#1 Clemson, Toledo, Florida Atlantic, Georgia Southern Lines All Rise 3 Points or More

Miami Hurricanes

Kevin Stott

Friday, December 1, 2017 3:28 PM GMT

Friday, Dec. 1, 2017 3:28 PM GMT

With it being a less voluminous slate, let’s take a look at all of the games for College Football Week 14 and provide all the picks we’ve found while researching this tasty slab of holiday ham.

Friday, December 1, 2017—Pac-12 Conference Championship Game#11 USC vs. #14 Stanford—Open: USC -3 // High Now: USC -4

Movement Analysis: This Pac-12 Championship Game has moved 1-point upward on Trojans money (56.7% Consensus on Wednesday) with Sharps and the early and often perceived smart money on USC and QB Sam Darnold. But Bryce Love (215 Rushes, 1,848 Rushing yards, 16 TDs) and Stanford are playing really well right now and the Site (Santa Clara) should favor the underdogs with a Southern California versus Northern California mentality for this game and the Cardinal are 3-1 SU and ATS against the Trojans the L4 series meetings (Over 3-1) and 15-11 ATS the L26 since 1992 and certainly won’t be intimidated by USC here. Backing Stanford on the Moneyline seems like a potentially more value-laden approach here (STAN +167, Sportbet.com) in a game it will expect to win on Friday night (ESPN, 8 pm EST/5 pm PST).

The Cardinal have W8 of 9 heading in with a game at Washington State their only Loss while USC is on a roll of its own, having W4 straight and 6 of 7 and when these two Pac-12 heavies met earlier this season at the Rose Bowl in Los Angeles in conference Regular Season play, the Trojans painted the Cardinal a pretty shade of pink in a 42-24 SU and ATS Win (thus the Point Spread and perceptions here) in a game which went Over the posted Total (55) by 11 points. Sticking with the gut here and first instincts and expecting Stanford to play the way it did against Notre Dame and Washington and win this game outright with Love (17 Rushes, 168 Rushing yards, 9.4 ypc, TD) running wild like the California wind and surpassing the 2,000-yard Rushing mark and scoring thrice in the process.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Stanford 34 USC 27Free College Football Pick: Stanford Moneyline +167Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Saturday, December 2, 2017—Mid-American Conference Championship GameToledo vs. Akron — Open: Toledo -18 // High Now: Toledo -21½

Movement Analysis: Heavy Toledo action has driven this number up 3½ points for this Mid-American Conference Championship Game between the Rockets and Akron from Ford Field (FieldTurf) in Detroit early on Saturday (ESPN, 12 pm ET/9 am PT) in a game where it seems the oddsmakers have left the Total short at 57 (Bovada), although the number has been wagered up 3 points from its opening 54. The East Division-winning Zips (7-5 SU, 6-2 in MAC) will likely be up against it against the West Division-winning Rockets (9-2 SU, 6-1 in MAC) here and the series Trends show that Toledo is 7-3 ATS the L10 meetings as are the Favorites when these two play, so it seems like smart money from the Wiseguys who love betting the MAC.

The last time these two played was in Week 9 this season at Toledo, where the Rockets stomped a mudhole in Akron, 48-21, easily covering ATS as big 15-point Home chalks, so the early bettors remembered that recency and are looking at the 5 SU Losses Akron has heading in. Toledo comes in winners of 7 of 8 both SU and ATS—Ohio on the Road was its only SU and ATS setback for the high-flying Rockets over that span—and Toledo is 10-2 SU the L12 meetings and have W2 in a row SU and ATS, winning by 27 and 31 (in 2016) and having 12 more First Downs than the Zips in both meetings. The key here for Akron will be to try to control Pace and slow the game down as when Toledo—averaging 41.0 ppg L6—gets rolling, opponents best look out.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Toledo 47 Akron 23Free College Football Pick: Toledo -21½ & Over 57Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Saturday, December 2, 2017—Big 12 Conference Championship Game#3 Oklahoma vs. #10 TCU — Open: Oklahoma -6 // High Now: Oklahoma -7½

Movement Analysis: Money on Heisman Trophy hopeful Baker Mayfield and #3 Oklahoma (71.3% Consensus, Wednesday) and it makes sense with Motivation the biggest factor here: If the Sooners simply hold serve and win this Big 12 Conference Championship Game over upstart TCU, then they will no doubt be making the 2017/18 CFP Playoff. But this one should be a dog-fight, with the Horned Frogs only path to the CFP being a Win here and major, major collapses by the other top-for CFP ranked teams (besides Oklahoma), Clemson (#1), Auburn (#2) and Wisconsin (#4) who will all be playing in their respective conference title tilts on Saturday in the biggest day of the season and a TV bonanza on Saturday (FOX, 12:30 pm ET/9:30 am PT). Croak ‘em if you got ‘em.

