College Football Week 9 is finally in the books, just before Midnight here in Sin City and some betting Trends continued to flourish, including Ball State continuing to be a money pit at Home, Michigan State falling to 0-8 ATS in its L8 in the role of Road Favorites and Boise State proving once again that it can be a nice money-maker on the Road despite the Broncos horrific ATS losing streak at Home on the (ugly) Blue Turf.
1—Betting Against Ball State at Home at Scheumann Stadium in Muncie Last 3 Seasons Has Proved Profitable
On Thursday night, Ball State (2-6 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) lost to Toledo as huge 27-point Home Underdogs, 58-17 in a MAC game which saw the Rocket outscore David Letterman U., 28-7 to take a commanding 51-17 lead and cover the healthy Point Spread. With the ATS Loss, Ball State is now a money-burning 5-15 ATS its L20 Home Games at Scheumann Stadium in Muncie, Indiana (25%) under 2nd-year Head Coach Mike Neu (8-10-1 ATS) and the Cardinals are definitely Fade-worthy every time they are at Home. Ball State’s next Home date comes in Week 12 when Buffalo heads to Muncie (BUF 3-1 ATS L4 vs BALL) followed by the Regular Season finale in Week 13 with Miami Ohio paying a visit to Scheumann Stadium (FieldTurf) and the last chance to profit from this Trend this NCAA Football season (MIAMI 3-1 ATS L4 at BALL) in what seem like two very good spots to bet against Ball State with expected early money on the (presumed) Road Favorite Bulls and Redhawks.
2—Michigan State Fade-Worthy 0-8 ATS L8 in Role As Road Favorite Lately
Michigan State (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) fell to 0-8 ATS its L8 games in the role of Road Favorite after a dramatic 39-31 Loss in 3 OT’s to Northwestern in Evanston in Week 9 play on Saturday in a game that had to send Under bettors running for cover after a 17-17 score at the end of Regulation (Total 41½) with only a 3-0, 6-0 or 7-0, 1-OT scoreline being able to save the game from going Over. After 22 points points in OT for the host Wildcats to the Spartans’ 14, the ATS Loss for Michigan State (MSU -1½) was their 8th straight in the role of Road Favorite with Sparty’s last ATS cover in that situation coming at Penn State in the last game of the 2015 Regular Season with Michigan State winning 34-10 and getting the money as 13½-point Road chalks. The next spot where the Spartans should be a Road Favorite? At Rutgers in the Regular Season finale in Week 13 on Nov. 25. MSU has outscored the Scarlet Knights 94-3 at Home at East Lansing, but in the lone Big Ten meeting between the two since Rutgers (3-5 SU, 6-2 ATS) joined the conference in New Jersey, the Scarlet Knights covered ATS in Piscataway in 2015, losing 31-24 as 12½ Home Underdogs.
3—Former Pac-12 Darlings UCLA Now Proving to be a Fade-worthy Side Here, There and Everywhere...
UCLA (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) fell to 6-17-1 ATS its L22 (26.1%) after losing to #12 Washington, 44-23 on Saturday at Husky Stadium in Seattle, thanks in great part to a 17-0 Washington 3rd Quarter. UCLA has now L8 of 10 lined games dating back to last season with the Bruins only two ATS covers this season coming at Home in the Rose Bowl against paltry Hawai’i in Week 2 (UCLA -24, UCLA won 56-23) and against Oregon at Home in Los Angeles (UCLA -6, UCLA won 31-14) in Week 8. The last time the Bruins (0-4 ATS on Road in 2017) covered a Road game came last season when then #22-ranked UCLA went to Oregon State and shut out the Beavers 41-0 as 16-point Road chalks as Josh Rosen and Thomas Duarte connected on 2 TD passes in Corvallis as the Bruins easily covered ATS. Next up for 6th-year Head Coach Jim Mora (33-39-1 ATS) and UCLA? In Week 10, a Pac-12 date at Utah (4-4 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) in a series which has seen the Utes go a profitable 5-2 ATS the L7. After that Week 11 sees the Bruins hosting Arizona State (UCLA 1-3 ATS L4 vs ASU), a big Week 12 encounter with city rivals USC (3-6 L9 ATS but 4-0 ATS L4 “Home”) followed by the Regular Season finale vs. Cal on the Road in Berkeley in Week 13.
