It was a humbling Week 4 for some, with Oklahoma and Penn State surviving Baylor and Iowa respectively. Let’s take a look at five things we recognized which may help us stay in the black for future weeks.
QB Quinton Flowers and No. 21 South Florida have been impressive this season with the Bulls trying to play the type of Defense they once did that put them on the FBS map. But this team has started slow in games under 1st-year Head Coach Charlie Strong, being outscored by 6 points in the 1st Quarter so far and averaging 3.9 ypp from scrimmage on Offense, but outscoring foes by 77 points and averaging 6.2 ypp from quarters 2-4. South Florida had also committed 18 Penalties in that nemesis 1st Quarter and a total of 20 PenFalties in the other three quarters combined. So is it better to fade South Florida in the 1st Quarter Side market or to back the Bulls in the 2nd Quarter and 2nd Halves? With ratty East Carolina up next week, backing the Bulls both 1st Half and Full Game immediately when those markets open is strongly advised. On Thursday in the College Football Week 4 lidlifter, USF defeated Temple, 43-7 (USF -18½, Intertops) and led 3-0 after 1Q, 20-7 at Halftime, 33-7 after 3Q and then outscored the Owls 10-0 in the 4Q to at Home in Tampa. However, the Bulls have played a paltry schedule to date that has included San José State, FCS Stony Brook, Illinois and Temple and despite W9 consecutive SU and an improved Defense, the deep ball still seems a problem for USF but with ECU (Week 5), Massachusetts (Week 6) and Cincinnati (Week 7) all coming up on the schedule, now seems like a good time to back USF (4-0 SU/ 2-2 ATS).
2—Boise State is Not Your Daddy’s Boise State, Devolved Into Must-Fades at Home
Even the sacred Blue FieldTurf at Albertson’s Stadium in Boise is offering no comfort to HC Bryan Harsin and the Broncos as Friday night's embarrassing 42-23 loss Outright Loss to Virginia displayed with the MWC hosts losing as 14-point favorites (Pinnacle) and outright to the underdog Cavaliers (+447, Pinnacle) who look much better than the number oddsmakers assigned to this game and all that late Boise State money was pretty much dead from the 2nd Quarter on. Virginia held the Broncos to 40 yards Rushing and the 2,370 mile and 3-hour Time Zone difference made no difference to 2nd-year HC Bronco Mendenhall and the Hoos who improved to 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS). After winning and covering ATS in their first two games (TROY, @WSU), the Broncos have now L2 ATS (NM, VA), both at Home where Boise State (10-3 SU, 3-10 ATS) traditionally has played better in past seasons but have gone 1-11 ATS L12 (8.3%), losing all 6 lined games at Albertsons Stadium in the 2016 Regular Season and the last three ATS in the 2015. Next up for Boise State after a Bye Week in Week 5, a trip to Provo, Utah in Week 6 to face Independent BYU—once coached by now-Virginia HC Mendenhall—another team not as great as it once was (BOISE ST. 1-5 ATS L6) followed by a Week 7 date at San Diego State (BOISE ST. 0-4 ATS L4). So at least the Broncos won’t be at Home?
3—#23 Utah Always Worth Consideration at Betting Windows, Improve to 4-0 ATS with Win at Arizona
Thirteenth-year Head Coach Kyle Whittingham (80-67-3 ATS) and #23 Utah are always a good team to think about backing at the betting windows, with the (now) Pac-12’s Utes (9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS in 2016) are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS so far this season and 8-2 ATS their L10. QB Tyler Huntley and Utah are +3.5 ppg against the Point Spread and have a +1.5 ppg TO Margin in games versus FBS North Dakota, heated rivals BYU, San José State and Arizona who the Utes defeated on Friday night against Arizona in Tucson, 30-24. After a Bye in Week 5, Utah face Stanford at Home at Rice-Eccles Stadium in in Salt Lake City in Week 6 (Oct. 7). And the timing couldn’t be better with QB Huntley (Shoulder) having to leave Friday’s game against the Wildcats and having been replaced by Senior Troy Williams. There are few teams left now in FBS which haven’t disappointed their backers at least one time at the betting windows and Utah is still one of them and the Utes have W5 straight ATS overall in the Regular Season dating back to last season.
4—Georgia Unders Now 4-0 on Season, 11-3 L14 Dating Back to 2016-17 Season
With a 31-3 victory over SEC counterparts #17 Mississippi State on Saturday at Home at Sanford Stadium in Athens, all four games #11 Georgia has played this season have gone Under the Total (50u -115, Bovada), to go with a 7-3 string of Unders in the Bulldogs L10 games in the 2016-17 season meaning the Under is 11-3 in their L14 games. Also, 8 of the L9 Georgia (38/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, BetDSI) Home games have gone Under with the Bulldogs Defense (14.3 ppg, Tied #21) stepping it up and this team at 4-0 SU and still in the 2018 CFP championship conversation for now. Next up for 2nd-year Head Coach Kirby Smart (9-7 ATS), Nick Chubb and Georgia is a Week 5 date (Sept. 30) at Rocky Top versus Tennessee (Georgia PK, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook 2017 Games of the Year) in a meeting which saw 65 points last season (TEN 34 GA 31) and 69 the last time these two met in Knoxville (2015, TEN 38 GA 31). Expect less scoring this year and a Georgia victory.
5—Are the Sun Belt’s New Mexico State an Under-the-Radar Money-Maker?
With its SU Win and ATS cover against UTEP at Home at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces in its Week 4 “Battle of I-10” (NM-S -18, BetDSI), 41-14, New Mexico State improved to 2-2 and stayed perfect ATS, moving to 4-0 against the betting number on the year with 5th-year HC Doug Martin (23-26-1 ATS) and the Aggies—like Utah—now 8-2 ATS L10 overall. With QB Tyler Rogers (10 TD Passes), things are really looking up in The City of Crosses and in The Land of Enchantment for Sun Belt Conference member NMS (3-9 SU, 7-5 ATS in 2016), this team is as good as it has been in quite some time but still need to work on the Defense which had allowed 500+ yards 26 time in 48 games coached by Martin heading into this 2017 Regular Season. The Aggies have now W5 ATS and are +13.6 ppg better than the closing Point Spread and will be at SEC side Arkansas (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) for a Non-Conference payday Road game in Week 5 as a brutal stretch of 5 games on the Road in 6 begins in Fayetteville for New Mexico State. Note: Aggies Unders are 4-0.