Kentucky Vs. Penn State: Citrus Bowl Trends & Betting History

Saturday, December 22, 2018 2:29 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 22, 2018 2:29 PM UTC

The last 10 Citrus Bowls have scheduled ranked matchups. The higher-rated team is 8-2 SU and ATS. Can No. 12 Penn State continue the trend versus No. 14 Kentucky in 2018? 

2019 Citrus Bowl: No.14 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Penn State

Founded in 1947 as the Tangerine Bowl, the Citrus Bowl is the richest of all non-College Football Playoff games, awarding upwards of $4.25 million per program. The traditional New Year’s Day game has scheduled a ranked matchup in 29 of the last 30 years. In 2018, No. 12 Penn State tussles with No. 14 Kentucky.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3690888, "sportsbooksIds":[19,92,169,999996,1096], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Citrus Bowl Results Last 20 Years
Season Winner Loser Final Line Total Winner ATS O/U
1998 Michigan Arkansas 45-31 -3 N/A W N/A
1999 Michigan St. Florida 37-34 2.5 N/A W N/A
2000 Michigan Auburn 31-28 -7.5 N/A L N/A
2001 Tennessee Michigan 45-17 -3 N/A W N/A
2002 Auburn Penn St. 13-9 7 N/A W N/A
2003 Georgia Purdue 34-27 -3.5 N/A W N/A
2004 Iowa LSU 30-25 6.5 N/A W N/A
2005 Wisconsin Auburn 24-10 10 N/A W N/A
2006 Wisconsin Arkansas 17-14 1.5 45 W U
2007 Michigan Florida 41-35 10.5 59 W O
2008 Georgia Michigan St. 24-12 -9 56 W U
2009 Penn St. LSU 19-17 0 42.5 W U
2010 Alabama Michigan St. 49-7 -10 51.5 W O
2011 S. Carolina Nebraska 30-13 -3 46 W U
2012 Georgia Nebraska 45-31 -9.5 62 W O
2013 S. Carolina Wisconsin 34-24 2 51 W O
2014 Missouri Minnesota 33-17 -4.5 46.5 W O
2015 Michigan Florida 41-7 -4 40 W O
2016 LSU Louisville 29-9 -3 58.5 W U
2017 Notre Dame LSU 21-17 2 51 W U

Citrus Bowl Key Betting Numbers (Since 1998)

Average Victory Margin: 12.9
Average Line: -0.9
Favorite ATS: 10-10
Average Total: 50.8 (since 2006)
O/U Record: 6-6 (since 2006)
O/U Margin: -1.9
Largest Underdog Upset: Michigan (+10.5) 41, Florida 35 (2008)
Largest Spread: Florida -10.5 (2008)
Largest Rout: Alabama 49, Michigan State 7 (2011)

Citrus Bowl Summary & Trends
  • The last 20 winners of the Citrus Bowl are 19-1 ATS, besting a -0.9 average line by 12.0 points per game.
  • The loser in this span averages just 19.2 points per game.
  • Since 2003, the squad averaging more passing yards entering the matchup is 11-4 SU and ATS. Penn State throws for 217.8 yards per game, as opposed to 164.8 for Kentucky.
Conference H2H: SEC vs. Big Ten

Since 1980, The SEC is 75-45-1 SU (62.5 percent) and 66-52-3 ATS (55.9 percent) in head-to-head battles with the Big Ten, going off a -2.5 average favorite. The majority of contests occur in the postseason in this span, where the SEC is 51-29 SU (63.8 percent) and 45-34-1 ATS (57.0 percent) in bowl games. The SEC is particularly dominant, and often heavier chalk, when owning a higher average margin of victory then its Big Ten opponent, going 32-11 SU (74.4 percent) and 26-16-1 ATS (61.9 percent) overall. In the last decade, the SEC is 15-1 SU and 12-3-1 ATS under these conditions.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

The 73rd annual #VRBOCitrusBowl will be played between @UKFootball and @PennStateFball! https://t.co/FvrbGOfxKs pic.twitter.com/kP88ypHIdQ

— VRBO Citrus Bowl (@CitrusBowl) 2 de dezembro de 2018
\n"}[/]

No. 14 Kentucky Wildcats (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Seasons: 103
Bowl Record: 8-9 SU, 6-6 ATS ( since 1980)
Coach, Bowl Record: Mark Stoops (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)

Head coach Mark Stoops has led Kentucky to a pair of bowl appearances the last two season, losing both outright, but covering a touchdown spread in a 24-23 defeat to Northwestern in last year’s Music City Bowl. Finding the end zone is problematic for the Wildcats, averaging just 20.5 points. Stoops tends to get off to a slow start as well, putting up 10 first-half points overall.

Kentucky vs. Big Ten (Since 1980)

SU Record: 15-10
Average Margin: 2.1
ATS Record: 14-11
Average Line: 0.6

Since 1980, Kentucky is 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in three bowl game matchups against the Big Ten. They have not scored more than 23 points in a contest.

No. 12 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)

Seasons: 125
Bowl Record: 29-17-2 SU, 18-11-1 ATS (since 1980)
Coach, Bowl Record: James Franklin (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS)

Including his three years coaching Vanderbilt (2011-13), James Franklin has led his program to a bowl game every season, going 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS overall. Postseason matchups tend to be high-scoring contests. Six of seven have cashed the “over” and by an eye-opening 13.3 average margin. Franklin’s squads average 33.6 points, yet yield 30.4 to opponents.

Penn State vs. SEC (since 1980)

SU Record: 11-12
Average Margin: 0.1
ATS Record: 10-12-1

Sicne 1980, Penn State is 7-4 SU and 6-4-1 ATS in bowl game matchups versus SEC opponents. It has allowed more than 24 points once in 11 contests, a 37-24 drubbing by Florida in the 2011 Outback Bowl.

Check Out SBR's Citrus Bowl Preview
comment here