5 Betworthy Things We Learned in College Football Week 3

Kevin Stott

Sunday, September 17, 2017 8:18 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 17, 2017 8:18 PM UTC

Are BYU, East Carolina Becoming Auto-Fades at College Football Betting Windows? It was an exciting College Football Week 3, with Clemson beating Louisville, Vanderbilt upsetting Kansas State and Sam Darnold and USC beating Texas in OT at the Rose Bowl

1—East Carolina is Definitely Automatic Fade Material Until Further Notice...

After getting out to a nice 17-7 early lead at Home at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, NC against #16 Virginia Tech on on Saturday afternoon in Week 3 play, the American Athletic East Pirates (3-9 SU, 2-9 ATS in 2016) were outscored 57-0 en route to a humbling 64-17 blowout (VT -27, 60½, Intertops), East Carolina’s 7th consecutive ATS Loss and its 12th in the L13 games and a Point Spread market that opened at (VT minus) 27, went as low as 21 and then closed back at (or around) its original 27 with only Hokies money being winning money. Opponents of the Pirates, who have made recent changes to their Defensive Coaching staff, are now averaging 53.4 ppg in the L7 games (64, 56, 34, 37, 66, 55, 45) with the Pirates also having lost 6 TO’s in their 3 games. EC has now lost by 20, 36 and 47 points and have seen Halftime scores of 7-0 (JM), 49-3 (WV) and 23-17 (VT) in this horrible start.


Next up on the East Carolina (0-3 SU/ATS) schedule? A Bye week fortunately for 2nd-year Head Coach Scottie Montgomery (2-12 ATS) and the Pirates who will begin AAC play in Week 5 when they welcome Central Florida to Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville in a series which has seen QB Quinton Flowers (100/1 to win Heisman Trophy, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and the Bulls go a profitable 5-0 ATS the L5 meetings. You know who to take. Best circle it on your betting calendar right now and bet it early. With South Florida having scored 30+ points in an insane 20 straight games now—the longest streak in the nation—you best believe that one gets messy early and the 1H Over and South Florida 1H Half both also seem logical.

2—Tulsa Games Seem To Go Over Quite Easily These Strange Days

After having three seasons with at least 7 Overs (2013, 2015, 2016) and one season with 10 Overs and 2 Unders (2014), Tulsa has started this season with three straight Overs with Saturday’s 105-point, 54-51 loss at Toledo (TOL -7, 74½, BetOnline) going over the highest closing Total by 30½ points as Rockets QB Logan Woodside threw for a school-record 6 TDs in the comeback victory. The Golden Hurricane three Halftime scores: (OK STATE 38 TULSA 17, TULSA 38 ULL 23, TULSA 28 TOL 14). Next up for AAC West member Tulsa (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) in Week 4 is a date with New Mexico on Saturday at Home at HA Chapman Stadium in Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane (42 PS-30 PA in 2016) are 3-0 ATS L3 vs. Los Lobos. The Over is now 35-18 L53 Tulsa games (66%) with Home Overs a very profitable 19-6 since 2013.

3—Nebraska, BYU Are Shells Of Their Former Legendary Selves, Now Fade-worthy

Once upon a time, Big Ten school Nebraska (1,000/1 to win CFP National Championship, 5Dimes) and now Independent BYU (2,000/1 to win CFP National Championship, BookMaker) had virtually unbeatable College Football teams, with players like Johnny Rodgers, Dave Rimington and Jim McMahon with which to work. Now the Cornhuskers and Cougars are both really struggling, with linemakers still over-rating these two once powerful programs. In Week 3 on Saturday, Nebraska lost 14-10 to Northern Illinois in Lincoln (NEB -10½, 56, BookMaker) as the MAC side Huskies (3-0 ATS) won outright as +350 underdogs (5Dimes). The SU and ATS Losses dropped Nebraska to 1-2 SU and ATS after the Cornhuskers went 6-5-2 ATS last year. BYU lost its third consecutive game SU and 4th in a row ATS, falling to #9 Wisconsin, 40-6 (WIS -14, BookMaker). The Cougars have averaged 5.1 Yards Per Play, but have only scored 3 TDs in 4 games—2 of them in Week 1 against FCS side Portland State at Home in Provo, although BYU has honestly played one of the toughest Schedules in the nation so far, having to face LSU, underrated rival Utah and the Badgers back-to-back-to-back from Weeks 1-3. Combined, Nebraska and BYU are 1-7 ATS and have gone 1-10 ATS in their L11 going back to last season and including Bowl games the Huskers and Cougars played in. Maybe the time has come to fade them both and to start contemplating BYU Unders.

