LSU Vs. UCF: Fiesta Bowl Trends & Betting History

Tuesday, December 4, 2018 1:34 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 4, 2018 1:34 PM UTC

Can No. 8 Central Florida pull off the upset over game favorite No. 11 LSU in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl? The Knights have a history. Read more about it here. 

<h2>Fiesta Bowl Trends &amp; Betting History</h2><p>The 48th edition of the Fiesta Bowl pits No.11 LSU vs. No. 8 Central Florida. The Tigers opened 8-point favorites. It’s the first time hosting an SEC program since Tennessee in 1999 and 2000 in the Bowl Championship Series. The Knights, meanwhile, return for the first time since shocking Baylor 52-42 as 17-point underdogs in 2014, possibly the largest upset in Fiesta Bowl history.</p><p>One of the New Year’s Six, the Fiesta Bowl hosts a College Football Playoff national semifinal every three years, slated again with the Peach Bowl for next year.</p><h2>Fiesta Bowl: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/lsu-tigers-vs-ucf-knights-3690889/odds/" target="_blank" title="Check LSU - UCF Odds">No. 11 LSU vs. No. 8 Central Florida</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3690889, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,169,238,43], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p><strong>Results Last 20 Years</strong></p><table border="1" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" style="width:100%;"> <tbody> <tr> <th>Season</th> <th>Team</th> <th>Opp</th> <th>Final</th> <th>Line</th> <th>Total</th> <th>Winners SU</th> <th>Winners ATS</th> </tr> <tr> <td>1998</td> <td>Tennessee</td> <td>Florida St.</td> <td>23-16</td> <td>5.5</td> <td>NA</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>1999</td> <td>Nebraska</td> <td>Tennessee</td> <td>31-21</td> <td>-4</td> <td>NA</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2000</td> <td>Oregon St.</td> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td>41-9</td> <td>-3.5</td> <td>NA</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2001</td> <td>Oregon</td> <td>Colorado</td> <td>38-16</td> <td>3</td> <td>NA</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2002</td> <td>Ohio St.</td> <td>Miami (FL)</td> <td>31-24</td> <td>11</td> <td>NA</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2003</td> <td>Ohio St.</td> <td>Kansas St.</td> <td>35-28</td> <td>7</td> <td>NA</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2004</td> <td>Utah</td> <td>Pitt</td> <td>35-7</td> <td>-15</td> <td>NA</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2005</td> <td>Ohio St.</td> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td>34-20</td> <td>-5</td> <td>NA</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2006</td> <td>Boise St.</td> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>43-42</td> <td>7.5</td> <td>50.5</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007</td> <td>West Virginia</td> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>48-28</td> <td>7</td> <td>63.5</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2008</td> <td>Texas</td> <td>Ohio St.</td> <td>24-21</td> <td>-8.5</td> <td>52</td> <td>W</td> <td>L</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2009</td> <td>Boise St.</td> <td>TCU</td> <td>17-10</td> <td>7</td> <td>53</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2010</td> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>UConn</td> <td>48-20</td> <td>-15.5</td> <td>55</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2011</td> <td>Oklahoma St.</td> <td>Stanford</td> <td>41-38</td> <td>-4</td> <td>74</td> <td>W</td> <td>L</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2012</td> <td>Oregon</td> <td>Kansas St.</td> <td>35-17</td> <td>-8.5</td> <td>74.5</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2013</td> <td>Central Florida</td> <td>Baylor</td> <td>52-42</td> <td>17</td> <td>73</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2014</td> <td>Boise St.</td> <td>Arizona</td> <td>38-30</td> <td>3</td> <td>67.5</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2015</td> <td>Ohio St.</td> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td>44-28</td> <td>-5</td> <td>57.5</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2016</td> <td>Clemson</td> <td>Ohio St.</td> <td>31-0</td> <td>1</td> <td>56.5</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2017</td> <td>Penn St.