2014 College Football Defensive Duds

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, October 14, 2014 4:48 PM GMT

This week's statistical list in college football betting focuses on the nation's worst defensive teams and the parameters used to isolate them.  

Last week in this very spot, I authored an article entitled “2014 College Football Defensive Powerhouses.” It featured a group of 13 teams, all of whom met 5 strict parameters that qualified them for Defensive Dandy status. At the conclusion of the article, I pointed out that one of the ways to use these teams was in the role of meaningful underdog. My LTS users profited handsomely from that concept with TCU and Louisville easily covering the spread. In fact, Louisville was the rare but vaunted 6% CFB side that ran the record on these plays to 35-4 ATS (89%). 

This week, we go to the other end of the spectrum to take a look at the 2014 CFB Defensive Duds. This is a list of the 19 worst defensive teams on the CFB landscape after 7 weeks of action, or approximately one half of the regular season of play. As with our group of Defensive Dandies, all teams must meet my strict defensive requirements to qualify for the list. The following is a list of those 5 parameters.

Allow 30 or more PPG

Allow 200 or more RYPG

Allow 4.5 or more YPR

Allow 450 or more total yards

Allow 6.0 or more YP play

With those parameters in mind, below is a list of all teams who qualify heading into week 8 of college football picks for Saturday, October 18, 2014. 

Team

PPG

RYPG

YPR

Total Yards

YP Play

Arizona St

31

207

4.9

453

6.1

Bowling Green

38

217

5.1

568

6.5

Cincinnati

41

271

5.4

574

7.0

E Michigan

40

223

5.5

514

6.7

Florida ATL

35

216

5.4

476

6.3

Fresno St

36

213

4.5

471

6.2

Georgia St

42

228

5.1

481

6.3

Idaho

39

277

6.3

495

7.4

Illinois

36

271

5.3

485

6.1

Kent St

35

213

4.8

466

6.3

New Mexico

32

282

6.4

493

6.6

New Mexico St

37

332

6.4

464

6.5

Old Dominion

37

235

5.1

467

6.0

SMU

49

242

5.8

557

7.1

S Mississippi

37

246

5.7

487

6.8

Troy

39

204

5.0

456

6.2

Tulsa

41

216

6.0

509

7.4

UNLV

37

276

5.7

537

6.6

W Kentucky

38

249

5.0

517

6.4

 

Please note, that there are no fewer than 15 other CFB teams who are on the cusp of falling onto this list. For that reason, when handicapping the CFB games each week I update the list of both Defensive Powerhouses and Defensive Duds.

Once we have our list, it is helpful only if we know how to use it. Some of the more obvious ways to use it are to consider playing against these teams in the role of favorite, and in particularly in the role of double-digit favorite. Other ways to use this involve situations that include negative momentum, or letdowns. The other option is to look for opponents with either a strong running game, or a balanced offensive attack who could steamroll these outmanned opponents. All these propositions, and others, can be strong indicators of ATS success on college football odds when fading these teams.

In the next two weeks, this space will focus on the offensive side of the ball as we look at 200 Club candidates, as well as the list of teams who are in position to steamroll their opposition by outrushing them by a greater than a 2:1 margin.