Mississippi State Vs. Iowa: Outback Bowl Trends & Betting History

Saturday, December 22, 2018 2:43 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 22, 2018 2:43 PM UTC

Iowa makes its record-tying sixth appearance in the 2018 Outback Bowl, a 7-point underdog versus No. 18 Mississippi State. Get key numbers, past betting results, and more here for your handicapping pleasure. 

2019 Outback Bowl: Iowa vs. No. 18 Mississippi State

Since 1995, the Outback Bowl has pitted one of the longest inter-sectional conference matchups in the college football postseason between the SEC and Big Ten. The SEC has won two-thirds (15-7 SU) of the meetings since. In 2018, No. 18 Mississippi State looks to continue its conference dominance over Iowa.

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Outback Bowl Results Last 20 Years
Season Winner Loser Final Line Total Winner ATS O/U
1998 Penn St. Kentucky 26-14 -7 N/A W N/A
1999 Georgia Purdue 28-25 5.5 N/A W N/A
2000 S. Carolina Ohio St. 24-7 7 N/A W N/A
2001 S. Carolina Ohio St. 31-28 -1 N/A W N/A
2002 Michigan Florida 38-30 -1 N/A W N/A
2003 Iowa Florida 37-17 3.5 N/A W N/A
2004 Georgia Wisconsin 24-21 -8 N/A L N/A
2005 Florida Iowa 31-24 1 N/A W N/A
2006 Penn St. Tennessee 20-10 4 41 W U
2007 Tennessee Wisconsin 21-17 -2.5 58.5 W U
2008 Iowa S. Carolina 31-10 -4 42 W U
2009 Auburn Northwestern 38-35 -8 55 L O
2010 Florida Penn St. 37-24 -7 48 W O
2011 Michigan St. Georgia 33-30 2.5 48.5 W O
2012 S. Carolina Michigan 33-28 -5 48 P O
2013 LSU Iowa 21-14 -7.5 49 L U
2014 Wisconsin Auburn 34-31 6 65 W P
2015 Tennessee Northwestern 45-6 -9.5 48.5 W O
2016 Florida Iowa 30-3 -2.5 40.5 W U
2017 S. Carolina Michigan 26-19 8 43 W O

Outback Bowl Key Betting Numbers (Since 1998)

Average Victory Margin: 10.7
Average Line: -1.3
Favorite ATS: 8-11-1
Average Total: 48.9 (since 2006)
O/U Record: 6-5-1 (since 2006)
O/U Margin: 0.7
Largest Underdog Upset: South Carolina (+8) 26, Michigan 19 (2018)
Largest Spread: Tennessee -9 (2016)
Largest Rout: Tennessee 45, Northwestern 6 (2016)

Outback Bowl Summary & Trends
  • The game winner is 16-3-1 ATS, covering a -1.3 average spread by 9.4 points per game.
  • Teams gifting fewer turnovers for the year have won two-thirds of the last 15 Outback Bowls (10-5 SU). In 2018, Mississippi State allows 0.8 giveaways, as opposed to 1.3 for Iowa.
  • The SEC is 15-7 in the last 22 matchups against the Big Ten.
Conference H2H: SEC vs, Big Ten

Since 1980, The SEC is 75-45-1 SU (62.5 percent) and 66-52-3 ATS (55.9 percent) in head-to-head clashes against the Big Ten, going off a -2.5 average favorite. Most in this span occur in the postseason, where the SEC is 51-29 SU (63.8 percent) and 45-34-1 ATS (57.0 percent) in bowl games. The SEC is particularly dominant, and often heavier chalk, when owning a higher average margin of victory then its Big Ten opponent, going 32-11 SU (74.4 percent) and 26-16-1 ATS (61.9 percent) overall. In the last decade, the SEC is 15-1 SU and 12-3-1 ATS in this situation.

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Join us for the 2019 Outback Bowl as @HawkeyeFootball take on @HailStateFB on New Year's Day! Get your tickets now for #FootballinParadise! 👉 https://t.co/7yuJxScDX4 🌴🏈☀️#OutbackBowl #TampaBayTreasure pic.twitter.com/nD5gaw2iuo

— Outback Bowl (@outbackbowl) 12 de dezembro de 2018
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Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4 SU, 8-3-1 ATS)

Seasons: 120
Bowl Record: 15-15-1 SU, 13-16 ATS (since 1980)
Coach, Bowl Record: Kirk Ferentz (7-8 SU, 9-6 ATS)

Longtime Hawkeyes leader Kirk Ferentz is 2-5 SU and 4-3 ATS catching 4 points or more on the college football oddsboard in bowl games. Iowa tends to score few points under these betting conditions, averaging 19.9 points. The :under” is 5-2 overall.

Iowa vs. SEC (Since 1980)

SU Record: 4-6
Average Margin: -1.5
ATS Record: 5-5
Average Line: 2.1

Since 1980, all but one of Iowa’s 10 SEC matchups has occurred in the postseason. The Hawkeyes are 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS in bowl games, going off a 2.6 average underdog.

No. 18 Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4 SU, 8-3-1 ATS)

Seasons: 114
Bowl Record: 13-8 SU, 7-7 ATS (since 1980)
Coach, Bowl Record: Joe Moorhead (0-0)

This is Mississippi State head coach Joe Moorhead’s first season in charge of an FBS program. His collegiate postseason experience includes leading Fordham to the FCS playoffs in each year during the 2013-15 seasons, twice reaching the second round.

Mississippi State vs. Big Ten (Since 1980)

SU Record: 2-1
Average Margin: 10.3
ATS Record: 1-1-1

The Bulldogs routed Michigan 52-14 as 4.5-point favorites in the 2011 Gator Bowl, yet sustained a 34-20 defeat to Northwestern as 1.5-point underdogs in the 2013 Gator Bowl in two Big Ten bowl matchups since 1980.

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