</td> <td>Washington</td> <td>35-28</td> <td>-3</td> <td>55</td> <td>W</td> <td>W</td> </tr> </tbody></table><p> </p><p><strong>Fiesta Bowl Key Betting Numbers (Since 1999)</strong></p><ul> <li>Average Points Differential: 13.9</li> <li>Average Line: -0.1</li> <li>Favorite ATS: 8-12</li> <li>Average Total: 61.0 (since 2006)</li> <li>O/U Record: 8-4</li> <li>O/U Margin: 2.3</li> <li>Largest Underdog Upset: Central Florida (+17) 52, Baylor 42 (2014)</li> <li>Largest Spread: Baylor -17 (2014)</li> <li>Largest Rout: Oregon State (-3.5) 41, Notre Dame 9 (2001)</li></ul><h2> </h2><h2>Fiesta Bowl Summary &amp; Trends</h2><p>Since 1999, the game winner is 18-2 ATS overall.</p><p>A single-digit seed from the AP Top 25 poll entering the contest has won 17 of the last 20 meetings. A double-digit seed has played in eight different events in this span.</p><p>Six of the 10 underdog winners since 1999 have kicked off catching a touchdown or more on the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football" target="_blank" title="NCAAF Odds Board">college football oddsboard</a>.</p><h2>Conference H2H: SEC vs. AAC</h2><p>The SEC is 16-7 SU and 14-9 ATS in 23 meetings against the American Athletic Conference, going off a -9.6 average favorite. The SEC wins by 9.7 points per game. More than half (13) of the contests have been played at SEC venues.</p><p>In four contests against ranked opponents, the SEC is winless and 1-3 ATS overall. Only one went off a ranked matchup, UCF’s 34-27 win over Auburn in last year’s Peach Bowl. The SEC, in fact, is 13-6 ATS as the betting favorite.</p><p>The ‘under’ is 15-7-1 (68.2 percent) overall. AAC teams are scoring 21.0 points per game to 30.8 for the SEC.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"pt\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;The matchup is set. We’re ready for &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/LSUfootball?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@lsufootball&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/UCF_Football?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@UCF_Football&lt;/a&gt; in the desert. Are you? &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/GeauxTigers?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#GeauxTigers&lt;/a&gt; | &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/ChargeOn?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#ChargeOn&lt;/a&gt; | &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/GreatnessAwaits?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#GreatnessAwaits&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/Oa08RriYux\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/Oa08RriYux&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Fiesta Bowl (@Fiesta_Bowl) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/Fiesta_Bowl/status/1069382164888735744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;3 de dezembro de 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><p><strong>LSU Tigers (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)</strong></p><ul> <li>Seasons: 114</li> <li>Bowl Record: 25-23-1 SU, 14-13 ATS (since 1980)</li> <li>Coach, Bowl Record: Ed Orgeron, (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)</li></ul><p><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/" target="_blank" title="NCAAF Picks &amp; Predictions">Orgeron has led LSU to bowl games the last two years</a>, topping Louisville 29-9 as a 3-point favorite in the 2016 Citrus Bowl, while dropping a 21-17 decision to Notre Dame as 2-point chalk in last year’s event. The Tigers have moved the ball well in each, averaging 385 yards per game.</p><p><strong>LSU vs. AAC</strong></p><ul> <li>SU Record: 0-0</li> <li>Average Margin: N/A</li> <li>ATS Record: N/A</li> <li>Average Line: N/A</li></ul><p>This is LSU’s first ever matchup against an AAC opponent.</p><p><strong>Central Florida (12-0 SU, 8-3-1 ATS)</strong></p><ul> <li>Seasons: 23</li> <li>Bowl Record: 4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS</li> <li>Coach, Bowl Record: Josh Heupel</li></ul><p>This is Heupel’s first year as a collegiate head coach. The Knights have covered the spread in each of their four bowl games spotted greater than a field goal, winning three outright.</p><p><strong>Central Florida vs. SEC</strong></p><ul> <li>SU Record: 3-17</li> <li>Average Margin: -10.7</li> <li>ATS Record: 10-9</li> <li>Average Line: 12.7</li></ul><p>Despite winning only three of 20 against SEC competition, the Knights have stayed within a touchdown on the scoreboard in 12 overall. The ‘under’ is 9-0-1 in the last 10 meetings, UCF limping to just 14.7 points per game. It failed to reach its projected team total in all but two.</p><h2 style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/fiesta-bowl-college-football-pick-lsu-ucf-preview/87735">Check Out SBR's Fiesta Bowl Preview</a></h2>
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