If you root for college football upsets, then tune in to the Music City Bowl. Since the inaugural event in 1998, the betting underdog has won nearly half (nine of 20) of the matchups outright. The traditional SEC tie-in has gone off the favorite in six of the stunners. Can the Auburn Tigers, 4-point chalk against the Purdue Boilermakers, take care of business in 2018? Use the following info to help guide your answer.
|2000||W. Virginia||Ole Miss||49-38||3.5||N/A||W||N/A|
|2011||Mississippi St.||Wake Forest||23-17||-6.5||48||L||U|
|2013||Ole Miss||Georgia Tech||25-17||-3||55.5||W||U|
Music City Bowl Key Betting Numbers
Average Victory Margin: 8.4
Average Line: -0.6
Favorite ATS: 8-12
Average Total: 52.3 (since 2006)
O/U Record: 5-7 (since 2006)
O/U Margin: -3.0
Largest Underdog Upset: Kentucky (+10) 28, Clemson 20 (2006)
Largest Spread: Clemson -10 (2006)
Largest Rout: Virginia Tech 38, Alabama 7 (1998)
Music City Bowl Summary & Trends
- The game winner is 17-3 ATS, covering the spread by 7.8 points per game.
- The average final score is a low 48.7 points. The winner posts 28.7 versus 20.2 for the loser.
- Since 2006, two-thirds (8-4) of Music City Bowl SU and ATS winners own a more efficient passing offense entering the event. Purdue posts 8.1 passing yards per attempt versus 7.1 for Auburn.
Conference H2H: Big Ten vs. SEC
Since 1980, the SEC holds commanding 75-45-1 SU (62.5 percent) and 66-52-3 ATS (55.9 percent) records against Big 10 opposition, going off a -2.5 average favorite. The rates hold consistent when factoring bowl and playoff games only, the SEC owning 51-29 SU (63.8 percent) and 45-34-1 ATS (57.0 percent) marks. One has to go back to 2006, in fact, to uncover the last time the Big Ten won more postseason head-to-head matchups. When an SEC team owns more victories on the season headed into a bowl clash, like Auburn (7) does over Purdue (6), it is 22-7 SU (75.9 percent) and 18-10-1 ATS (64.3 percent), winning by a 4.7 average margin.
Purdue Boilermakers (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Bowl Record: 10-8 SU, 7-8 ATS (since 1980)
Coach, Bowl Record: Jeff Brohm (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Brohm coached Western Kentucky to a pair of bowl victories, before leading Purdue to a 38-35 victory over Arizona in last year’s Foster Farms Bowl. The Boilermakers went off a 3-point underdog against the Wildcats. One trend worth noting is the “over” has cashed in each contest, and by healthy margins. An 82.3 combined final tally is soaring 16.1 points past a 67.2 average total. Every team has put up at least 35 points in the three games.
Purdue vs. SEC (Since 1980)
SU Record: 1-3 SU
Average Margin: 4.7
ATS Record: 2-2
Average Line: 2.4
Purdue has not lost by more than a touchdown in three defeats, which includes New Year’s bowl matchups against Georgia in 2000 (Outback) and 2004 (Capital One).
Auburn Tigers (7-5 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Bowl Record: 23-17-2 SU, 13-14-1 ATS (since 1980)
Coach, Bowl Record: Gus Malzahn (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS)
Malzahn has led Auburn to a bowl appearance in each of his six seasons, going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. The “under” is 4-0-1 with the Tigers falling short of its projected team total in all but one contest. First-half points are tough to come by. Auburn averages just 12.8 through the first two quarters.
Auburn vs. Big Ten (Since 1980)
SU Record: 6-4
Average Margin: -0.5
ATS Record: 4-6
Average Line: -3.2
The Tigers have covered two spreads in seven Big Ten matchups kicking off betting favorites during the last 35 years. All have come in neutral-site bowls games.