ACC Week 13 Overview: Clemson To Roll In Palmetto Rivalry

Jay Pryce

Monday, November 19, 2018 12:30 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 19, 2018 12:30 PM UTC

No. 2 Clemson will rule both sides of the ball in a lopsided Palmetto Bowl against South Carolina on Saturday night. Our free pick and peek at the final week of the ACC regular-season schedule here. 

ACC Spotlight: South Carolina at No. 2 Clemson (-25.5)Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, on ESPNFree NCAAF Pick: Clemson ATSBest Line Offered: BetOnline

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Oddsmakers pit Clemson (11-0 SU, 7-4 ATS) a 19-point favorite in Games of the Year lines in May, climbing to -22 prior to Week 1. The 25.5-point reoffering is the second longest line in the Palmetto Bowl since at least 1980. The Tigers romped 56-7 as 26.5-point chalk two years ago. Will this year’s meeting be another double-digit blowout? You bet.

South Carolina (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) has a horrible history scoring when a huge underdog under head coach Will Muschamp. It’s kicked off catching 10 points or more in eight contests, averaging 15.9 points on 309.1 yards per game.

This year’s squad is Muschamp’s most efficient of all, ranking 35th nationally with 0.449 points per play. It has put up more points than its opponent allows for the season in all but two games, and by a healthy 11.3 average.

Few defenses are as strong as the Tigers, however. Clemson’s 12.6 points per game against FBS schools only ranks as the top scoring unit in the country. It has held every team under their scoring average by 23.7 points per game. The Gamecocks enter with 32.8 per tilt. If they reach 20 points, consider it a scoring victory.

South Carolina’s defense is not Muschamp quality at all. The unit can’t stop the run and force teams off the field. They allow 4.6 yards per carry and a 57.86 percent opponent time of possession. The latter, which ranks second to last among FBS schools, equates to a little more than 34.5 minutes per game.

Since 2016, Clemson is 15-1 SU and 11-4 ATS squaring off against teams yielding more than 29.5 minutes of possession per game for the year. It is winning by a 30.8 average margin of victory. There is a reason this line is lopsided in the rivalry. These teams are miles apart in talent and preparation. Tigers roll. Lay the points.

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11-0.

Next goal: Win the State. #ALLIN pic.twitter.com/kRFqSuZMMO

— Clemson Football (@ClemsonFB) November 18, 2018
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All Games Saturday (Unless Noted)

Virginia (-4) at Virginia Tech, Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET, on ABC

Virginia (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) is a lowly 1-19 SU and 6-13 ATS in the Commonwealth rivalry since 1998. This is just the third time the Cavaliers are kicking off the betting favorite in this span. To give you an idea how different these two seasons have unfolded, Virginia Tech (4-6 SU, 3-7) was an 18-point favorite in preseason lines. The Hokies will miss their first bowl game in 25 years.

No. 13 Florida (-4) at Florida State, noon ET, on ABC

Since 1980, Florida (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS when kicking off the betting favorite in the Sunshine Showdown, covering a -8.0 average line by 11.6 points per contest. Florida State (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) was a touchdown favorite in Games of the Year lines released in May, slipping to -5.5 during early adjustments. Sharp bettors suspected something.

No. 19 Syracuse at Boston College (OFF), noon ET, on ESPN

The line is off the board with the status of Syracuse (8-3 SU, 8-3 ATS) QB Eric Dungey unknown. Dungey went out with an upper-body injury in a 36-3 defeat at Notre Dame last Saturday. Insiders believe the senior’s stellar collegiate career may be over. Expect the offense to suffer. Toss out a pair of overtime contests, and the ‘under’ is 14-5-2 (73.7 percent) when the Orange faces an ACC foe under head coach Dino Babers.

Georgia Tech at No. 5 Georgia, noon ET, on SEC Network

In the last 20 years, No.5 Georgia (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the series when it enters ranked and Georgia Tech (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) unranked. The Bulldogs are covering an -11.4 average line by 17.4 points per game. The rout is likely.

N.C. State (-6) at North Carolina, 12:20 p.m. ET, on ACC Network

North Carolina (2-8 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) is 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS all-time as a home underdog under head coach Larry Fedora. The Tar Heels allow 31.0 points per game under these conditions.

Wake Forest at Duke (-12.5), 12:30 p.m. ET, on ACC Network

Since 1980, Duke (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) is 6-1 SU and ATS when laying a touchdown or more against Wake Forest (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS). The Blue Devils post 39.1 points per game.

No. 24 Pitt at Miami (-5.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, on ESPN

The "under" is 14-6-1 (70.0 percent) all-time when Miami kicks off in a contest with a single-digit line behind head coach Mark Richt.

No. 17 Kentucky (-17.5) at Louisville, 7 p.m. ET, on ESPN2

Louisville (2-9 SU, 1-10 ATS) opened a 9-point favorite in preseason lines. The number adjusted by 26.5 points for the reoffering Sunday afternoon.

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