California Vs. TCU: Cheez-It Bowl Trends & Betting History

Friday, December 14, 2018 2:38 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 14, 2018 2:38 PM UTC

The Big 12 conference has won the last five Cheez-It Bowls. Can TCU keep the streak alive in 2018 against Cal? Here are some numbers to help you answer the question. 

2018 Cheez-It Bowl: California vs. TCU

The Cheez-It Bowl, in existence since 1989, has kicked off with 10 former names, most notably the Copper (1989-1996), Insight (1997-2011), and Cactus Bowls (2012-17). Played in Arizona, currently at Chase Field in Phoenix, recent conference tie-ins include the Pac-12 and Big 12 conferences. The 2018 matchup schedules California versus TCU. The Horned Frogs opened 2-point favorites, the line adjusting to a pick ‘em across most major online sports books as of publication.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3690914, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,1275,118,43], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Results Last 20 Years (Unless Noted)
Season Winner Loser Final Line Total Winner ATS O/U
1998 Missouri W. Virginia 34-31 -3.5 N/A L N/A
1999 Colorado Boston College 62-28 -7.5 N/A W N/A
2000 Iowa St. Pitt 37-29 2 N/A W N/A
2001 Syracuse Kansas St. 26-3 6 N/A W N/A
2002 Pitt Oregon St. 38-13 2.5 N/A W N/A
2003 Cal Va. Tech 52-49 3 N/A W N/A
2004 Oregon St. Notre Dame 38-21 -4 N/A W N/A
2005 Arizona St. Rutgers 45-40 -9 N/A L N/A
2006 Texas Tech Minnesota 44-41 -6.5 66 L O
2007 Oklahoma St. Indiana 49-33 -6 68.5 W O
2008 Kansas Minnesota 42-21 -8.5 59 W O
2009 Iowa St. Minnesota 14-13 2 47.5 W U
2010 Iowa Missouri 27-24 2.5 46.5 W O
2011 Oklahoma Iowa 31-14 -13.5 57.5 W U
2012 Michigan St. TCU 17-16 2 40.5 W U
2013 Kansas St. Michigan 31-14 -7 52 W U
2014 Oklahoma St. Washington 30-22 5.5 57 W U
2015 W. Virginia Arizona St. 43-42 -1.5 64 L O
2016 Baylor Boise St. 31-12 7 68.5 W U
2017 Kansas St. UCLA 35-17 -6.5 61.5 W U

Cheez-It Bowl Key Betting Numbers (Since 1998 Unless Noted)

Average Victory Margin: 12.1
Average Line: -2.0
Favorite ATS: 7-13
Average Total: 57.4 (since 2006)
O/U Record: 5-7 (since 2006)
O/U Margin: -2.1
Largest Underdog Upset: Baylor (+7) 31, Boise St. 12 (2016)
Largest Spread: Oklahoma -13.5 (2011)
Largest Rout: Colorado 62, Boston College 28 (1999)

Cheez-It Bowl Summary & Trends
  • The winner is 16-4 ATS, covering a -2.0 average spread by 10.1 point s per game.
  • The winner averages 36.3 points.
  • Underdogs have won five of the last nine meetings outright.
  • The Big 12 has won every clash against Pac-12 teams, all occurring in three of the last four events: Oklahoma State 30, Washington 22 (2015); West Virginia 43, Arizona State 42 (2016); Kansas State 35, UCLA 17 (2017).
  • The team with the least efficient rushing defense has won and covered the spread in eight of the last 12 events. Cal yields 3.62 and TCU 3.66 yards per carry in 2018.
Conference H2H: Big 12 VS. Pac-12

Since the current formation of the Pac-12 (2011), the Big 12 is 17-12 SU (58.6 percent) and 17-11-1 ATS (60.7 percent), going off a 0.7 average underdog. In bowl games, the Big 12 has won 12 of 16 matchups, but is just 9-7 ATS (56.2 percent) overall. Pac-12 teams tend to struggle against the high-powered offenses of the Big 12 under these conditions, allowing 34.4 points per game. The Big 12 has surpassed its projected team total in 12 games.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

THE MATCHUP IS SET! @TCUfootball and @CalFootball are coming to the 2018 #CheezItBowl ! Get your tickets NOW: https://t.co/oTomtnZ2Pf
#GoFrogs | #GoBears pic.twitter.com/W4NAVoYewy

— Cheez-It® Bowl (@CheezItBowl) 2 de dezembro de 2018
\n"}[/]

California Golden Bears (7-5 SU, 5-5-2 ATS)

Seasons: 103
Bowl Record: 11-10-1 SU, 6-7 ATS (since 1980)
Coach, Bowl Record: Justin Wilcox (0-0)

This is Wilcox’s first bowl game as head coach. He’s experienced 10 as a defensive coordinator in stints with Boise State (2006-09), Tennessee (2010-11), Washington (2012-13), USC (2014-15) and Wisconsin (2016).

Cal vs. Big 12

SU Record: 11-5 (since 1980)
Average Margin: 5.7
ATS Record: 10-5-1
Average Line: 2.2

Despite a winning record against the Big 12 in the last 35 years, the Golden Bears are just 1-2 SU and ATS in bowl game matchups.

TCU Horned Frogs (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Seasons: 113
Bowl Record: 16-16-1 SU, 9-10-1 ATS (since 1980)
Coach, Bowl Record: Gary Patterson (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS)

In 16 bowl games coaching the Horned Frogs, Gary Patterson allows just 21.4 points per game. He is just 3-9 ATS when going off the betting favorite, however, failing to cover a -5.0 average line by 0.9 points. Since 2006, the “under” is 8-2 under these conditions.

Read Our Cheez-It Bowl Game Preview
comment here