A 1,600 Mile Bloody Mary Drive for Early Saturday Value Plays

Willie Bee

Friday, November 17, 2017 3:06 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 17, 2017 3:06 PM UTC

We’re looking for value bets on the early college football odds board, and our handicapper is focusing on a pair of Big 12 tilts plus an SEC rivalry.

Let’s get our Saturday Bloody Mary run started along the Monongahela River in Morgantown for the Big 12 encounter between the Texas Longhorns and West Virginia Mountaineers. ESPN has the noon (ET) broadcast from Milan Puskar Stadium, and the NCAA football odds have the Mountaineers laying 3-3½ with 53-53½ for the total.

The total is an interesting play since it’s the lowest for a West Virginia game this season. The Mountaineers have gone ‘under’ their last two contests while Texas, one of the Big 12’s tougher defenses to score on, have trended that way in four of its last five. The weather forecast – 90% chance of rain which could turn to snow overnight – makes the total a less desirable play, however. West Virginia has won and covered the last two as the favorite, and that’s where I’m finding the most value in this encounter.

Free NCAAF Pick: West Virginia -3Best Line Offered: Heritage

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’Dogs & Hogs Collide In Arkansas

We head southwest about a thousand miles and into the Ozarks where we find the Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in an SEC get-together. For those of you not traveling with us, have your bartender tune in CBS when you order your second brunch cocktail and be prepared to lay 12 on MSU with 57½-58½ for the scoreboard mark.

Mississippi State looks like a completely different team than the one that got manhandled earlier this year at Georgia and Auburn. The Bulldogs rebounded with 4-straight wins after that before being stopped by No. 1 Alabama a week ago, hanging with the Tide to grab the cover in the 31-24 final. Arkansas stopped a 4-game slide against the Bulldogs with a 58-42 win in Starkville a year ago, but there’s not a whole lot to like about the Razorbacks this time.

There’s also not to like about the forecast, especially the strong NW winds that could gust as high as 40 mph Saturday afternoon in Fayetteville. Road teams have covered the last four, so that’s the way I’ll go with my free college football pick.

Free NCAAF Pick: Mississippi State -12Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Injuries & Wind Could Keep Scoring Down In Lubbock

From there we head 600 miles into the Lone Star State and back into  Big 12 action. We’ll pick up the TCU Horned Frogs on our way as they take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Have your bartender set the telly to Fox Sports 1 for the contest that finds Bookmaker selling the Frogs at -6½ with 57½ for the total.

Texas Christian comes off a disappointing performance against Oklahoma that knocked the Horned Frogs out of the Big 12 championship hunt. Gary Patterson’s team is banged up in addition to being dejected, the biggest injury concern surrounding QB Kenny Hill who is questionable. Texas Tech also might be without its two leading running backs, Tre King (leg) and Justin Stockton (concussion).

And like the forecast in Arkansas, the weatherman is calling for a windy day in the Texas Panhandle where gusts could top 40 mph. It all adds up to an ‘under’ play for me.

Free NCAAF Pick: Under 57½Best Line Offered: Heritage

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