Add Clemson -3 vs. Georgia Tech to Week 12 NCAAF Picks

Darin Zank

Wednesday, November 12, 2014 7:43 PM GMT

This sports handicapper points out that the Clemson Tigers are 3-1 both SU and ATS in their last four games against Georgia Tech. Read this article before placing your Week 12 pick.

Tigers-Jackets Betting Odds
Most books we checked with opened their College Football Betting Odds on this game with Clemson favored by a point or two, with a total of 60. As of Wednesday morning most of those shops had bumped the Tigers to -3, while the total held steady.

 

Tigers-Jackets: The Match-Up
Georgia Tech went off this season as a 25/1 shot to win the ACC, with a wins OVER/UNDER of 7.5. At 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS and 5-2 in conference play the Wreck trails first-place Duke by one game in the Coastal Division, and they've already played OVER their win total.

Tech opened this season 5-0, including a 27-24 win at Virginia Tech and a 28-17 victory over Miami. The Wreck then lost two games in a row, 31-25 to Duke and 48-43 at North Carolina. But Tech has won and covered its last three games in a row, beating Pitt 56-28 as a three-point dog, Virginia 35-10 as four-point chalk and, last week, North Carolina State 56-23 as a three-point favorite. The Jackets outgained the Wolfpack last week 549-368 and outrushed them 479-155, and overall; Georgia Tech has outgained and outrushed nine of ten opponents.

Clemson, meanwhile, went off this season getting 10/1 to win the ACC, with a wins OVER/UNDER of 8.5. At 7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS and 6-1 in conference play the Tigers trail first-place Florida State by a game and a tiebreaker in the Atlantic Division, and needs two wins in their last three games to play OVER their total.

Clemson began this season 1-2, with a 45-21 loss to Georgia and a 23-17 overtime defeat against a Winston-less Florida State. But since then the Tigers have won six games in a row, although they've also lost their last four ATS. They beat North Carolina 50-35, covering as two-touchdown favorites, and North Carolina State 41-0, covering again at -14. They then beat Louisville 23-17 but couldn't cover at -8; beat Boston College 17-13 but couldn't cover at -5; beat Syracuse 16-6 but couldn't cover at -16; and last week won at Wake Forest 34-20 but couldn't cover at -20.

Last week's game was tied at 20-20 early in the fourth quarter, until Clemson scored the last two touchdowns of the game. But the Tigers dominated statistically, outgaining the Demon Deacons 427-119, outrushing them 145-7.

For the season Clemson has outgained and outrushed seven of nine opponents. So in two games this season against common opponents – North Carolina and North Carolina State – Clemson is 2-0 both SU and ATS, while Georgia Tech is 1-1 both SU and ATS.

 

Tigers-Jackets Recent History
As mentioned above Clemson has won and covered three of the last four meetings in this series, including a 55-31 victory last year, and the cover as a 10-point home favorite.

The Tigers jumped out to a 20-0 lead in last year's game, allowed Tech to get within 27-17 in the third quarter, then pulled away from there. The Wreck outrushed Clemson 248-168, but Tigers QB Tajh Boyd hit on 20 of 26 throws for 340 yards and four scores.

That game played OVER its total of 62 on a Georgia Tech score late in the third quarter.

 

Tigers-Jackets Betting Trends
Clemson is 4-5 on the totals this season, as Tigers games have averaged 51 points.

Georgia Tech is 6-4 on the totals, as Jackets games have averaged 65 points.

 

Injury Update
Clemson QB Deshaun Watson has missed the last three games with a broken bone in his hand, but reports indicate he will return to action Saturday.

 

Tigers-Jackets Free Pick
Watson's return will help a Clemson offense that had gone a bit stagnant without him, and the Tigers own a big edge on defense. So we like the visitors as our College Football Pick in this match-up.

Free College Football Pick: Clemson -3 at Bookmaker