'Under' 52 Between Clemson & NC State is the College Football Pick

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, October 29, 2015 4:48 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 29, 2015 4:48 PM GMT

We’ll be examining Saturday’s college football game between Clemson & NC State. Go inside to read our betting preview article culminated with a college football pick on the total.

#3 Clemson vs. NC State
North Carolina State (5-2) will be out to upset undefeated and 3rd ranked Clemson (7-0) in an ACC battle on Saturday. The opening kickoff at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina is slated for 3:30 PM ET. Current (10/28) college football odds indicate that Clemson is a 10 point favorite, and the posted total is 52. Clemson hammered North Carolina State at home last season by a score of 41-0.

 

Stout Defenses
The Clemson Tigers receive a lot of acclaim due to their impressive offensive numbers they’ve put up this season, and rightfully so. However, their defense flies under the radar. The Tigers stop unit is allowing just 14 points and 263 yards per game. They’ve been especially tough to run against, allowing opponents 106 yards rushing per contest, and holding them to a paltry 2.9 yards per attempt. Last week at Miami, they held the Hurricanes to 146 yards of total offense during a 58-0 blowout win.

North Carolina State also has a very good defense that not a lot of people are aware of. They’re allowing just 16 points and 251 yards per game. The Wolfpack has allowed 21 points or less in six of their first seven games, and no opponent has scored more than 28 points against them in 2015. If they have a flaw on that side of the ball, it comes in the way of forcing only 6 turnovers thus far. However, they’ve been a beneficiary of offensive and special teams units that have committed a meager 5 turnovers all year, and have rarely been put in a disadvantageous position.

 

Prelude to a Betting Angle
Clemson amassed 567 yards of total offense in last week’s rout of Miami. North Carolina State averaged a whopping 9.5 yards per offensive play during a 35-17 win at Wake Forest last Saturday. The combination of those two statistical facts sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle.

Any road team (Clemson) with a total 49.5 to 56.0, coming off a game which they had 525 yards or more of total offense, and they’re facing an opponent (NC State) that averaged 6.75 yards or more per offensive play in their previous game, resulted in that road team going 29-7 (80.6%) under the total since 2011. The average total in those contests was 53.0, and there was a combined average of 44.9 points per game scored. As a matter of fact, since the start of the 2013 season, this exact betting angle has gone 20-3 (87%) under the total.

I like this game to be a relatively low scoring affair in comparison to its current total. One of my college football picks for Saturday will be indicative of that exact sentiment.

College Football Pick: Under 52 at TheGreek

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