Texas Vs. Georgia: Sugar Bowl Trends & Betting History

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, December 4, 2018 9:05 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 4, 2018 9:05 PM UTC

No. 5 Georgia opened an 11-point favorite versus No. 15 Texas in the 2019 Sugar Bowl, the Bulldogs looking to close the gap in the 8-5 SU edge the Big 12 holds over the SEC conference. Betting history, trends, and key numbers for the matchup here. 

2019 Sugar Bowl: No. 15 Texas vs. No. 5 Georgia

The 85th Sugar Bowl, the designated destination for the Big 12 and SEC champions, welcome the runner-ups from the conferences No. 15 Texas and No. 5 Georgia this year, as No.1 Alabama and No. 4 Oklahoma earned invites to the College Football Playoffs. It’s the first meeting between the storied programs since the Bulldogs upset the Longhorns 10-9 in the 1984 Cotton Bowl Classic as 7.5-point underdogs, costing Texas a shot at the national title.

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Results Last 20 Years
Season Team Opp Final Line Total Winners ATS
1998 Ohio St. Texas A&M 24-14 -12.5 NA L
1999 Florida St. Virginia Tech 46-29 -5.5 NA W
2000 Miami (FL) Florida 37-20 -7 NA W
2001 LSU Illinois 47-34 -2 NA W
2002 Georgia Florida St. 26-13 -8 NA W
2003 LSU Oklahoma 21-14 7 NA W
2004 Auburn Virginia Tech 16-13 -6 NA L
2005 West Virginia Georgia 38-35 7 NA W
2006 LSU Notre Dame 41-14 -9 55.5 W
2007 Georgia Hawaii 41-10 -9.1 68 W
2008 Utah Alabama 31-17 9 45.5 W
2009 Florida Cincinnati 54-21 -12.5 58 W
2010 Ohio St. Arkansas 31-26 -3.5 56.5 W
2011 Michigan Virginia Tech 23-20 -2.5 51.5 W
2012 Louisville Florida 33-23 14 48 W
2013 Oklahoma Alabama 45-31 16.5 51.5 W
2014 Ohio St. Alabama 42-35 8 59 W
2015 Ole Miss Oklahoma St. 48-20 -8 69.5 W
2016 Oklahoma Auburn 35-19 -3 64.5 W
2017 Alabama Clemson 24-6 -3 46.5 W

Sugar Bowl Key Betting Numbers (Since 1999 Unless Noted)

Average Victory Margin: 14.4
Average Line: -1.5
Favorite ATS: 12-8
Average Total: 56.2 (since 2006)
O/U Record: 6-6 (since 2006)
O/U Margin: 1.3
Largest Underdog Upset: Oklahoma (+16.5) 45, Alabama 31 (2014)
Largest Spread: Alabama, -16.5 (2014)
Largest Rout: Florida (-12.5) 54, Cincinnati 21 (2010)

Sugar Bowl Summary & Trends
  • Game winners are 18-2 ATS during the last two decades.
  • Only two of the last 20 winners sustained a loss in their previous contest. Both Texas and Georgia fell in their respective conference championships last time out.
  • Sugar Bowl losers average 20.7 points in defeat.
  • Nine of the last 12 contests have been finished with a double-digit point differential.
Conference H2H: Big 12 vs. SEC

Since 1980, the SEC has a big edge over the Big 12 in bowl games, going 31-19 SU and 32-18 ATS (64.0 percent). The Big 12 kicks off a -0.6 average favorite. The SEC exceeds expectations kicking off chalk or a short-priced underdog of less than a field goal in this span, compiling an astonishing 22-6 ATS (78.6 percent) record. The division owns a 5.1 average ATS margin under these market conditions. Oddsmakers opened Georgia as 11-point favorite versus Texas.

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Which team will attempt to hoist this ~60lb. trophy? @TexasFootball @FootballUGA #SugarBowl pic.twitter.com/WCK7qZlIOv

— Allstate Sugar Bowl (@SugarBowlNola) 2 de dezembro de 2018
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No. 15 Texas Longhorns (9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS)

  • Seasons: 117
  • Bowl Record: 28-24-2 SU, 10-18 ATS (since 1980)
  • Coach, Bowl Record: Tom Herman (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS

Head coach Tom Herman has dominated in his pair of bowl games. In 2015, Herman led Houston to a 38-24 victory over Florida State as a touchdown underdog in the Peach Bowl, while cruising 33-16 with Texas over Missouri in last year’s Texas Bowl. The Longhorns went off a 2-point pup in the latter contest. Overall, Herman is covering the spread (4.5) by 20.0 points per game.

Texas vs. SEC (Since 1980)

  • SU Record: 9-10
  • Average Margin: 0.6
  • ATS Record: 8-11
  • Average Line: -4.2

The 11-point spread in the 2019 Sugar Bowl is the second longest line against an SEC opponent in the modern era. Texas slumped to a 31-3 defeat at Auburn as a 13-point underdog in 1987, and mustered just a touchdown in a 31-7 loss to Arkansas in the 2014 Texas Bowl spotted 6.5 points in the next closest number.

No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS)

  • Seasons: 115
  • Bowl Record: 31-20-3 SU, 21-13-1 ATS (since 1980)
  • Coach, Bowl Record: Kirby Smart, (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS)

Defensive guru Kirby Smart has seen the “over” cash in 10 of 12 bowl games including his time as coordinator at Alabama. Opponents average 24.8 points.

Georgia vs. Big 12

  • SU Record: 6-2
  • Average Margin: 5.9
  • ATS Record: 5-3
  • Average Line: -4.8

In three games on neutral soil, the Bulldogs post 43.0 points per game against Big 12 foes. This includes last year’s 54-48 double-overtime win over Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl. The Bulldogs put up 44 points in regulation time.

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