Temple Vs. Duke: Independence Bowl Trends & Betting History

Friday, December 14, 2018 3:33 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 14, 2018 3:33 PM UTC

The Independence Bowl has fostered few upsets in recent years with 10 of the last 12 betting favorites winning. Can Duke reverse the trend versus Temple in 2018? Let history help you answer the question. 

2018 Independence Bowl: Temple vs. Duke

The Independence Bowl, played at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana, got its start and name kicking off in celebration of the United States Bicentennial in 1976. The event has hosted over 13 different conferences with multiple tie-ins over the years. In 2018, the American-Athletic Conference sends its first ever Temple to take on Duke from the Atlantic Coast Conference.

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Results Last 20 Years
Season Winner Loser Final Line Total Winner ATS O/U
1998 Ole Miss Texas Tech 35-18 9.5 N/A W N/A
1999 Ole Miss Oklahoma 27-25 4 N/A W N/A
2000 Mississippi St. Texas A&M 43-41 1.5 N/A W N/A
2001 Alabama Iowa St. 14-13 -6 N/A L N/A
2002 Ole Miss Nebraska 27-23 7 N/A W N/A
2003 Arkansas Missouri 27-14 -2.5 N/A W N/A
2004 Iowa St. Miami (OH) 17-13 1 N/A W N/A
2005 Missouri S. Carolina 38-31 3.5 N/A W N/A
2006 Oklahoma St. Alabama 34-31 -2 51 W O
2007 Alabama Colorado 30-24 -4 52 W O
2008 La. Tech N. Illinois 17-10 -1 46.5 W U
2009 Georgia Texas A&M 44-20 -7 65 W U
2010 Air Force Georgia Tech 14-7 -2.5 56 W U
2011 Missouri N. Carolina 41-24 -5 53.5 W O
2012 Ohio Louisiana-Monroe 45-14 6.5 60 W U
2013 Arizona Boston College 42-19 -7.5 57 W O
2014 S. Carolina Miami (FL) 24-21 2.5 62 W U
2015 Va. Tech Tulsa 55-52 -13.5 62.5 L O
2016 N.C. State Vanderbilt 41-17 -6.5 46 W O
2017 Florida St. S. Mississippi 42-13 -16 49 W O

Independence Bowl Key Betting Numbers (Since 1998 Unless Noted)

Average Victory Margin: 11.3
Average Line: -1.9
Favorite ATS: 10-10
Average Total: 55.0 (since 2006)
O/U Record: 7-5 (since 2006)
O/U Margin: 1.7
Largest Underdog Upset: Ole Miss (+9.5) 35, Texas Tech 18 (1998)
Largest Spread: Florida St. -16 (2017)
Largest Rout: Ohio 45, Louisiana-Monroe 14 (2012)

Independence Bowl Summary & Trends
  • The winner has covered the spread in 18 of the last 20 matchups.
  • The game loser averages 21.5 points since 1998.
  • The betting favorite is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS since 2006, covering a -4.7 average line by 10.0 points per game.
  • Teams forcing more takeaways on the season are 10-2 SU and ATS in the last 12 matchups. Temple generates 2.3 and Duke 0.9 turnovers per game in 2018.
Conference H2H: AAC vs. ACC

The ACC is 27-18 SU (60.0 percent) and 23-22 ATS (51.1 percent) in head-to-head battles, kicking off a -8.0 average favorite. The conferences have split 10 bowl games evenly in terms of straight-up victories, but the ACC holds a slight 6-4 ATS edge. The best bet has been the “over.” It is 7-3 with a 10.1 average margin.

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Mentality. @IndyBowl#TempleTUFF pic.twitter.com/VHCAXVJhKM

— Temple Football (@Temple_FB) 11 de dezembro de 2018
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Temple Owls (8-4 SU, 8-3-1 ATS)

Seasons: 71
Bowl Record: 3-4 SU, 2-3 ATS (since 1980)
Coach, Bowl Record: Ed Foley (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Ed Foley, a longtime football fixture at Temple, will tackle his second bowl game as interim head coach. He replaces Geoff Collins, the latter departing early to take over at Georgia Tech. Foley guided the Owls to a 34-26 loss against Wake Forest in the 2016 Military Bowl after Matt Rhule left the program early to take the Baylor job. The university hired Miami (FL) defensive coordinator Matt Diaz as head coach for next season.

Temple vs. ACC

SU Record: 1-15 (since 1980)
Average Margin: -18.8
ATS Record: 6-8-2
Average Line: 18.3

In five attempts, the Owls are winless in games with a single-line or as the betting favorite against the ACC over the last 35 years. This includes going off 8.5- and 10.5-point chalk against Maryland (2012) and Wake Forest (2016). The Terps won the former 37-26 in Philadelphia, while the Demon Deacons surprised 34-26 on neutral soil in the latter.

Duke Blue Devils (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Seasons: 97
Bowl Record: 5-8 SU, 4-3 ATS (since 1980)
Coach, Bowl Record: David Cutcliffe (6-4 SU, 8-2 ATS)

Including five bowl appearances while at Ole Miss (1998-2004), Duke head coach David Cutcliffe has covered the spread in eight of 10 games. Most are high-scoring affairs with a 68.5 average final score. The “over” has cashed in all five Blue Devil bowl games, and by a healthy 12.6 average margin.

Duke vs. AAC

SU Record: 3-0
Average Margin: 26.0
ATS Record: 3-0
Average Line: -10

Cutcliffe and the Blue Devils have won all three of their AAC matchups by two touchdowns or more, going off a 10-point favorite on average. Two occurred on the road. Duke’s defense held each opponent (Memphis, Tulane twice) under their projected team total by a 10.6 average margin.

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