4—Louisville QB and 2016 Heisman Trophy Winner Lamar Jackson Ain’t All That (And A Bag Of Chips)

Louisville (13/1 to win CFP National Championship, 5Dimes) was humbled by Clemson at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium in Louisville under the prime time lights on Saturday night in Week 3, 47-21 (CLEM -3, 61, YouWager) with Tigers QB Kelly Bryant outplaying the #14 Cardinals much-hyped signal caller Lamar Jackson (362.7 ypg). Louisville (55/1 to win NCAA Championship, BookMaker) was averaging 7.6 ypp so far this season with Jackson running the Offense while #3 Clemson (15/1 to win NCAA Championship, 5Dimes) was averaging 6.5 ypp under Bryant who has only started three games in College, waiting behind Deshaun Watson. Bryant went 22-for-32 for 316 yards and a TD while Jackson was 21-for-43 for 317 yards passing with 3 TDs and an INT. Jackson rushed for 64 yards on 17 carries while Bryant carried the football 18 times for 26 yards a had 2 TDs in the big win for the Tigers who should now expect to be part of the conversation in the College Football Playoff.


Clemson has now W19 straight games before November since 2015. Louisville is 1-2 ATS to start the Regular Season, struggling with Purdue as unwarranted 25½-point Week 1 Favorites (LOU 35 PURD 28), winning by 12 (and covering by a ½ point) as 12-point chalks at North Carolina in Week 2 (LOU 47 N CAR 35) before being throttled by Clemson at Home this past weekend in Week 3. The Cardinals are now 1-6 ATS their L7 after losing their last four against the betting number last season.

5—Teams From the State of Oklahoma Can Score Points Sleeping, Also Win You Some Money

The three main FBS schools from the state of Oklahoma, #2 Oklahoma (17/1 to win CFP National Championship, BetDSI), #9 Oklahoma State (24/1 to win CFP National Championship, 5Dimes) and Tulsa (1,250/1 to win CFP National Championship, 5Dimes) all rank in the Top 10 in scoring Offense with QB Mason Rudolph (12/1 to win Heisman Trophy, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and the Cowboys currently #2 in the nation at 54.0 ppg (C-FLA is #1 with 61.0 ppg), the Sooners at #7 (47.7 ppg) with the Golden Hurricane at #10 (47.0). On Saturday, Baker Mayfield (5/1 to win Heisman Trophy, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and the Sooners extended their nation-leading Win streak to 12, thrashing Tulane, 56-14, covering ATS as big 33½-point chalks (BetOnline) while the boys from Stillwater did a number on Pitt in the Steel City, routing the Panthers, 59-21 as WR James Washington (60/1 to win Heisman Trophy, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) had 9 Receptions for 256 yards and 2 TD in the win with Rudolph (46/26, 540 yards, 2 TDs) and RB Rennie Childs (10 rushes, 101 yards, 4 TDs) also having monster games against the Panthers.

Oklahoma (+12.5 ppg ATS), Oklahoma State (+17.3 ppg ATS) and Tulsa (-0.5 ppg ATS) are all clicking on all cylinders on Offense and are off to combined 8-1 ATS starts with the only Loss to the betting number coming when the Cowboys and Golden Hurricane met in Week 1 in Stillwater, with Oklahoma State winning 59-24 (OK ST -19½, 70½) in a game which ended an 11-game straight run of Tulsa scoring 30+ points on Offense. Sooner State slingers Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Tulsa have also been good to backers at the betting windows with Mark Andrews (60/1 to win Heisman Trophy, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and the Sooners now having W7 straight ATS, the Cowboys 4 straight ATS with Tulsa (20-8 ATS L28 in Conference when Scoring 30+ Points) going 9-2 ATS its LL11 with that one aforementioned game against Oklahoma State—the only team in FBS history with a 3,000-yard QB, two 1,000-yard RBs and two 1,000-yard WRs in 2016—having to end in an ATS for one of the two. Next up for the trio, a trip to Waco to play Baylor in a Big 12 matchup Week 4, Okie tate hosts TCU (OK STATE 4-1 ATS L5 vs. Horned Frogs) while Tulsa welcomes MWC side New Mexico (TULSA 3-0, ATS L3) to T-Town for a Non-Conference date.


NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 4 EARLY PICKS: Oklahoma State -9½ over TCU, Oklahoma -14 over Baylor (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, 2017 Games of the Year)


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