Arkansas State Vs. Nevada: Arizona Bowl Trends & Betting History

Tuesday, December 18, 2018 7:11 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 18, 2018 7:11 PM UTC

The 2018 Arizona Bowl welcomes its inaugural winner Nevada back to Tucson to take on Arkansas State of the Sun Belt Conference in what organizers are marketing the Dances with Wolves Bowl. Get betting history, trends, and key numbers for one of the newest NCAA postseason events here. 

2018 Arizona Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Nevada

One of three new bowl games certified by the NCAA in 2015, the Arizona Bowl takes place at Arizona Stadium in Tucson with Mountain West and either Conference USA or Sun Belt tie-ins. The fourth edition sees Arkansas State a 2-point favorite over inaugural winner Nevada.

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Arizona Bowl Results
Season Winner Loser Final Line Total Winner ATS O/U
2015 Nevada Colorado St. 28-23 4.5 55.5 W U
2016 Air Force S. Alabama 45-21 -15.5 56.5 W O
2017 New Mexico St. Utah St. 26-20 4.5 61.5 W U

Arizona Bowl Key Betting Numbers

Average Victory Margin: 11.6
Average Line: -2.2
Favorite ATS: 1-2
Average Total: 57.8
O/U Record: 1-2
O/U Margin: -3.5
Largest Underdog Upset: New Mexico St. (+4.5) 26, Utah State 20 (2017); Nevada (+4.5) 28, Colorado St. 23 (2015)
Largest Spread: Air Force -15.5 (2016)
Largest Rout: Air Force 45, South Alabama 21 (2016)

Arizona Bowl Summary & Trends
  • The game winner has covered every spread.
  • The game loser has not scored more than 23 points in defeat.
  • The eventual game winner has put up 19 points or more in the first half.
  • Each winner surrenders fewer rushing yards per game entering the matchup than the opposition. Arkansas State yields 201.4 per contest, as opposed to 132.2 for Nevada.
Conference H2H: Mountain West vs. Sun Belt

The Mountain West is 30-14 SU (68.2 percent) and 24-19-1 ATS (55.8 percent) all-time against Sun Belt foes, going off a -10.1 average favorite on the college football oddsboard.

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Currently resisting the urge to make this the official #novaAZBOWL shirt pic.twitter.com/tzVmrRxjlA

— Dances With Wolves Bowl (@novaAZBOWL) 16 de dezembro de 2018
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Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Seasons: 37
Bowl Record: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS
Coach, Bowl Record: Blake Anderson (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Blake Anderson’s Arkansas State has claimed victory in just one of four bowl matchups, a 31-13 upset as 4-point underdogs over then-No. 8 Central Florida in the 2016 Cure Bowl. Defense is largely missing in the losses, the Red Wolves gifting 63 (Toledo), 47 (La. Tech), and 35 points (Middle Tennessee, 2017).

Arkansas State vs. Mountain West

SU Record: 2-1
Average Margin: 0.0
ATS Record: 1-2
Average Line: 0.0

Despite winning two of three contests against Mountain West foes, the Red Wolves failed to reach their projected team total in each, by an average 5.7 points.

Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Seasons: 32
Bowl Record: 5-10 SU, 4-8 ATS (since 1980)
Coach, Bowl Record: Jay Norvell

In two seasons leading the Wolf Pack, this is Norvell’s first bowl appearance as head coach. It’s worth noting the “under” is 7-2 in Nevada postseason matchups since 2006, the final score staying 12.0 points south of a 60.6 average total.

Nevada vs. Sun Belt

SU Record: 0-1
Average Margin: -13
ATS Record: 0-1
Average Line: 0.0

Nevada lost 16-3 against Louisiana Lafayette in the 2014 New Orleans Bowl, it’s only clash against a Sun Belt foe. The game kicked off a pick ‘em.

Check Out SBR's Arizona Bowl Preview
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