Oklahoma (+400 to win CFP Championship Game, Bovada) will head in here having W7 game, scoring 29, 42, 49, 62, 38, 41 and 59 points in the process in typical late-season Sooners style, so 19th-year Head Coach Bob Stoops (127-105-1 ATS) has to like the way his Oklahoma (7-5 ATS, 4-1 ATS L5) team is playing and this one will all come down to whether or not the vaunted Horned Frogs Defense (15.7 ppg, #8 FBS) can outplay the high-powered Oklahoma Offense (45.3 ppg, #4 FBS) in a game which currently sees the Total in a 63 to 64 range. The Sooners are 8-3 SU the L11 in this now Big 12 series while TCU is 6-5 ATS the L11 meetings, but Oklahoma is 3-0 SU the L3 and 2-1 ATS, so recency bias and the ability to score easier in a big game win out. The Sooners the better? Mayfield & Co. will find ways to score in this crucial spot.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Oklahoma 33 TCU 23Free College Football Pick: Oklahoma -7Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Saturday, December 2, 2017—MWC Conference Championship Game#25 Fresno State at Boise State — Open: BOISE ST -9½ // Low Now: BOISE ST -8 (BookMaker)

Movement Analysis: Money on visitors and now #25 Fresno State (55.7% Consensus Wednesday) has driven this number down as much as 1-point-and-a-half and that’s understandable with these two schools having just played in Week 13 in their MWC Regular Season finales in a game that saw host Fresno State roll to a 28-17 Win as 6½-point Home Underdogs in Fresno (49). And the Broncos have been absolutely awful at Home at Albertsons Stadium lately on their famous Blue Turf, going 2-12-1 ATS the L15 but the series Trends here are actually all Boise State, with the Broncos having gone 12-4 ATS the L16 in this series. But Fresno State (+0.75 TO Margin, Tied #16) was a bad team for the bulk of that span and the Bulldogs (9-3 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) have been very impressive this campaign under 1st-year Head Coach Jeff Tedford (9-2-1- 1 ATS) with early non-Conference games against Alabama and Washington toughening up Fresno State (+9.7 ppg vs ATS).

With the Bulldogs heading in with the best ATS record in FBS over the past 23 games (16-6-1 ATS), taking QB Marcus McMaryion (14 TDs, 3 INTs), RB Jordan Mims, WR KeeSean Johnson and a game team that can win the game outright (FSU +275 Moneyline, 5Dimes) and 8½ points at Boise State (Intertops) in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on Saturday (ESPN, 7:45 pm EST/4:45 pm PST) seems like a no-brainer.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Fresno State 30 Boise State 27Free College Football Pick: Fresno State +8½Best Line Offered: at Intertops

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Saturday, December 2, 2017—ACC Conference Championship Game#1 Clemson vs #7 Miami Florida — Open: Clemson -6½ -105 // High: Clemson -10 (BetOnline)

Movement Analysis: The Sharps pounded #1 Clemson (56.5% Consensus) the second the lines were released on Sunday, immediately sending this number to 9½ at 5Dimes where other quickly followed suit with the influx of Tigers money for this massive ACC Championship Game from Bank of America Stadium (Grass) in Charlotte on Saturday evening (ABC, 8:07 pm ET/5:07 pm PT) between Atlantic Division winners Clemson (11-1 SU, 7-1 in ACC) and Coastal Division winners Miami Florida (10-1 SU, 7-1 in ACC) in a game which will likely send the winner on to the CFP Playoff and the loser, even Kelly Bryant and defending national champion Tigers, to a lessor Bowl they’ll hate but have to pretend to love. Smile for the camera, Cici.

The series Trends here show Clemson is 4-1 ATS the L5 meetings—the Over is 4-0 the L4—and this is a tough call with both teams very close and Turnovers—Miami FLorida is #1 in FBS in TO margin—Field Position and intangibles likely to determine the winner. The Hurricanes come in on a downer emotionally, having their unbeaten season thwarted by Pitt and Clemson is playing very well now, but still, the Tigers lost so much elite talent from last year’s squad that this one seems like a tossup and small lean to a hungry Miami of F-L-A side getting double-digit points.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Clemson 30 Miami Florida 27Free College Football Pick: No Action

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CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

FLORIDA ATLANTIC opened -8½ vs. North Texas, up 3½ points to -12

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -1 vs. UMass, up ½ to -1½

Georgia Southern opened PK vs. COASTAL CAROLINA, up 3 to -3 (Bovada)

GEORGIA STATE opened -4 vs. Idaho, up 2 to -6

NEW MEXICO STATE -7½ vs. Massachusetts, up 2 to -9½

#8 Ohio State opened -6½ vs. #3 Wisconsin, up ½ point to -7 (Intertops)

FLORIDA STATE vs. UL Monroe, opened -27½, down ½ point to -27

#12 UCF opened -7½ vs. #16 Memphis, down ½ point to -7

ARKANSAS STATE opened -15 vs. UL Lafayette, down ½ point to -14½

APPALACHIAN STATE opened -1 vs. Troy, down 1 point to -PK

#4 Auburn opened -2½ vs. #6 Georgia, down ½ to -2 at some sportsbooks, -2½ at most and at -3 at one (+100, Bovada)

Toledo-Akron, opened 54, up 4 points to 58 (-107, Pinnacle)

Oklahoma-TCU, opened 61½, up 2½ points to 64 (Heritage)

UL Lafayette at Appalachian State, opened 57½, up 2½ points to 60

Troy at Arkansas State, opened 57½, up 2½ points to 60

Fresno State at Boise State, opened 48, up 2½ points to 50½ (-107, Pinnacle)

Idaho at Georgia State opened 48½, down 3 points to 45½ (-105, Heritage)

Auburn-Georgia opened 51, down 3½ points to 47½ (-107, Pinnacle)

Clemson-Miami Florida opened 48, down 2 points to 46

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