Add Dog to NCAAF Picks in Air Force vs. San Diego State

Darin Zank

Monday, November 17, 2014 4:13 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 17, 2014 4:13 PM GMT

This NCAAF handicapper points out that the Air Force is probably tired of coming up short in its series with San Diego State, losing the last 4 meetings SU & the last 5 ATS.

Falcons-Aztecs Betting Odds
San Diego State opened as a field-goal favorite over Air Force across the College Football betting odds market, and that figure had held steady in the early betting.

Those who believe the Falcons won't even need the spread could get a price of +130 on the college football betting moneyline at Sport Bet.

 

Falcons-Aztecs: The Situation
At 5-5 overall, 3-3 in Mountain West play, San Diego State still needs one more victory to become bowl eligible for the fifth straight season, and yet it's tied for first place in the West Division.

The Aztecs opened this season 2-3, with losses at North Carolina and at Oregon State. The schedule then lightened up a bit and SD State won three of four. But last week the Aztecs blew a big early lead and lost at Boise State 38-29.

The Aztecs led the Broncos 20-0 late into the second quarter, but allowed BSU to go on a 31-3 run. SD State scored with more than eight minutes to go to get within 31-29, but missed on a two-point conversion attempt. Boise State then iced the victory with a touchdown with two minutes to go, but the Aztecs hung on for the cover as 14-point dogs. San Diego State got outgained by the Broncos 399-357 and outrushed 212-169.

As mentioned above the Aztecs are tied with Nevada and Fresno State atop the West Division; however, they've lost to both the Pack and the Bulldogs. So a tie won't do them any good.

On the other side of this match-up is Air Force, which, after falling to 2-10 last year, has bounced back nicely, and will return to a bowl.

The Falcons opened this season by splitting their first two games, then won three in a row, with an upset of Boise State and a 30-21 victory over Navy. Air Force then lost at Utah State, but has won its last four games, including a 23-6 decision over Army and, last week, a 45-38 overtime victory over Nevada.

Last week's game was tied at 7-7, 14-14, 21-21, 28-28 and, finally, 38-38 on a Wolf Pack field goal with 12 seconds to go in regulation. The Falcons then won it on a Shayne Davern TD run in the first OT.

Air Force got outgained by Nevada 498-471 but won the ground game 342-223.

So in four games this season vs. common opponents (Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico and Boise State) the Falcons are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, while the Aztecs are 2-2 both SU and ATS.

Stay one step ahead of the bookies with our free report of 'Inflated Betting Odds for Week 13" 

Falcons-Aztecs Recent History
San Diego State has beaten Air Force each of the last four seasons, by an average score of 31-20.

Last year Air Force led 20-6 through three quarters up in Colorado Springs, but the Aztecs rallied with three fourth-quarter touchdowns, the last with a minute and a half to go, to steal a 27-20 victory. San Diego State outgained the Falcons 463-319 and outrushed them 214-169.

That game played UNDER its total of 53. In fact, five of the last six meetings in this series have played UNDER.

 

Falcons-Aztecs Betting Trends
Before placing your College Football pick, understand that the Air Force is 4-6 on the totals this season, even as its games have averaged 57 points. Falcons games have routinely been pegged with some rather large totals.

San Diego State is a lopsided 1-9 on the totals, as Aztecs games have averaged just 46 points.

 

Falcons-Aztecs Free Pick
San Diego State owns the recent rivalry, with four wins in a row, but it's time for Air Force to put an end to that streak. The Falcons look to us to be the better team, and more likely to win the ground battle. And they won't even need the three points; we like Air Force to win this game outright.

Free College Football Pick: Air Force Falcons on the moneyline at 5Dimes

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