LSU Vs. UCF: Fiesta Bowl Trends & Betting History

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, December 4, 2018 1:34 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 4, 2018 1:34 PM UTC

Can No. 8 Central Florida pull off the upset over game favorite No. 11 LSU in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl? The Knights have a history. Read more about it here. 

Fiesta Bowl Trends & Betting History

The 48th edition of the Fiesta Bowl pits No.11 LSU vs. No. 8 Central Florida. The Tigers opened 8-point favorites. It’s the first time hosting an SEC program since Tennessee in 1999 and 2000 in the Bowl Championship Series. The Knights, meanwhile, return for the first time since shocking Baylor 52-42 as 17-point underdogs in 2014, possibly the largest upset in Fiesta Bowl history.

One of the New Year’s Six, the Fiesta Bowl hosts a College Football Playoff national semifinal every three years, slated again with the Peach Bowl for next year.

Fiesta Bowl: No. 11 LSU vs. No. 8 Central Florida

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Results Last 20 Years

Season Team Opp Final Line Total Winners SU Winners ATS
1998 Tennessee Florida St. 23-16 5.5 NA W W
1999 Nebraska Tennessee 31-21 -4 NA W W
2000 Oregon St. Notre Dame 41-9 -3.5 NA W W
2001 Oregon Colorado 38-16 3 NA W W
2002 Ohio St. Miami (FL) 31-24 11 NA W W
2003 Ohio St. Kansas St. 35-28 7 NA W W
2004 Utah Pitt 35-7 -15 NA W W
2005 Ohio St. Notre Dame 34-20 -5 NA W W
2006 Boise St. Oklahoma 43-42 7.5 50.5 W W
2007 West Virginia Oklahoma 48-28 7 63.5 W W
2008 Texas Ohio St. 24-21 -8.5 52 W L
2009 Boise St. TCU 17-10 7 53 W W
2010 Oklahoma UConn 48-20 -15.5 55 W W
2011 Oklahoma St. Stanford 41-38 -4 74 W L
2012 Oregon Kansas St. 35-17 -8.5 74.5 W W
2013 Central Florida Baylor 52-42 17 73 W W
2014 Boise St. Arizona 38-30 3 67.5 W W
2015 Ohio St. Notre Dame 44-28 -5 57.5 W W
2016 Clemson Ohio St. 31-0 1 56.5 W W
2017 Penn St. Washington 35-28 -3 55 W W

Fiesta Bowl Key Betting Numbers (Since 1999)

  • Average Points Differential: 13.9
  • Average Line: -0.1
  • Favorite ATS: 8-12
  • Average Total: 61.0 (since 2006)
  • O/U Record: 8-4
  • O/U Margin: 2.3
  • Largest Underdog Upset: Central Florida (+17) 52, Baylor 42 (2014)
  • Largest Spread: Baylor -17 (2014)
  • Largest Rout: Oregon State (-3.5) 41, Notre Dame 9 (2001)
Fiesta Bowl Summary & Trends

Since 1999, the game winner is 18-2 ATS overall.

A single-digit seed from the AP Top 25 poll entering the contest has won 17 of the last 20 meetings. A double-digit seed has played in eight different events in this span.

Six of the 10 underdog winners since 1999 have kicked off catching a touchdown or more on the college football oddsboard.

Conference H2H: SEC vs. AAC

The SEC is 16-7 SU and 14-9 ATS in 23 meetings against the American Athletic Conference, going off a -9.6 average favorite. The SEC wins by 9.7 points per game. More than half (13) of the contests have been played at SEC venues.

In four contests against ranked opponents, the SEC is winless and 1-3 ATS overall. Only one went off a ranked matchup, UCF’s 34-27 win over Auburn in last year’s Peach Bowl. The SEC, in fact, is 13-6 ATS as the betting favorite.

The ‘under’ is 15-7-1 (68.2 percent) overall. AAC teams are scoring 21.0 points per game to 30.8 for the SEC.

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The matchup is set. We’re ready for @lsufootball and @UCF_Football in the desert. Are you? #GeauxTigers | #ChargeOn | #GreatnessAwaits pic.twitter.com/Oa08RriYux

— Fiesta Bowl (@Fiesta_Bowl) 3 de dezembro de 2018
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LSU Tigers (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

  • Seasons: 114
  • Bowl Record: 25-23-1 SU, 14-13 ATS (since 1980)
  • Coach, Bowl Record: Ed Orgeron, (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)

Orgeron has led LSU to bowl games the last two years, topping Louisville 29-9 as a 3-point favorite in the 2016 Citrus Bowl, while dropping a 21-17 decision to Notre Dame as 2-point chalk in last year’s event. The Tigers have moved the ball well in each, averaging 385 yards per game.

LSU vs. AAC

  • SU Record: 0-0
  • Average Margin: N/A
  • ATS Record: N/A
  • Average Line: N/A

This is LSU’s first ever matchup against an AAC opponent.

Central Florida (12-0 SU, 8-3-1 ATS)

  • Seasons: 23
  • Bowl Record: 4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS
  • Coach, Bowl Record: Josh Heupel

This is Heupel’s first year as a collegiate head coach. The Knights have covered the spread in each of their four bowl games spotted greater than a field goal, winning three outright.

Central Florida vs. SEC

  • SU Record: 3-17
  • Average Margin: -10.7
  • ATS Record: 10-9
  • Average Line: 12.7

Despite winning only three of 20 against SEC competition, the Knights have stayed within a touchdown on the scoreboard in 12 overall. The ‘under’ is 9-0-1 in the last 10 meetings, UCF limping to just 14.7 points per game. It failed to reach its projected team total in all but two.

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