Add Home Dog FIU + the Points vs. Louisville for NCAAF Picks

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, September 16, 2014 3:21 PM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 16, 2014 3:21 PM GMT

The FIU Golden Panthers were embarrassed last year by the Louisville Cardinals, which should have the home underdogs focused on playing 60 minutes of football Saturday.

Disappointing Result
Louisville turned the ball over four times that led to 13 Virginia Cavaliers’ points last Saturday, as it dropped a 23-21 decision as four-point road favorites, while going UNDER the betting total for the second time in three contests this year.

Cardinals quarterback Will Gardner was benched for a few series last time out, which is important to consider when making your Week 4 college football predictions, but he did return to action and ultimately completed 14-of-34 passes for 164 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

College football handicappers will find that the program is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a SU loss.

 

Unable to Hold On
FIU jumped out to a 16-0 lead heading into the second quarter last week against the Pittsburgh Panthers, but it ended up dropping a 42-25 decision as 24.5-point home underdogs last Saturday, while going OVER the betting total for the first time in 2014.

The Panthers were pleased overall with freshman signal-caller Alex McGough, who completed half of his 30 pass attempts for a career-high 224 yards and two touchdowns.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the squad is 0-4 SU and 3-1 ATS as underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points per college football odds, with the UNDER cashing three times in that situation.

 

Last Year’s Meeting
The Cardinals breezed to a 72-0 win over the Golden Panthers as 41-point home favorites last year, as they won the statistical battle by an incredible 464-27 margin, but it’s important to point out that Charlie Strong was the head coach at the time.

Bobby Petrino has returned to the sideline and he’s dropped back-to-back games just once in his career during his time on campus, but he’s also just 12-11 ATS when winning as a road favorite during his entire collegiate career.

 

Staying at Home
The Golden Panthers will be playing their fourth consecutive home game to start the season, which is certainly an advantage in terms of dealing with the South Florida weather, as forecasts suggest an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

FIU has covered the number in four of its last five games at FIU Stadium, while Louisville is a disappointing 4-5 ATS as road favorites the last two-plus seasons.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Golden Panthers as one of their Week 4 college football picks, as the Cardinals are a dismal 4-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record since 2012.

College Football Pick:  FIU Golden Panthers +27 at 5Dimes

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