briles and the Baylor Bears need a big win Saturday against Texas Tech to stay in the playoff picture, and you're a click away from a free pick for this Big 12 football odds battle.

The bummer of the deal is the Baylor Bears don't get to play the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Waco this year. That is balanced, though, by the fact they don't have to travel to god-forsaken Lubbock, Texas to get the game in.

A decision was made a few years back to host this rivalry at a neutral site, and for the fourth consecutive year, Cowboys Stadium in the D-FW metroplex is the site. Depending where you live, the game will be carried by either ABC or ESPN2 with the broadcast beginning at 3:30 PM (ET).

Oddsmakers sent this one out with Baylor laying 23½ before bettors boosted that spread to -25. SBR's live college football odds sent this one out with 79 for the total.

Baylor has a very good chance to even up with Texas Tech as the football teams come together for the 73rd time. The Red Raiders have the slimmest of series leads with a 36-35-1 record vs. the Bears, winning 15 straight starting in 1996 when the Big 12 was born.

It's the Bears, however, who have won the last three, each meeting at Jerry Jones' playground. All three were high-scoring affairs to easily send 'over' bettors back to the pay window, Baylor averaging more than 60 points per game while the Red Raiders were putting up better than 40.

 

Bears Defense Unsung Hero In 9-1 Standing
Offense is once again Baylor's strength. Bryce Petty and his pals have been held under 30 points just twice in amassing the top-scoring team in the land (50.0 ppg), and the Bears have tallied 45 or more in the other eight games while also leading all Division 1 teams in total yardage (584.5).

There's no reason to think they won't continue their 2014 assault and have another big day against a Texas Tech defense that has allowed fewer yards than only three other teams and given up more points than all but two squads.

With all the flash that Baylor's offense brings to the table, the defense gets overlooked sometimes. The stop unit sit 18th in the country in the total yards allowed and is in the top quarter surrendering only 21.7 PPG. If there's a shortcoming, it's forcing turnovers with only 19 on the season, but with the offense only giving it away 10 times, the Bears are still a top 20 crew in turnover margin.

 

Disappointing Season Comes To End For Tech
Kliff Kingsbury is going to be happy to see the 2014 campaign come to a close for the Red Raiders. Even when they got off to a 2-0 start, there were signs this was going to be a long season when the Techsters managed to beat Central Arkansas and UTEP by a combined 11 points despite being favored by at least three touchdowns in both games.

Texas Tech did just managed to stop a 3-game skid with last week's 34-31 triumph at Iowa State in a contest that was a pick 'em on the college football odds. Freshman QB Patrick Mahomes threw for more than 300 yards and four touchdowns for the second consecutive game, and gives Kingsbury someone to build his offense around next season. A run defense that allowed more than 240 yards rushing for a 4th-straight game give Kingsbury and his staff a lot of rebuilding to work on as well.

There should be plenty of sunshine with the thermometer climbing into the mid-to-upper 70s if what the weatherman is telling us now holds true. The only thing in the forecast that bears watching is the wind, with a SW blow around 18-22 mph in the present mix.

The College Football Playoff committee will no doubt look at how Baylor and TCU performed against Texas Tech -- it will at least come up in the conversation -- if it has to  break a tie between the Bears and Horned Frogs. Granted, Baylor did beat TCU, which probably should be the tiebreaker, but I've got to think the Bears will want to make sure the Horned Frogs lose some style points for the 82 they put on the Red Raiders. That's why I'm riding the 'over' all day long for my free college football pick.

College Football Pick: Baylor-Texas Tech Over 79 at 5Dimes
Season: 57-37-1 (+16.30)

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