Brewers-Marlins: Starting Pitchers & Missing Hitters to Keep Scoring Down

Tuesday, July 10, 2018 4:20 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 10, 2018 4:20 PM UTC

The Brewers and Marlins close out their season series against one another with the finale of a three-game set in Miami on Wednesday night (7:10 ET).

Milwaukee at MiamiWednesday, 7:10 p.m. ETFree MLB Pick: Under (& Brewers)Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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The Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins will be finished playing one another for 2018 following Wednesday night’s game in south Florida. It’s a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch from Marlins Park with no national TV.

Around 60 percent of teams that lead their division at the All-Star break win it in the wild-card era, and that’s what the Brewers are attempting to do with the Cubs in hot pursuit in the NL Central. You may remember that Milwaukee led the NL Central at the break last year by 5.5 games over the Cubs but that Brewers didn’t make the postseason. They were the only first-place team at the 2017 break to not win their division. Chicago is the -190 division favorite at Bovada with Milwaukee at +170.

Milwaukee is a bit short-handed right now with outfielder Ryan Braun and catcher Manny Pina recently each landing on the disabled list. Braun is a shell of his former MVP/steroid self but still a decent offensive threat, batting .235 with 10 homers and 35 RBIs. Incidentally, one of the biggest All-Star snubs in the National league was Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar. You may not even know who that guy is, but he’s leading all NL first baseman in homers and RBIs and is second in batting average. From 2014-16, this barely played in the majors. Aguilar is among the Final Vote candidates in the NL with Dodgers infielder Max Muncy, Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter, Giants first baseman Brandon Belt and Nationals shortstop Trea Turner.

Miami’s All-Star is catcher J.T. Realmuto, and I doubt he’s a Marlin by the night of July 31 as the team is widely expected to trade him. He should bring back a nice haul as Realmuto is under team control for two more seasons and leads NL catchers in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base-plus-slugging percentage, hits, doubles and RBIs. He’s Miami’s only All-Star and the first Marlins All-Star catcher since Paul Lo Duca in 2005. Realmuto was placed on paternity leave Monday so it’s unclear if he’ll be back by Wednesday. He’s allowed to miss three games, and I’d presume he would.

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— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) July 10, 2018
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Probable Pitchers: Peralta vs. Straily

It’s 22-year-old Dominican rookie right-hander Freddy Peralta (4-1, 2.14) for the Brewers in his seventh start and first vs. Miami. With Milwaukee having some injuries in the rotation, Peralta has been a godsend. He has allowed more than three earned just once. He went six innings last time out and beat Atlanta, surrendering one run and three hits. If there’s one concern it’s Peralta’s 15 walks. His fastball averages just 91.2 mph yet he throws it more than 80 percent of the time.

Peralta’s 46 strikeouts through his first six games are most in franchise history, 14 ahead of Gary Beare's 32 in 1976. Right-handed hitters are batting just .058 against him with only two extra-base hits (both doubles) in 52 at-bats.

Miami’s Dan Straily (3-4, 4.55) could also be a trade candidate. His value is improving as Straily is working on three straight quality starts but has just one victory since May 18. He took a no-decision in Washington on Friday, giving up two runs over six innings. The Marlins give him an average of 4.23 runs of support per game but have topped four runs just once in his past seven – that was his only victory in that span.

Straily missed the Brewers earlier this season. He’s 4-0 with a 2.12 ERA in 34.0 career innings vs. Milwaukee. Former Marlin Christian Yelich is 2-for-5 with a homer off his former teammate. Keon Broxton is 2-for-7 with a homer.

  • Under is 47-18-2 in Brewers' last 67 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 4-1 in Brewers' last 5 Wednesday games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Straily’s last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.

The Marlins don’t know Peralta, while Straily has been strong of late and good historically vs. Milwaukee. No Braun and probably no Realmuto. That leads to a top Wednesday MLB pick of an ‘under.’ Smaller lean to the Brewers on the side as Miami has still won just one of Straily’s past eight.

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