AAC Week 6 Overview: Two Plays on Navy vs. Air Force

Monday, October 1, 2018 4:58 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 1, 2018 4:58 PM UTC

The first of three Commander-In-Chief contests will be played Saturday in Colorado, with the winner grabbing the edge. Let's look at that matchup and others in the American Athletic Conference.

<p style="text-align:right"><em><strong>Doug's 2018 NCAAF Picks Record: 6-4</strong></em></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/navy-midshipmen-vs-air-force-falcons-3453316/odds/" title="Game Odds">AAC Spotlight: Navy (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS ) at Air Force (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Free NCAAF Picks: Navy ATS and 'Under'</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4674&amp;book=Sports Betting" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Sports Betting</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3453316, "sportsbooksIds":[999991,19,180,1275,1096], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>Any game involving two military schools might not be the best brand of football, but you can be sure it will be a disciplined contest. The regiment these students have to follow would make almost any adult cringe, let alone college students. But they are at these schools by choice and understand the commitment they made. Though both these schools are in conferences, this is one of two extremely important contests they play each year.</p><p>The starting <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/" target="_blank" title="Live NCAAF Odds">college football odds</a> have Navy as a -3.5 point road favorite. They are 9-4 ATS at Colorado Springs, though they have won at Falcon Stadium just five times in that stretch.</p><p>[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/hftGdSziuQU", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]</p><p>The Falcons, like their counterparts, are an option team, though in recent years Air Force has thrown the ball more often than others who run the same offense. With regular starting quarterback Isaiah Sanders out with a concussion, the Falcons' ground attack is not the same. Lacking the threat of the pass and with inexperienced quarterbacks not as skilled in making decisions on the move, Nevada was able to hold Air Force to 154 yards rushing at 3.1 yards per attempt and beat them 28-25. Going into that contest, the Falcons were averaging 288.3 rushing yards a game.</p><p>As of this writing, Sanders' status is unknown, but suffice to say after he set a school record of 44 carries in the loss to Utah State, his presence is extremely important to coach Troy Calhoun's club.</p><p>The military schools recruit more for offense than defense. That is why a lot of times when facing passing teams, they don't have the athletes in the secondary to match up. That is why Navy lost to Hawai'i in their opener and to a lesser degree to SMU.</p><p>The Navy offense is fine, leading the nation in rushing at more than 355 yards, though they are lacking that one back who can burst for big yards and have been behind the chains after first down more regularly. In Navy's OT setback to SMU, the three turnovers kept the Mustangs in the game and contributed to the Midshipmen falling. If Navy can keep the miscues to one or less, they should be able to win.</p><p>If Sanders plays, he changes the Air Force offense, but that is not known. Even if he does play, Navy still has the better squad and they are 16-5 ATS on the road off a loss by six or fewer points.</p><p>Because of some uncertainty, what very likely is the better choice for <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/" target="_blank" title="Free NCAAF Picks">college football picks</a> is the "under." These teams are 11-3 "under" of late, including 6-1 "under" at Air Force. A lower score makes sense.</p><p> </p><h2 style="text-align:center">Around the AAC (All Games Saturday Unless Noted)</h2><p><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/tulsa-golden-hurricane-vs-houston-cougars-3448892/odds/" title="Game Odds">Tulsa at Houston (-18)</a>, Thursday, 8 p.m. ET, on ESPN: </strong>The Golden Hurricane come in a decided road underdog but is 7-1 ATS in that role against winning home teams. This is Houston's conference opener and they are 15-6 ATS after scoring 40 or more points.</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/tulane-green-wave-vs-cincinnati-bearcats-3448650/odds/" title="Game Odds">Tulane at Cincinnati (-7.5)</a>, noon ET, on ESPNU: </strong>The Green Wave will try and knock off Cincinnati and is 7-2 ATS after rushing for 200 or more yards. Cincinnati is 5-0 for the first time since 2012. The opening spread seems low, but the Bearcats are 3-14 ATS at home of late.</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/east-carolina-pirates-vs-temple-owls-3448905/odds/" title="Game Odds">East Carolina at Temple (-11.5)</a>, noon ET, on ESPNews: </strong>Important in conference play for both teams. ECU has not enjoyed much success in AAC action with 7-25-1 ATS record. Temple has been the polar opposite at 22-6 ATS in league play.</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/south-florida-bulls-vs-massachusetts-minutemen-3448361/odds/" title="Game Odds">South Florida (-14) at Massachusetts</a>, 3:30 p.m. ET, on ELVN: </strong>The Bulls have stumbled on the road a bit at 2-6 ATS in recent games. UMass scores and gives up a lot of points and is 19-7 "over" in their past 26 contests.</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/southern-methodist-mustangs-vs-ucf-knights-3448897/odds/" title="Game Odds">SMU at Central Florida (-24)</a>, 7 p.m. ET, on ESPNU: </strong>Tough spot for the Mustangs and the visitor is 0-6-1 ATS in this series. Central Florida remains undefeated and is 9-3-1 ATS when they are off a cover.</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/connecticut-huskies-vs-memphis-tigers-3448646/odds/" title="Game Odds">Connecticut at Memphis (-33)</a>, 7 p.m. ET, on CBSSN: </strong>UConn is being outscored by 31.2 PPG and is conceding an FBS worst 53.4 PPG. Memphis is off an ugly loss at Tulane and is 10-4 ATS after rushing for less than 100 yards.</p>
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