USF Vs. Marshall: Gasparilla Bowl Betting History, Trends

Monday, December 10, 2018 4:30 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 10, 2018 4:30 PM UTC

Marshall head coach Doc Holliday is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in bowl games, the Thundering Herd slight favorites to top South Florida in the 2018 Gasparilla Bowl. Check out these key numbers, past results, and trends before you bet. 

2018 Gasparilla Bowl: Marshall vs. South Florida

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Marshall is making its third appearance in the 11th edition of the Gasparilla Bowl, renamed in 2017 from the St. Petersburg Bowl. From 2010-13 the game was known as the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl.

The Thundering Herd are tied with Central Florida for the most appearances in Gaspirilla Bowl history. They also own the greatest upset in game history, stunning Florida International 20-10 as a 4-point underdogs in 2011.

The American Athletic Conference tie-in welcomes South Florida to its second Gaspirilla appearance. The Bulls routed Memphis 41-14 as 12-point chalk in the inaugural game (2008), generating the largest margin of victory yet. South Florida is catching 2.5 points on the college football oddsboard as of publication.

Results
Season Winner Loser Final Line Total Winner ATS O/U
2008 S. Florida Memphis 41-14 -12 55 W P
2009 Rutgers C. Florida 45-24 -2.5 44.5 W O
2010 Louisville S. Mississippi 31-28 -2.5 58.5 W O
2011 Marshall Florida Int. 20-10 4 48 W U
2012 C. Florida Ball St. 38-17 -7.5 59 W U
2013 E. Carolina Ohio 37-20 -14 62.5 W U
2014 N.C. State C. Florida 34-27 2 49.5 W O
2015 Marshall Connecticut 16-10 -4 44 W U
2016 Mississippi St. Miami (OH) 17-16 -14 58 L U
2017 Temple Florida Int. 28-3 -7 55.5 W U

Gasparilla Bowl Key Betting Numbers

Average Victory Margin: 13.8
Average Line: -5.8
Favorite ATS: 7-3
Average Total: 53.5
O/U Record: 3-6-1
O/U Margin: -5.8
Largest Underdog Upset: Marshall (+4) 20, Florida Int. 10 (2011)
Largest Spread: East Carolina -14 (2013); Mississippi St. -14 (2016)
Largest Rout: South Florida 41, Memphis 14 (2008)

Gasparilla Bowl Summary & Trends

The winner is 9-1 ATS, which includes seven favorites.

The program allowing fewer rushing yards for the season has won and covered seven of 10 matchups. Marshall yields 105.0 per contest on the ground, as opposed to 246.7 for South Florida.

Favorites have won all six Gasparilla Bowls with a total 50 points or greater. The over/under is up to 55.5 points from a 54 opener.

Conference H2H: C-USA vs. AAC

C-USA is 23-18 SU and 19-22 ATS all-time versus the AAC, kicking off a 4.1 average underdog. In six bowl game matchups, C-USA improves to 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS, winning by 9.1 points per game. Each postseason matchup has gone off with a spread in-between a touchdown.

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Arrr ye ready for December 20th? We sure are☠️⚔️🏈 #RaidingRayJay pic.twitter.com/66moEDAev6

— Gasparilla Bowl (@GasparillaBowl) December 6, 2018
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Marshall Thundering Herd (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Seasons: 42
Bowl Record: 11-2 SU, 11-2 ATS
Coach, Bowl Record: Doc Holliday, (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS)

Doc Holliday is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in five bowl appearances leading Marshall. He is covering a -1.8 average line by 10.0 points per game. Holliday’s defense tends to show up in the postseason, yielding just 18.2 points per game. He’s held every opponent below their projected team total by a 9.0 average.

Marshall vs. AAC

SU Record: 2-0
Average Margin: 11.5
ATS Record: 2-0
Average Line: -0.2

In a pair of previous AAC tussles, the Herd topped UConn 16-10 as 4-point chalk in the 2015 St. Petersburg Bowl, and upset Cincinnati 38-21 catching 3.5 at Nippert Stadium in 2017.

South Florida Bulls (7-5 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Seasons: 19
Bowl Record: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS
Coach, Bowl Record: Charlie Strong, (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS)

Charlie Strong led South Florida to a 38-34 victory over Texas Tech in last year’s Birmingham Bowl, his lone appearance with the Bulls. Including stints coaching Florida, Louisville and Texas, Strong has surpassed his projected team total in five of seven bowl games. His squads average 25.6 points per game. In three games as the betting favorite, Strong has won and covered each. He is 1-3 SU and ATS spotted points.

South Florida vs. C-USA

SU Record: 20-13
Average Margin: 4.3
ATS Record: 17-15
Average Line: -2.1

South Florida is 2-1 SU and ATS against C-USA opponents in bowl games, covering a -4.5 average line by 6.8 points per game. All coming prior to Strong’s arrival, the Bulls surrender an average 329.3 passing yards through the air. They’ve allowed as many in a contest four times the last two seasons.

Read Our Gasparilla Bowl Preview

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