5 Bet-worthy Things We Learned in College Football Week 10

sport picks and CFB

Kevin Stott

Sunday, November 5, 2017 12:25 PM GMT

Sunday, Nov. 5, 2017 12:25 PM GMT

Troy State, New Mexico, MTSU and Miami Florida All Proving to Be Under Teams: It was a bad Week 10 for Big Ten powers Ohio State and Penn State, both of whom probably fell by the FBS championship wayside by virtue of losses on Saturday at Iowa and Michigan State respectively as Independent Notre Dame, defending national champions and ACC heavyweights Clemson and Big 12 Bedlam-survivors Oklahoma all made solid cases for being two of the four CFP teams outside of SEC monsters

 1—Troy State-Idaho Stays Under the Total Despite a 21-point 4th Quarter, Troy State Unders Now 11-2 Last 13

On Thursday night, Troy State (7-2 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) defeated Idaho (3-6 SU, 6-3 ATS), 24-21 in Sun Belt Conference Week 10 action in a game which saw the visiting Vandals cover ATS as 17½-point Road Underdogs in a game went Under the posted Total of 50½ (Pinnacle) despite a 21-point 4th Quarter Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama. The Under in Troy State games is now a head-turning 8-1 this 2017 FBS Regular Season (66.9%, Idaho Unders are 7-2) with the first 7 Trojans games going Under before a 38-16 win at Home over Georgia Southern last weekend in Week 9 ended that streak, going Over the Total (49) by just 5 points. Dating back to last season, Troy State Unders are now a profitable 11-3 the L14 games (78.6%). Next up on the schedule for Head Coach Neal Brown (14-16-1 ATS) and the Trojans—a noteworthy 10-0 ATS the L10 after a SU Favorite Loss in Regular Season games—a Week 11 date at Coastal Carolina on Saturday.


2—Air Force Remain, Earthbound Misfits, as Favorites, Fall to a Money-Burning 1-10 ATS Last 11 in Role

Air Force (4-5 SU/ATS) laid a big, fat Flyboys egg on Saturday, losing outright at Home in Colorado Springs and getting shut out as 6½-point Favorites to Army, 21-0 (Army +220 Moneyline, 5Dimes) as the Falcons fell to 1-10 ATS their L11 in the role of a Favorite (9.1%). The Black Knights jumped out to a 14-0 lead at Halftime at Falcon Stadium on Saturday afternoon and were the ones to surprisingly end a 306-game scoring Streak by Air Force in a game in which saw Army (4-22 SU L26 vs. AFA) attempt 0 passes and become just the fourth team in the L10 years to win without attempting a pass. And Air Force might be a slight Favorite in Week 11 when Wyoming visits Colorado Springs on Saturday (Nov. 11) and it’s worth noting two very Betworthy things: 1—Air Force is 0-8 ATS L8 vs. the Cowboys, and 2—The Falcons are 2-12 ATS after playing Army and Navy since 2010. You know what to do.


3—New Mexico Proving to be Under Team, Los Lobos Dictate Pace, Stat Sheet, Still Lose at Home to Utah State

New Mexico Unders are now 8-1 this 2017 Regular Season and a profitable 11-2 L13 dating back to last season (84.6%) after Los Lobos dictated the pace against Utah State, an Over team (8-2 Overs), but still lost in a 24-10 result on Saturday afternoon at University Stadium in Albuquerque in Week 10 MWC action from The Land of Enchantment as the Aggies played their best Defensive game of the year, getting 4 Turnovers and somehow winning by double-digits on the Road despite being outgained (340-243), having almost twice as few First Downs (21-12) and being completely dominated in Time of Possession (39-21) by New Mexico with Utah State showing how big TOs and Field Position are. In Week 11, Head Coach Bob Davie (29-30-1 ATS) and New Mexico (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) head to College Station, Texas to face SEC side Texas A&M (NM 0-2 SU/ATS L2 vs A&M) in a rare November Non-Conference date for Los Lobos that may provide a hard matchup for them to try to control Pace.


4—Middle Tennessee State Also Trending Toward Under After High-Flying, High-Scoring Season in 2016

Middle Tennessee State (4-5 SU/ATS) may also be an Under team now after a convincing but predictable 30-3 Conference USA win against UTEP on Saturday at Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro, Tennessee (50½u -116, JustBet) as the Blue Raiders led 17-0 at Half and kept the Miners from reaching the end zone in the Volunteer State to stay alive in the C-USA race. The Under was the third straight for 12th-year MTSU Head Coach Rick Stockstill (68-68-3 ATS) and his team who played 7 Overs and 1 Under—including a Bowl game vs Hawai’i (Over)—to end the 2016 season. Of note, Road Unders are 4-0 in Blue Raiders games this FBS season and with a Week 11 date at Charlotte and a Week 12 game at Western Kentucky (MTSU 3-1 ATS L4 vs WKU) on the Autumn horizon, looking at those betting those two C-USA Totals Under at Open may be a wise idea.

The Under is a profitable 8-1 this season in MTSU games and worth remembering and like Pitt—Unders 7-1-1 after a crazy 11 straight Panthers Overs and then an Under last season—MTSU looks like a team instantly going from an Over team in 2016 to an Under team in 2017. Rosters change much year-to-year in College Football as do the linemakers and public’s perceptions. MTSU victim and rat-worthy UTEP (0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS) has also skewed heavily to the Under, with Miners Unders going 7-2 now and hitting 4 straight, no big surprise with the Miners working underground with lights on their heads and having the 128th ranked (of 129) Scoring Offense in FBS (Kent State #129, 10.7 ppg), averaging a paltry 11.4 ppg, or just a Touchdown and a Field Goal-and-a-half more than you and your dog have (without even touching or drooling on the pigskin). So? Give your dog the damn ball my man. He just may be able to score. Four legs are better than two, no Bubba? Woof.


5—Miami Florida Another Under-Skewing Side After Defensive Home Win Against ACC Coastal Rivals Virginia Tech

With #3 Ohio State and #7 Penn State both losing and #4 Wisconsin, #5 Notre Dame, #6 Clemson and #8 Oklahoma all winning, #9 Miami Florida almost had to beat #13 Virginia Tech at Home at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens 28-10, on Saturday night, Covering ATS as small 2- to 2½-point Home Underdogs in a huge game with ACC Coastal, ACC and even CFP implications (50, Bovada) and a game which saw the hosts leading the Hokies 14-3 at Halftime (1st Half Total, 24). As a result, Miami Florida Unders are now 7-1 this 2017 Regular Season (87.5%) and a profitable 11-2 the L13 Hurricane games (84.6%) in the oft-overlooked Totals market. Next up on the docket for the Canes, a massive game with Independent and now #4-ranked Notre Dame at Home in Miami in a Week 11 clash which should be more of a Winner-Stays-in-CFP-Conversation affair as opposed to a “Catholics vs. Convicts” (circa 1980s) showdown from the Sunshine State on Saturday (Nov. 11). Still, expect some mud and some blood and the loser of that can't-miss Week 11 game having to wait until next year.


Free Week 11 NCAAF PICKS: Bet-Worthy Trends Predictions is Wyoming over Air Force
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