College Football Week 7 was not a particularly good one for #8 Washington State, #10 Auburn, defending national champions and #2 Clemson or #25 Navy while Louisville, Central Michigan and Tennessee also lost SU and ATS and have all proven to be good teams to bet against on the collegiate gridiron.
Georgia State Wins Outright as Underdog at UL Monroe in Week 7, Now 21-7 ATS L28 Road
Let’s look at five things we saw which became a little more noteworthy from a gambling perspective this past October weekend and offer up what looks like the best early pick from this quintet with Troy Unders a perfect 6-0 to start this season and the Trojans at Georgia State in Sun Belt Conference play in Week 8.
1—Troy Unders 6-0 to Start Season, Under is Now 9-0 the Last 9 Trojans Regular Season Games
Sun Belt Conference school Troy (4-2 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) has opened the 2017 NCAA Football Regular Season with 6 straight Unders (three at Home, three on the Road) after Third-year Head Coach Neal Brown (13-15-1 ATS) and the Trojans played three consecutive Unders to end last Regular Season—Troy’s Bowl (Dollar General) game with Ohio went Over by 1½ in a 28-23 Troy win (TROY -4½, 51)—meaning the Trojans have played 9 straight Unders now after the Trojans were upset as 19-point Favorites by South Alabama at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama, 19-8 (S ALA +450 M/L, YouWager) in the Week 7 lid-lifter on Thursday night in a game which saw skinny 7-, 2-, 7- and 11-point quarters and a complete dump of a performance by the hosts after knocking off SEC side LSU a week earlier in Baton Rouge. Go figure. Come to think of it, best not “go figure.” Next up on the Troy schedule? A Week 8 date at Georgia State (3-1 Unders) at Georgia State Stadium (AT) in Atlanta in game which saw Troy win 31-21 in Alabama last season and also go Under the closing 55 Total, despite a 46-point 2nd Half (Troy led 6-0 at Halftime). And with 9 of L11 Regular Season Road games the Trojans have played going Under, looking at the Total in that Sun Belt Conference game seems wise.
2—Dog Breath: Tennessee Has Definitely Become Weekly Fade Material, Vols Fall to 3-10-2 L15 ATS
After losing to South Carolina, 15-9 in SEC play on Saturday at Home at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville in Week 7 (TENN -2½), Tennessee (3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS) have become an auto-fade team and are now a money-burning 3-10-2 ATS their L15 lined games (20%) overall. Fifth-year Head Coach Butch Jones (24-28-1 ATS) and the Volunteers are 4-11 ATS their L15 Regular Season games and head to Bryant-Denny Stadium (Grass) in Tuscaloosa this coming Saturday to face—hide the women and children please—#1 Alabama in Week 8 to get made into some kind of pumpkin pie or pork paella dish or something (TENN 2-7 ATS L9 vs ALA). The Volunteers—who started redshirt Freshman Jarrett Guarantano at QB against the Gamecocks—have not scored a TD in 10 quarters now dating back to the 2nd Quarter of their Week 5 win against UMass and after the Loss to South Carolina, ESPN300 RB Lyn-J Dixon (#168 Overall Prospect), who had committed to Tennessee on June 24, said via Twitter that he is re-opening his recruitment. Ruh-roh.
3—Broken Chips: Central Michigan Drops to 4-13 ATS L17 After Home Loss to Toledo in Week 7 in MAC Action
When the walls come tumblin’ down. Central Michigan (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) were 9-point Underdogs (-117, BetOnline) vs. Toledo on Homecoming on Saturday in Week 7 and the Chippewas lost, 30-10, meaning CMU is now an anemic 4-13 ATS the L17 (23.5%) with 3rd-year Head Coach John Bonamego (14-16 ATS) off to an 0-3 ATS start at Home at Kelly/Shorts Stadium (FieldTurf) in Mt. Pleasant, Michigan, although the Chips have gone 12-5 SU and a profitable 13-4 ATS from Week 6 on out the L5 seasons. The MAC Conference schedule sees Central Michigan heading to Muncie, Indiana and Ball State (2-4 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) this Saturday in Week 8 (CMU 0-3 ATS L3) as the visitors will look for their first Road Conference ATS cover since a midseason game against Northern Illinois at DeKalb in 2016. Fade Central Michigan.
4—Louisville Fade-Able 1-10 ATS L11 After Cards SU Loss as 19-Point Home Fave vs. Boston College in ACC Play
When you lose SU to Boston College (+725 Moneyline, 5Dimes) at Home as Louisville did on Saturday in Week 7 as huge 19-point favorites, then you know you have some issues son and 7th-year Head Coach Bobby Petrino (47-39-1 ATS) really do after falling to the Eagles, 45-42 at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium in Louisville in Week 7 play on Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals are now 1-10 ATS their L11 and Louisville has also now L2 in a row SU after falling at NC State in ACC play in Week 6. Next up for 2016 Heisman Trophy-winner Lamar Jackson and Louisville in Week 8 is a Road date at Doak Campbell Stadium (Grass) in Tallahassee with Florida State (2-3 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) and a game the Cardinals (4-3 SU, 1-6 ATS) will need to find a way to win to avoid suddenly falling to the .500 mark (LOU 5-2 ATS L7 vs FSU).
5—Georgia State Moves to Profitable 21-6 ATS L27 Road After Outright Win as Underdog at UL Monroe on Saturday
With its 47-27 upset win as a Road underdog (GSU +145 M/L, BetOnline) over UL Monroe at JPS Field at Malone Stadium in Monroe, Louisiana on Saturday night in Week 7 Sun Belt Conference play, Georgia State (2-2 SU/ATS) improved to a stellar 21-6 ATS the L27 on the Road (77.7%) and may be the best-hidden gem Trend we learned this week. The next two games up on the schedule for 1st-year Head Coach Sean Elliott (2-2 ATS) and the Panthers are both at Home (Week 8 vs Troy, Week 9 vs South Alabama), so the next chance to back Georgia State (7-1 ATS L8 Conference Road) as a visitor will come in Week 10 at Georgia Southern and the following weekend in Week 11 at Texas State. The Panthers last Loss ATS as a Road team actually came this season in Week 3 in Non-Conference action at State College with Big Ten powers Penn State thumping Georgia State, 56-0, covering ATS as big 37-point Home chalks.NCAAF WEEK 8 EARLY PICK: Troy-Georgia State Under, Saturday, Oct. 21