AAC Week 3 Overview: SMU Will Be Mauled by Michigan at Big House

Monday, September 10, 2018 6:18 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 10, 2018 6:18 PM UTC

Michigan went to work and earned their first victory of the season last week over Western Michigan. The Wolverines moved to No. 19 in the polls and are very chalky favorites over visiting SMU on Saturday.

<p style="text-align:right"><em><strong>Doug's 2018 CFB Record: 3-1</strong></em></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/southern-methodist-mustangs-vs-michigan-wolverines-3448261/odds/" title="Game Odds">AAC Spotlight: SMU (0-2 SU and ATS) at Michigan (1-1 SU and ATS)</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (BTN)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Free NCAAF Pick: Michigan -35.5</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4417&amp;book=YouWager" rel="nofollow" title="Top rated Sportsbook">YouWager</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3448261, "sportsbooksIds":[139,1275,19,238,274], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>Michigan blew out one of several directional Michigan universities (Western in this case) 49-3 as a 27.5-point favorite and will look to lay the lumber to Southern Methodist in Ann Arbor before commencing with Big Ten play.</p><p>SMU was trounced by TCU 42-12 as 23.5-point home underdogs and the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/" target="_blank" title="Live NCAAF Odds">college football odds board</a> early this week had them as +35.5-point away pooches for the Michigan game. Do the Mustangs have any shot to cover the spread?</p><p>SMU is ranked 126th out of 130 FBS programs in total offense, averaging a mere 249 yards a game. The Mustangs have virtually no running game at 67.5 yards per contest and average an abysmal 2.6 yards per attempt. Michigan is ranked 15th in total defense and that figure will improve as the season moves along, especially facing teams like this.</p><p>It's almost impossible to imagine QB Ben Hicks will not be under continual pressure without a running game and he will be tired of seeing defensive ends Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich all afternoon.</p><p>[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/umL68C_NKgY", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]</p><p>If you thought QB Shea Patterson and the Michigan offense were going to be completely different, thus far you are wholly disappointed.</p><p>The Wolverines passed only 18 times last week, completing 13 for 143 yards, compared to running for 308 yards. Maybe coach Jim Harbaugh wanted to establish the running game first before working further on the passing offense. With battles against Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State starting in about a month, Michigan would seem to want a fined-tuned passing offense in case the running game is slowed.</p><p>SMU would appear the perfect opponent to really work on Patterson's timing in games with his receivers.</p><p>For <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/" target="_blank" title="Free NCAAF Picks">college football picks</a>, I refer to these as "want too" betting games. If Michigan wants to cover the enormous spread, they do. If they are casual and exhibit little passion, they win 31-0 and come up short.</p><p>Since 2008, Meechigan is only 14-14 ATS when handing 20 or more points, with SMU 9-13-1 ATS in the exact opposite role. Look for the Wolverines to ride the Mustangs hard in the second half and win 49-7 to cover.</p><p> </p><h2>Around the AAC (All Games Saturday Unless Noted)</h2><p><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/georgia-state-panthers-vs-memphis-tigers-3448822/odds/" title="Game Odds">Georgia State at Memphis (-24.5)</a>, Friday, 7 p.m. ET, on ESPN: </strong>Memphis was dealt a large blow in losing to Navy to repeat as AAC West champs, but has won 14 straight non-Saturday games. Georgia State is 22-10 ATS on the road in their brief FBS history.</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/ucf-knights-vs-north-carolina-tar-heels-3449317/odds/" title="Game Odds">No. 18 UCF (-14.5) at North Carolina</a>, noon ET, on ESPNU:</strong> Central Florida brings their 15-game winning streak (8-5-1 ATS) to Chapel Hill to face suspension-ridden North Carolina. The Tar Heels are 16-30 ATS at home games in the first month of the season.</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/temple-owls-vs-maryland-terrapins-3448260/odds/" title="Game Odds">Temple (+16) at Maryland</a>, noon ET, on BTN:</strong> Temple was supposed to be a contender in the AAC East but is 0-2 SU and ATS as nonconference favorites. Maryland leads the series all-time with a 7-1 (5-3 ATS) record.</p><p><strong>Rhode Island at Connecticut (TBA), noon ET, on ESPN3:</strong> Rhode Island is 2-0 to the start the season and is 2-8 against UConn in their most recent meetings. Connecticut was blasted twice by ranked foes and has not covered as a home favorite since 2011. (0-11 ATS)</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/east-carolina-pirates-vs-virginia-tech-hokies-3449460/odds/" title="Game Odds">East Carolina (+29) at No. 13 Virginia Tech</a>, 12:20 a.m. ET, on ACCN:</strong> East Carolina got a surprise win over North Carolina last week, but a trip to Blacksburg will not be as easy being 1-9 ATS as a road underdog. These teams have met nine of the past 10 years and Virginia Tech is 6-3 SU and 3-6 ATS.</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/tulane-green-wave-vs-uab-blazers-3449310/odds/" title="Game Odds">Tulane (-3.5) at UAB</a>, 1 p.m. ET:</strong> First meeting since 2012, but prior to this these southern schools played nine times since 1999. Tulane holds a 5-4 and 6-2-1 ATS margin.</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/south-florida-bulls-vs-illinois-fighting-illini-3448217/odds/" title="Game Odds">South Florida (-9.5) vs. Illinois</a>, 3:30 p.m. ET, on BTN:</strong> This matchup is being played at Soldier Field in Chicago. USF won last year's contest 47-23 as 16.5 point favorites, rushing for 376 yards. Illinois has started 2-0 for the sixth straight season and is 0-5 SU and 1-4 in Game 3.</p><p><strong>Lehigh at Navy (TBA), 3:30 p.m. ET, on CBSSN:</strong> Lehigh of the Patriot Conference is 1-1 to 2018 and the last time they faced Navy was 105 years ago. Navy had a great bounce-back win against Memphis but is just 2-6 AATS as home favorites the last two years.</p><p><strong>Houston (TBA) at Texas Tech, 4:15 p.m. ET, on Fox:</strong> If Houston can win this Lone State showdown, the Cougars will have legitimate shot at being 6-0 heading to the game at Navy. Texas Tech is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS since 1992 in this confrontation of old Southwest Conference rivals.</p><p><strong>Alabama A&amp;M at Cincinnati (TBA), 7 p.m. ET, on ESPN3:</strong> The Bulldogs from the SWAC are 1-1 to start this season and face a Cincinnati team that is a stunning 2-0 SU and ATS. The Bearcats are 0-3 ATS in home openers of late, including a 52-10 win as 45-point favorites versus the same opponent.</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/arkansas-state-red-wolves-vs-tulsa-golden-hurricane-3449034/odds/" title="Game Odds">Arkansas State at Tulsa (+1)</a>, 7 p.m. ET, on CBSSN:</strong> After getting ambushed by Alabama, Arkansas State welcomes the step down in class, but is just 1-8 ATS in September the last three years. First meeting since 2003 and Tulsa is 6-3 ATS is just 5-8 ATS in a sandwiched home game since 2014.</p>
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