Missouri Vs. Oklahoma State: Liberty Bowl Trends & Betting History

Wednesday, December 19, 2018 4:26 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 19, 2018 4:26 PM UTC

Old rivals clash in the 2018 Liberty Bowl. Conditions are nearly identical to their last meeting, when then-No. 23 Missouri topped unranked Oklahoma State 41-31 in the 2014 Cotton Bowl Classic.

Liberty Bowl: No. 23 Missouri vs. Oklahoma State

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Since 1965, Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee, has hosted the Liberty Bowl. Kicking off in 1959, current tie-ins include an SEC team versus the No. 4 selection from the Big 12 Conference. No. 23 Missouri squares off against Oklahoma State in 2018. The SEC is 20-9 SU all-time in the event.

Liberty Bowl Results Last 20 Years
Season Winner Loser Final Line Total Winner ATS O/U
1998 Tulane BYU 41-27 -7 N/A W N/A
1999 S. Mississippi Colorado St. 23-17 -5.5 N/A W N/A
2000 Colorado St. Louisville 22-17 -1.5 N/A W N/A
2001 Louisville BYU 28-10 -3 N/A W N/A
2002 TCU Colorado St. 17-3 5 N/A W N/A
2003 Utah S. Mississippi 17-0 -2 N/A W N/A
2004 Louisville Boise St. 44-40 -10.5 N/A L N/A
2005 Tulsa Fresno St. 31-24 7.5 N/A W N/A
2006 S. Carolina Houston 44-36 -5.5 56 W O
2007 Mississippi St. C. Florida 10-3 2 54 W U
2008 Kentucky E. Carolina 25-19 3 41.5 W O
2009 Arkansas E. Carolina 20-17 -7 63.5 L U
2010 C. Florida Georgia 10-6 6.5 53.5 W U
2011 Cincinnati Vanderbilt 31-24 1.5 49.5 W O
2012 Tulsa Iowa St. 31-17 -1.5 51 W U
2013 Mississippi St. Rice 44-7 -7.5 51 W P
2014 Texas A&M W. Virginia 45-37 2 66.5 W O
2015 Arkansas Kansas St. 45-23 -13 58.5 W O
2016 Georgia TCU 31-23 2 49 W O
2017 Iowa St. Memphis 21-20 3.5 65.5 W U

Liberty Bowl Key Betting Numbers (Since 1998)

Average Victory Margin: 10.5
Average Line: -1.6
Favorite ATS: 9-11
Average Total: 55.0 (since 2006)
O/U Record: 6-5-1 (since 2006)
O/U Margin: -5.8
Largest Underdog Upset: Tulsa (+7.5) 31, Fresno State 24 (2005)
Largest Spread: Arkansas -13 (2016)
Largest Rout: Mississippi State 44, Rice 7 (2013)

Liberty Bowl Summary & Trends
  • The game winner is 18-2 ATS since 1998.
  • The loser averages 18.5 points.

Turnover regression looms large in recent matchups. The team forcing fewer takeaways for the season has won nine of the last 12 Liberty Bowls. In 2018, Missouri generates 1.2 turnovers per game, as opposed to 1.0 for Oklahoma State.

Conference H2H: SEC vs. Big 12

Since 1980, the SEC is 31-19 SU (62.0 percent) and 32-18 ATS (64.0 percent) in bowl game matchups against the Big 12. When kicking off the betting favorite, the records improve to an eye-opening 19-4 SU (82.6 percent) and 18-5 ATS (78.3 percent).

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IT'S OFFICIAL: Old rivals will meet again, as @MizzouFootball will play @CowboyFB in the 60th @AutoZone Liberty Bowl on Dec. 31! Two high-powered & exciting offenses will square off. For tickets call 901-795-7700 or click here: https://t.co/0lcynOoaJI #AZLB60 #ShowMe #GoPokes pic.twitter.com/hH3pSlyOHo

— AutoZone Liberty Bowl (@AZOLibertyBowl) December 2, 2018
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No. 23 Missouri Tigers (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Seasons: 117
Bowl Record: 15-17 SU, 7-9 ATS (since 1980)
Coach, Bowl Record: Barry Odom (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Barry Odom came up short of expectations in his lone bowl game, falling 33-16 as 2-point chalk to Texas in the 2017 Texas Bowl.

Missouri vs. Big 12

SU Record: 1-2 (since 2012)
Average Margin: -7.3
ATS Record: 1-2
Average Line: 3.2

Since moving to the SEC from the Big 12 in 2012, the Tigers are just 1-2 SU and ATS against their former conference. They split a pair of bowl games in this stretch, topping Oklahoma State 41-31 as a 1.5-point underdog in the 2014 Cotton Bowl Classic, and losing the aforementioned Texas Bowl.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Seasons: 105
Bowl Record: 18-10 SU, 11-10-1 ATS (since 1980)
Coach, Bowl Record: Mike Gundy (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Longtime Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy is a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS laying 2 points or more on the college football odds board in bowl games. Any number less, or catching points, and his record slumps to 2-4 SU and ATS. The “under” has cashed in all but one during the latter conditions, the Cowboys posting a pedestrian 26.2 points per game.

Oklahoma State vs. SEC

SU Record: 4-8 (since 1980)
Average Margin: -9.5
ATS Record: 5-7
Average Line: 4.4

Outside of Stillwater, the Cowboys are just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS against the SEC since 1980, failing to cover a 6.0 average line by 8.7 points per game. This includes five neutral-site bowl games, where the SEC has won and covered the spread in all but one.

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