ACC Week 3 Overview: FSU Oozes Value at Syracuse

Louisville Cardinals

Jay Pryce

Monday, September 10, 2018 1:21 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 10, 2018 1:21 PM UTC

Florida State is a small favorite at Syracuse in our ACC spotlight game of the week. Here's why you need to lay the points with the Seminoles.

Around the ACC (All Games Saturday Unless Noted)

Boston College (-5.5) at Wake Forest, Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET, on ESPN: One has to go back to 2009 to uncover a matchup in which Boston College (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) and Wake Forest (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) combined for greater than 46 points in their annual series. Ignore the fact each program is coming off 50-point efforts.

No. 18 Central Florida (-13.5) at North Carolina, noon ET, on FS1: North Carolina (0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS) has hit rock bottom. It fell 41-19 to ECU last time out, despite the Pirates allowing 39.2 points per game since the start of 2016. Good luck matching a Central Florida (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) offense that has put up 30-plus in 14 straight games.

No. 21 Miami (-10) at Toledo, noon ET: Since 2009, Miami (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) is 5-0 SU and ATS facing non-Power 5 opponents on the road when ranked in the AP Poll. The Hurricanes are covering a -8.9 average line by a whopping 17.5 points per game.

East Carolina at No. 12 Virginia Tech (-29), 12:20 p.m. ET, on ACC Network: Virginia Tech (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) is just 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games hosting non-conference opponents when ranked, The Hokies kick off 26.6-point favorites in this spot, but own a 22.3 point differential.

Georgia Tech (-3.5) at Pitt, 12:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network: Georgia Tech (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) or Pitt (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) has scored 31 points or more five times in the last four matchups. The "over" is appealing.

Ohio at Virginia (-7), 3 p.m. ET, on ACC Network: Virginia (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) has dropped its last two matchups against MAC opponents when kicking off a single-digit favorite. In 2006, the Cavaliers lost 17-10 hosting Western Michigan as 9.5-point chalk, and sustained a 48-27 beatdown by Ball State in 2013 gifting 4 points.

Duke at Baylor (-1.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, on FS1: The "under" is 8-2 all-time behind head coach David Cutcliffe when Duke (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) goes off a road favorite. Opponents average 15.0 points per game. Expect the line jump the fence in the Blue Devils’ favor.

Georgia Southern at No. 2 Clemson (-34.5), 3:30 p.m. ET: Clemson (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) owns a 22.8 average margin of victory over Sun Belt foes under head coach Dabo Swinney. Georgia Southern (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS), meanwhile, has surrender at least 41 points in each of five matchups against ranked opponents dating to the 1990s.

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We couldn't have done it without our #ClemsonFamily on the road last night #ALLIN 🐅 pic.twitter.com/v3VhXVs6OC

— Clemson Football (@ClemsonFB) September 9, 2018
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No. 14 West Virginia (-4) at N.C. State, 3:30 p.m. ET: Head coach Dave Doeren has pulled off just one upset in 12 home games catching points at Carter-Finley Stadium leading N.C. State (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS). When gifted 6 points or fewer on the college football odds board, the Wolfpack have covered just one of seven matchups, last year’s 39-25 win over Louisville.

Western Kentucky at Louisville (-21), 7:30 p.m. ET, on ACC Network: Louisville (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) posts 48.6 points per game hosting non-Power 5 opponents under head coach Bobby Petrino. Western Kentucky (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) yields 40.9 per game in its last 26 contest as road underdogs. The "over" should be on every bettor’s radar.

Earlier Game Picks:

ACC Spotlight: Florida State (-2.5) at SyracuseSaturday, noon ET (ESPN)Free NCAAF Pick: FSUBest Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Florida State (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) rallied for 15 points in the final five minutes to dispose of FCS Samford 36-26 on Saturday. Let that sink in.

The first eight quarters under new head coach Willie Taggart are bordering on a catastrophe. The offense, aiming to prove more explosive and big-play oriented, has failed to register a third-quarter point. The defense is more aggressive, generating nine turnovers through two games, but somehow let the Bulldogs tally 535 total yards, 78 more than Taggart’s squad. Since 2006, the program has allowed as many against an unranked opponent twice, and against much stronger conference opponents (N.C. State, 2009; North Carolina, 2016).

Syracuse (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS), meanwhile, has scored 117 points through two games, 24.2 more than the market projected. Victories include last week’s 62-10 drubbing of Wagner and a 55-42 shootout win at Western Michigan in the opener. This is the sixth time the Orange has surpassed its team total in two straight under head coach Dino Babers. It’s followed up going 1-4 SU and ATS, failing to reach its team total in all but one by an 11.6 average

Look for Florida State to put it all together this weekend. Since 1989, Syracuse posts 14.8 points per game against the superior talented Seminoles. The offense musters an average 331.6 yards, never scoring more than the 24 points it put up in 2017 in nine meetings. Projected score: 42-24 Seminoles.

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Mood. 😝 #DoSomething pic.twitter.com/iWkRpZdIpg

— FSU Football (@FSUFootball) September 9, 2018
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