No. 1 Alabama Vs. No. 4 Oklahoma: Orange Bowl Betting History, Trends

orange bowl

Jay Pryce

Monday, December 3, 2018 3:13 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 3, 2018 3:13 PM UTC

Top-ranked Alabama opens a two-touchdown favorite in the 2018 Orange Bowl, one of two national semifinals for the College Football Playoffs.

Orange Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma

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The Orange Bowl is tied as the second oldest bowl game (Sun, Sugar) in the nation (1935) behind the Rose Bowl (1902). The contest currently is played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Associated with the Big Eight and Big East in prior conference tie-ins, it has hosted the ACC champion since 2006, unless it is hosting a national College Football Playoff semifinal like it is in 2018.

Results Last 20 Years
Season Winning Team Losing Team Final Line Total SU Winner ATS
1998 Florida Syracuse 31-10 -6.5 NA W W
1999 Michigan Alabama 35-34 1 NA W W
2000 Oklahoma Florida St. 13-2 10 NA W W
2001 Florida Maryland 56-23 -14 NA W W
2002 USC Iowa 38-17 -4.5 NA W W
2003 Miami (FL) Florida St. 16-14 -1.5 NA W W
2004 USC Oklahoma 55-19 -1 NA W W
2005 Penn St. Florida St. 26-23 -9 NA W L
2006 Louisville Wake Forest 24-13 -10 52.5 W W
2007 Kansas Va. Tech 24-21 3 51 W W
2008 Va. Tech Cincinnati 20-7 2.5 42 W W
2009 Iowa Ga. Tech 24-14 5 50.5 W W
2010 Stanford Va. Tech 40-12 -3.5 58.5 W W
2011 West Va. Clemson 70-33 2.5 63 W W
2012 Florida St. N. Illinois 31-10 -14 58.5 W W
2013 Clemson Ohio St. 40-35 2 71 W W
2014 Ga. Tech Mississippi St. 49-34 7 60 W W
2015 Clemson Oklahoma 37-17 3.5 63.5 W W
2016 Florida St. Michigan 33-32 6.5 53 W W
2017 Wisconsin Miami (FL) 34-24 -6.5 45 W W

Orange Bowl Key Betting Numbers (Since 1999)

Average Points Differential: 15.1
Average Line: -1.4
Favorite ATS: 9-11
Average Total: 55.7 (since 2006)
O/U Record: 5-7
O/U Margin: 0.8
Largest Underdog Upset: Oklahoma (+10) 13, Florida State 2 (2000)
Largest Spread: Florida (-14) 56, Maryland 23 (2001); Florida State (-14) 31, Northern Illinois 10 (2012)
Largest Rout: West Virginia (+2.5) 70, Clemson 33 (2011)

Orange Bowl Summary & Trends

Straight-up winners have covered the spread in 19 of the last 20 Orange Bowls. Penn State missed out besting a 9-point spread in its 26-23 victory over Florida State in 2005.

Underdogs have won seven of the last 10 outright, covering a 4.1 average line by a whopping 18.6 points per game. Five upsets have come by double digits.

Twelve of the last 16 SU and ATS winners yielded fewer passing yards in their prior contest.

Conference H2H: SEC vs. Big 12

Since 1980, the SEC and Big 12 have squared off 50 times in bowl games. The former is 31-19 SU and 32-18 ATS (64.0 percent), kicking off a 0.6 average underdog. The SEC typically takes care of business when the betting favorite on the college football oddsboard, going 18-5 ATS (78.3 percent) overall. Since 2006, the O/U record is 13-12 with a 59.0 average total.

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#CFBPlayoff Semifinal at the @OrangeBowl.

No. 1 @AlabamaFTBL vs. No. 4 @OU_Football #RollTide // #BoomerSooner pic.twitter.com/is9RT21gPL

— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) December 2, 2018
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No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Seasons: 115
Bowl Record: 40-25-3 SU, 17-11 ATS (since 1980)
Coach, Bowl (CFP) Record: Nick Saban, 14-9 SU, 12-11 ATS

Since taking over has head coach of Alabama, the "over" is 10-4 (71.4 percent) when Saban leads the program in postseason play. It is part of a larger 21-7-2 (75.0 percent) trend cashing the "ove"’ when the Crimson Tide kickoff on neutral soil under his leadership. Alabama has surpassed its projected team total in 22 of the 30 contests.

Saban’s teams are synonymous with strong defenses, particularly against the rush. Including stints at Michigan State (1995-1999) and LSU (2000-04) , his units hold opponents to 76.0 rushing yards per contest and a paltry 2.4 yards per carry in bowl games.

Alabama vs. Big 12

SU Record: 6-4
Average Margin: 0.7
ATS Record: 6-4
Average Line: -3.1

Since 2006, the "over" is a perfect 5-0 when ‘Bama faces a Big-12 opponent. The Crimson Tide posts 32.4 points per game. The defense has allowed the opposition to reach their projected team total in each contests, which includes four under Saban.

No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Seasons: 110
Bowl Record: 29-21-1, 12-18 ATS (since 1980)
Coach, Bowl Record: Lincoln Riley

The Sooners have played in 20 straight bowl games. Head coach Lincoln Riley dropped his first in charge in a thrilling 54-48 double-overtime loss versus Georgia in last year’s Rose Bowl. The Sooners went off 3-point underdogs.

Oklahoma vs. SEC

SU Record: 9-5 (since 1980)
Average Margin: 5.4
ATS Record: 6-8
Average Line: -5.0

In eight neutral-site encounters against the SEC since 1980, Oklahoma is just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS. This includes the Sooners’ 16.5-point upset over Alabama in the 2014 Sugar Bowl.

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