4—Boise State May Blow on Home Blue Turf, But Broncos Have Been a Real Money-Maker on Road of Late
Boise State (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) may be a pathetic 0-12-1 ATS in its L13 games at Home on its sacred Blue (Field-) Turf in Boise (Albertsons Stadium), but the Broncos improved to 4-0 ATS on Road this season and a profitable 9-2 ATS its L11 on the Road (81.8%) after Boise State easily handled host Utah State on Saturday, 41-14, covering ATS as 13-point Road chalks at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium in Ogden, Utah on Saturday night in a MWC game which saw the Broncos jump out to a 28-3 Halftime lead in the Beehive State and then never look back. Few teams in College Football are seldom so consistently bad ATS at Home while being good ATS on the Road and the closest team that comes close to fitting that bill (just for the FBS 2017 Regular Season) would probably be the Big Ten’s Nebraska (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) who are 0-5 ATS at Home in Lincoln but a perfect 3-0 ATS on the Road after winning outright as 5-point Underdogs at Purdue on Saturday (NEB +165 Moneyline, SportsInteraction.com). Before a likely Bowl appearance in late December, the Boise State (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) schedule sees the Broncos and their new-wave two-QB system hosting Nevada on Saturday in Week 10 (BOISE 1-6-1 ATS L8, 0-4 ATS L4 Home vs NEVADA), at Colorado State in Week 11 (11/11, BOISE ST 3-1 ATS L4), hosting Air Force on the Blue Turf of Boise in Week 12 (11/18, BOISE ST 0-5 ATS L5 vs AFA) and then at Fresno State in the Regular Season Finale in Week 13 (11/25, 8-2 ATS L10, 4-0 ATS L4 on Road.)
5—Aloha a mi Dinero? Hawai’i Falls to 4-17 ATS L21 Home Games in Honolulu After SU/ATS Loss to Aztecs
After losing outright and ATS to San Diego State on Saturday night at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu as 8½-point Home Underdogs, 28-7, Hawaii (3-5 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) is now a depressing 4-17 ATS its L21 games at Home (19%) in the beautiful and friendly, pineapple-strewn confines of the Aloha State where one would think that 2nd-year Head Coach Nick Rolovich (7-13-1 ATS) and the Rainbow Warriors would have some distinct advantage being 2,607 miles away from a (geographically) “closer” school like San Diego State and having at least a 3-Hour Time Zone difference (from Pacific Time Zone) dwelling in the Hawaii-Aleutian Time Zone. Whatever the problem, Hawaii is 0-3-1 ATS in Honolulu this Regular Season after going 1-4 ATS in 2016 and 1-5 ATS in 2015 according to my trusty 2017 Marc Lawrence Playbook. Once a school that produced dynamic QBs like Timmy Chang and Colt Brennan with Offenses that could seemingly score in the blink of an eye, this former WAC team has sort of devolved as a program since joining the MWC.
The next Home date for the Rainbow Warriors? That’s Week 13 when Independent and ATS King Rat BYU (1-8 ATS) heads to The Islands in what should actually be a tough game for host Hawaii with former MWC school BYU having six proud Hawaiians on its Roster. The Cougars—who got their first ATS cover of the 2017 Regular Season in a 42-21 dismantling of San Jose State in Provo on Saturday afternoon (BYU -8½, 51o -120, BetOnline)—are a profitable 3-1 ATS the L4 trips to the Islands but these two haven’t met since 2012 when BYU blanked Hawaii, 41-0 in Utah, covering ATS as big, 26-point Home Favorites when the Cougars were still an NCAA player and still playing in the MWC. My how times have changed.