Conference play dominated College Football Week 8. Let’s examine that and four other bet-worthy Trends learned from games played from Wednesday through Saturday.
On Thursday night at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas in Sun Belt Conference play, host Arkansas State trounced UL Lafayette, 37-3 (ARK ST -12½, 65½) in a game the Red Wolves led 34-3 at Halftime, as they improved to 3-0 ATS at Home in Jonesboro on the Regular Season (5-1 ATS overall) and a profitable 16-5 ATS at Home the L3+ seasons. QB Justin Hansen (#1 passing in Sun Belt) and Arkansas State have two Home games remaining on its schedule: Week 11 vs. Texas State and the Regular Season finale in Week 13 vs.Troy (ARK ST 5-0 ATS L5) and with Ja’Von Rolland-Jones (5.5 Sacks, #1 in Sun Belt), Caleb Caston (4.0 Sacks, #5 in Sun Belt) and the Red Wolves Defense having allowed a total of just 20 points in its L2 games (2 TDs, 2 FGs), this may be a team to possibly also think about backing on the Road. Week 9 will have them facing New Mexico St.
2—Boston College Improves to 10-2-1 ATS L13 as Road Underdog, Shock Cavaliers at Virginia
Schizophrenic Boston College went to Charlottesville in Week 8 and blew out Virginia as 7-point Road Underdogs in an ACC clash, 41-10, winning its 6th straight ATS as a Road Underdog and improving to 10-2-1 ATS the L13 in the betting role. Fifth-year head Coach Steve Addazio (28-23-3 ATS) and the Eagles ran off to a huge 34-7 lead after 3 quarters in Virginia and BC leveled its Regular Season record, covering their 5th straight ATS in the process and ending a 4-game ATS Win Streak for the host Cavaliers. Believe. The Eagles are now a surprising 5-0 SU against Virginia (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) since 1992. Next up for Boston College is a Week 9 date on Thursday night against FSU at Home at Alumni Stadium (FieldTurf) in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts with the next chance to be a Road Underdog and to try to apply this betworthy Trend coming at Syracuse in the Regular Season finale on Saturday, Nov. 25 (BC 1-3 ATS L4).
3—Florida State (0-5-1 ATS) Now Fade-able After Loss to L’ville as 7-Point Home Chalks? Not So Fast...
Florida State seemed to be a solid contender for the 2018 CFP Championship before QB Deondre Francois suffered an injury in the opener in the 4th Quarter vs. #1 Alabama, and since then, it’s all been downhill for 8th-year Head Coach Jimbo Fisher (46-46-1 ATS) and the Seminoles who lost at were upset by Louisville, 31-28 in Tallahassee on Saturday afternoon in Week 8 play, sending the Seminoles (2-4 SU, 2-3 ACC) to a woeful 0-4-1 ATS this 2017 NCAA Football Regular Season and to 0-5-1 ATS (FSU -7, 58) as 2017 Heisman Trophy Winner Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals won outright as +250 Underdogs on the Moneyline (SportsBetting.ag) in this ACC showdown. But bettor beware as this Trend may not be a long-term one either with Florida State 8-4 ATS last season and without Francis from such a critical point after so much Offseason preparation, quickly forcing Freshman QB James Blackman into duty, the jury is still out on blind fade-worthiness. The Seminoles do still have three winnable games left on the Regular Season Schedule (BC, SYR, DEL ST) but Road dates on the fall horizon against defending national champions Clemson (Nov. 11)—still in the CFP hunt—and intra-state rivals Florida (Nov. 25) means FSU may have trouble finishing at the .500 mark with that season-ender against Florida at Tallahassee possibly determining that theoretical fate (6-5 or 5-6 SU) for the Noles. The ACC has suddenly become a pretty tough place for FSU and Blackman but it’s important to remember Freshman starters anywhere are just 365 days (and less) removed from playing High School football and the ACC is (still) extremely underrated in the big scheme of things, despite its Power Five conference reality.
4—Appalachian State a Fade Team at Home, Fall to 2-10 ATS L12 Games at Kidd-Brewer Stadium in Boone
Appalachian State (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) fell to 2-10 ATS its L12 games at Home at Kidd Brewer Stadium (FieldTurf) in Boone, North Carolina, beating Coastal Carolina (1-6 SU, 2-4 ATS) by 8 points, 37-29 (APP ST -20½, 51, BookMaker), but failing to cover the big Point Spread on Saturday afternoon in a game in which the Tar Heel State hosts actually trailed in, 19-17 at Halftime. Next up for 5th-year Head Coach Scott Satterfield (18-238-1 ATS) and his Mountaineers—who pulled off one of the greatest upsets in NCAA Football history back in 2004 when they went to Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, 34-32, while Appalachian state were still a FCS school (then ranked #1)—are two winnable Sun Belt Conference Road games (Week 9 @ UMass, Week 10 @ UL Monroe) before we can try to apply this Trend again in Weeks 11 and 13 when Appalachian State heads Home again to Boone to host Georgia Southern (Nov. 9) and UL Lafayette (Dec. 2).
5—Northwestern Trending Toward Being an Under Team at Home, 3-0-1 to Start, Under Now 9-1-1 L11 Home
After the Under noticeably went 6-1 in Home games in the 2016 NCAAF Regular Season for Northwestern, Unders are off to a profitable 3-0-1 start this 2017 Regular Season for the Big Ten’s Wildcats after Northwestern defeated Iowa, 17-10 in Overtime no less—on Saturday afternoon in Evanston in Week 8 play at Ryan Field in Evanston in a game which went scoreless until the Hawkeyes scored on a Nathan Stanley to Noah Fant with 40 seconds left in the 2nd Quarter (Total 46½). Wildcats Home games have seen 51, 56 (Push, NU 49-7 BGSU), 38 and now 27 points scored and the Under is now a betworthy 9-1-1 the L11 (90%) games Evanston. On the other hand, on the Road, Northwestern Overs are 3-0 (58, 57, 58) and have gone 11-5 over the last 16 games, not counting Bowls. Next up for 12th-year Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald (68-67 ATS), QB Clayton Thorson, RB Justin Jackson and Northwestern (4-3 ATS)? A Home date Saturday (Oct. 28) with upstart #18 Michigan State.
NCAAF WEEK 9 EARLY TOTALS PICK: Northwestern-Michigan State Under